🌱Jayensee

🌱Jayensee

@jayensee.bsky.social

Hobby league of legends analyst, also talk about whatever topics catch my interest (usually related to data analysis) Giving the butterfly app a try Jayensee on YouTube and GitHub. jayensee.github.io

35 followers88 following293 posts

I fucking hate Excel Just lost an afternoon of work because apparently it can randomly stop saving changes even if you manually save You find out when you open the file again and it's an old version (but date modified has the timestamp of the save that didn't happen) 🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃

Here's an essay I wrote for the PoE subreddit about crafting in Path of Exile 1 and 2 It was removed for being low effort (go figure) but it seemed a waste to not post it somewhere

A month after PoE 2 went into early access, it's still getting more players than PoE 1 did at its peak This game is stupid good... And it's only like 30% finished I'm pretty sure I haven't even launched any other game since it came out

I think this is my 3rd year in a row getting the artist clip from Sammy Rae Toby Fox takes the lead just because the Undertale OST is my default "lock in" music, kinda wish it didn't count so I could see who's number 6 (probably Miniature Tigers)

YouTube algo is so weird, randomly started showing the short I posted yesterday to a bunch of people and then abruptly stopped completely The retention wasn't even going down as it showed up in more feeds

If you don't want your data to be used to train ML models then you should focus your complaints on Bluesky's ToS Enough community outrage could lead to a restriction being added that expressly forbids using the data for training As is this is probably squarely within the rules

Daniel van Strien@danielvanstrien.bsky.social

First dataset for the new @huggingface.bsky.social @bsky.app community organisation: one-million-bluesky-posts 🦋 📊 1M public posts from Bluesky's firehose API 🔍 Includes text, metadata, and language predictions 🔬 Perfect to experiment with using ML for Bluesky 🤗 huggingface.co/datasets/blu...

The more I think about it the more I feel like they left out all the fun so they could cram in more plot in this season, particularly act 3 And the plot STILL didn't fit the screentime

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Also, I feel like 2 seasons wasn't enough Each act of s2 could probably have been its own season, tbh The hex-tools were introduced in ep4 of s1 but were only used in episode 8 Each episode of season 2 has comparable plot devices that get introduced and used within one episode

Maddie SHOULD have been an incredibly interesting character but the show had no time for her Where the fuck do they get hex crystals from? That's still unanswered from s1 What were the black rose aiming for, really? What happened to Jayce and Viktor in the good timeline?

Also, I feel like 2 seasons wasn't enough Each act of s2 could probably have been its own season, tbh The hex-tools were introduced in ep4 of s1 but were only used in episode 8 Each episode of season 2 has comparable plot devices that get introduced and used within one episode

🌱Jayensee reposted

Replying to @jayensee.bsky.social

Totally forgot that the patch would drop today, so I guess this is the end of the series She did end up reaching 50% winrate in top, how much of that was because of the changes is unknown

Day 13 Diamond+ in top lane has the highest long-term predicted winrate and it's sitting at 49.4% as of right now That number will probably go up over time, but we'll see how much

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 11 The previous trends continue, but it doesn't look like she's gonna cross 50% winrate long-term in any of these rank brackets However, when I was looking at Zeri in the past these exponential models tended to underestimate long-term drift so idk

Totally forgot that the patch would drop today, so I guess this is the end of the series She did end up reaching 50% winrate in top, how much of that was because of the changes is unknown

Day 13 Diamond+ in top lane has the highest long-term predicted winrate and it's sitting at 49.4% as of right now That number will probably go up over time, but we'll see how much

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 11 The previous trends continue, but it doesn't look like she's gonna cross 50% winrate long-term in any of these rank brackets However, when I was looking at Zeri in the past these exponential models tended to underestimate long-term drift so idk

Day 13 Diamond+ in top lane has the highest long-term predicted winrate and it's sitting at 49.4% as of right now That number will probably go up over time, but we'll see how much

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 11 The previous trends continue, but it doesn't look like she's gonna cross 50% winrate long-term in any of these rank brackets However, when I was looking at Zeri in the past these exponential models tended to underestimate long-term drift so idk

We have now reached an important point in this series of threads: we finally got a graph that looks like an animal 🦆 This resemblance doesn't really mean anything, tho, and the curve is just trending toward what you'd expect from a standard high-rank-skewed champ

I'm writing my thoughts as a thread because it felt wrong to just spam replies Arcane has always moved past extreme violence quickly, Vi was mad at Jinx for a grand total of like 10s after she killed her friends and family 🧵1 / many

Alex “Nymaera” Hapgood@nymaera.bsky.social

Police brutality, gassing the undercity using the same gas that affected Viktor as a child using her mother’s creation that allows the undercity to breathe, instating martial law and furthering the conflict of the two cities on a huge scale, endangering children with her missed shots…

View full thread

It was perfectly in character for her to help Vi save Vander over letting Ambessa get a weapon of mass destruction, it wasn't rushed character progression, it wasn't even character progression 6 / 7

If anything it would have been extremely out of character for her to help Ambessa with that (I actually fell for that bait scene and was super mad at the writing for a few mins because of how little sense it made) 7 / 7

I'm writing my thoughts as a thread because it felt wrong to just spam replies Arcane has always moved past extreme violence quickly, Vi was mad at Jinx for a grand total of like 10s after she killed her friends and family 🧵1 / many

Alex “Nymaera” Hapgood@nymaera.bsky.social

Police brutality, gassing the undercity using the same gas that affected Viktor as a child using her mother’s creation that allows the undercity to breathe, instating martial law and furthering the conflict of the two cities on a huge scale, endangering children with her missed shots…

View full thread

The same way Silco always had altruistic motives even while using child labour and creating a drug epidemic, Caitlyn was still driven by her goal to bring peace to Piltover and Zaun even when she became the commander in chief 4 / many

Her "fascist arc" was actually just her "political power arc"; instead of going rogue she used all the powers available to her, but her goal was exactly the same as before: she wanted to get Jinx and restore peace to both cities, with as little collateral damage as possible 5 / many

I'm writing my thoughts as a thread because it felt wrong to just spam replies Arcane has always moved past extreme violence quickly, Vi was mad at Jinx for a grand total of like 10s after she killed her friends and family 🧵1 / many

Alex “Nymaera” Hapgood@nymaera.bsky.social

Police brutality, gassing the undercity using the same gas that affected Viktor as a child using her mother’s creation that allows the undercity to breathe, instating martial law and furthering the conflict of the two cities on a huge scale, endangering children with her missed shots…

I feel like Cait's "fascist arc" is getting criticism because it directly dove into a topic that is dominated by political narratives and conclusions Caitlyn stopped being a victim of the establishment and BECAME the establishment; 2 / many

so anti-establishment ppl assumed she dropped her idealist beliefs But she didn't, because Arcane isn't a morality lesson on how political power makes people evil, or how the establishment is evil 3 / many

I love that everyone's reaction to Act 2 of season 2 of Arcane is "those fucking assholes" followed by "no shot it actually ends like that" and then finding some copium explanation for it

🌱Jayensee reposted

Replying to @jayensee.bsky.social

Also, I'm just covering top and jungle because they're her most popular roles, but in mid she's already crossed 50% and with a good build (aka cyclosword) you could potentially be looking at a winrate as high as 54% So if you're a mid lane player, you might want to give her a shot

Day 11 The previous trends continue, but it doesn't look like she's gonna cross 50% winrate long-term in any of these rank brackets However, when I was looking at Zeri in the past these exponential models tended to underestimate long-term drift so idk

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 9 Top lane all ranks pickrate is starting to go down, but in diamond+ she's still going up Jungbessa is being ditched across the board 😞

Also, I'm just covering top and jungle because they're her most popular roles, but in mid she's already crossed 50% and with a good build (aka cyclosword) you could potentially be looking at a winrate as high as 54% So if you're a mid lane player, you might want to give her a shot

Day 11 The previous trends continue, but it doesn't look like she's gonna cross 50% winrate long-term in any of these rank brackets However, when I was looking at Zeri in the past these exponential models tended to underestimate long-term drift so idk

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 9 Top lane all ranks pickrate is starting to go down, but in diamond+ she's still going up Jungbessa is being ditched across the board 😞

View full thread

With her long-term winrate not looking like it will be within their acceptable brackets, they will probably be looking to buff her in 14.24 or 15.1 But depending on what they do for the new season everything could just become chaos Especially since we won't see what pros think of her for a while

Day 11 The previous trends continue, but it doesn't look like she's gonna cross 50% winrate long-term in any of these rank brackets However, when I was looking at Zeri in the past these exponential models tended to underestimate long-term drift so idk

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 9 Top lane all ranks pickrate is starting to go down, but in diamond+ she's still going up Jungbessa is being ditched across the board 😞

Cyclosword's popularity climb has slowed to a crawl and it's shaping up to be kind of a balance nightmare scenario for Riot When an alt build has a much higher winrate than the main build, they always have to consider the risk that it gets picked up and Ambessa's winrate suddenly spikes

Day 11 The previous trends continue, but it doesn't look like she's gonna cross 50% winrate long-term in any of these rank brackets However, when I was looking at Zeri in the past these exponential models tended to underestimate long-term drift so idk

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 9 Top lane all ranks pickrate is starting to go down, but in diamond+ she's still going up Jungbessa is being ditched across the board 😞

The rank curve keeps flattening, although I am surprised that it really seems like the middle ranks are the ones climbing most (remember not to trust the winrates at the highest ranks tho, they have very few games)

Day 11 The previous trends continue, but it doesn't look like she's gonna cross 50% winrate long-term in any of these rank brackets However, when I was looking at Zeri in the past these exponential models tended to underestimate long-term drift so idk

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 9 Top lane all ranks pickrate is starting to go down, but in diamond+ she's still going up Jungbessa is being ditched across the board 😞

Netflix's success happened because it was as convenient as pirating but legal Now I'm paying 12€ a month to be able to see full hd and they limit me to lower quality than what I could pirate on my 2DS when I was 13 years old

Day 9 Top lane all ranks pickrate is starting to go down, but in diamond+ she's still going up Jungbessa is being ditched across the board 😞

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 7 As expected, as players get experience, her winrate skews more in favor of higher ranks Her diamond+ winrate in top has finally surpassed the all ranks winrate, meanwhile in iron her winrates are already stabilizing Besides that, Diamond+ players are moving her to top lane, and iron to jgl

Cyclosword's popularity climb has slowed down a lot, at this rate it won't be the most popular 1st or 2nd item in either top or jungle by next patch I've been playing a lot of Ambessa and I think it's pretty cool if she gets to have a hidden op build for me to abuse 😎

Day 9 Top lane all ranks pickrate is starting to go down, but in diamond+ she's still going up Jungbessa is being ditched across the board 😞

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 7 As expected, as players get experience, her winrate skews more in favor of higher ranks Her diamond+ winrate in top has finally surpassed the all ranks winrate, meanwhile in iron her winrates are already stabilizing Besides that, Diamond+ players are moving her to top lane, and iron to jgl

Looking at the winrate v rank curve again we can already see the U shape start to flatten (I think it's gonna get closer to a straight line over time) The top ranks don't have many games, so their winrates are potentially very noisy

Day 9 Top lane all ranks pickrate is starting to go down, but in diamond+ she's still going up Jungbessa is being ditched across the board 😞

🌱Jayensee@jayensee.bsky.social

Day 7 As expected, as players get experience, her winrate skews more in favor of higher ranks Her diamond+ winrate in top has finally surpassed the all ranks winrate, meanwhile in iron her winrates are already stabilizing Besides that, Diamond+ players are moving her to top lane, and iron to jgl

But with a few data points, we can start looking at graphs! Here are her core stats over time, the upper lines are the winrates, and the lower ones the pickrates Really goes to show how important champion mastery is at high ranks Don't trust the predictions tho, these are very few data points

I'm testing rating systems for a video and some results have me really confused For example, TrueSkill is THE state of the art rating system, it's much more sophisticated than stuff like Elo and Glicko Yet for 3 out of the 4 chess datasets I'm using, Elo outperforms it

Another weird result is that he system most prone to overfitting is Glicko-2, despite not having anywhere close to the most tunable parameters It overfits way more than regular Glicko, which is extra weird because they're very similar and have the same number of parameters

I'm testing rating systems for a video and some results have me really confused For example, TrueSkill is THE state of the art rating system, it's much more sophisticated than stuff like Elo and Glicko Yet for 3 out of the 4 chess datasets I'm using, Elo outperforms it

The 3 datasets where Elo does better are all from Lichess, whereas the one where TrueSkill does better is the dataset used in the Deloitte-FIDE challenge So you might think it's Lichess' skill-based matchmaking that's messing with the results, but in other matchmade games TrueSkill does WAY better