Jinkies

Good morning. It's one week to election day, six days left of early voting across MI. Turnout has exploded. 77k IP votes yesterday, roughly 110k ballots returned by my rough math. That should bring us to a total of ~190k new votes per day this week. Some analysis below:

What's the tl;dr? Michigan turnout will probably be slightly above 2022, driven largely by mail's consistency and some IPEV sprinkled in there. If Nevada has a blue wall in its mail vote, Michigan has a blue fortress.

Good morning. It's one week to election day, six days left of early voting across MI. Turnout has exploded. 77k IP votes yesterday, roughly 110k ballots returned by my rough math. That should bring us to a total of ~190k new votes per day this week. Some analysis below:

So, here's my best guess, with the caveat that it could be any number of things, including republicans returning to EDay after '24 (though that doesn't seem to be happening in states like NV or NJ): Republicans are the ones not turning out for early voting, and the turnout gap reflects D vs R

Good morning. It's one week to election day, six days left of early voting across MI. Turnout has exploded. 77k IP votes yesterday, roughly 110k ballots returned by my rough math. That should bring us to a total of ~190k new votes per day this week. Some analysis below:

If this is anything like early voting in New Jersey, yesterday will be the reddest day of the nine. That seems to track, given the turnout gap growing in Ottawa County vs Kent and Muskegon yesterday. Nevertheless, the bluest county in north MI, Leelanau, smashed right past 50 to 51.7% of 2024 EV.

Alright, good morning all. With the valid crashouts from last night out of the way, more Michigan early vote mapping. We're steadily climbing statewide. About 80,000 votes cast again yesterday but that includes mail ballot dropboxes, so IPEV was a touch under 60,000.

You can start to see more stratification up north. Without commenting too much on patterns that may be happenstance, I notice that the I-75 and US-31 corridors are where turnout is highest, i.e., more populated areas. Dems should probably be happy about that.

Alright, good morning all. With the valid crashouts from last night out of the way, more Michigan early vote mapping. We're steadily climbing statewide. About 80,000 votes cast again yesterday but that includes mail ballot dropboxes, so IPEV was a touch under 60,000.

I expect today will bring the first true statewide explosion of early votes. We have until this point been receiving about 60,000 total votes per weekday. I expect that to double or triple. Detroit set a day two EV record again yesterday, more than doubling its same day 2024 turnout.

A message to cis liberals, as a quote from my favorite Shakespeare play: You common cry of curs! whose breath I hate As reek o' the rotten fens, whose loves I prize As the dead carcasses of unburied men That do corrupt my air, I banish you;

And here remain with your uncertainty! Let every feeble rumour shake your hearts! Your enemies, with nodding of their plumes, Fan you into despair! Have the power still To banish your defenders; till at length Your ignorance, which finds not till it feels,

8 days left of statewide in-person early voting in Michigan, and this is what early vote turnout looks like. Yesterday had just shy of 80,000 people turn out in-person. Extrapolating that gives us ~720k total statewide for final count. That give us 59% of 2024, imo we're going to see it go higher.

Furthermore, Detroit smashed the early in-person record. I saw a post yesterday that said Detroiters simply can't be counted on to vote early in person as they shift from mail voting. That appears to be wrong on two counts: - Detroit mail is up relative to 2022 - Detroit IPEV up compared to *2024*

8 days left of statewide in-person early voting in Michigan, and this is what early vote turnout looks like. Yesterday had just shy of 80,000 people turn out in-person. Extrapolating that gives us ~720k total statewide for final count. That give us 59% of 2024, imo we're going to see it go higher.

Yesterday, a Michigander cast the millionth ballot (statistically speaking, probably for Jocelyn Benson and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed since they're 99% mail). Today, all counties open early in-person voting and continue until the sunday before election day. Here's where turnout stands relative to 2024 EV

Will Lawrence and Dr. El-Sayed are going to be fine. This mail turnout looks like 2022, which was before EIP. That means dems, given trends in other states, will probably show up *more* than in 2022 starting this weekend. Furthermore, MI-01 looks competitive. @hydevoltyge.bsky.social pinging jic

Yesterday, a Michigander cast the millionth ballot (statistically speaking, probably for Jocelyn Benson and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed since they're 99% mail). Today, all counties open early in-person voting and continue until the sunday before election day. Here's where turnout stands relative to 2024 EV

Lansing area, Kalamazoo area, and tri-cities area also up. Flint is somewhat down, but it's actually caught up in mail a lot since last week! I expect it to get to where Oakland/Wayne are. Wayne outside Detroit has lower turnout but it's not a huge deal. Looks more similar to Macomb/Oakland.

Yesterday, a Michigander cast the millionth ballot (statistically speaking, probably for Jocelyn Benson and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed since they're 99% mail). Today, all counties open early in-person voting and continue until the sunday before election day. Here's where turnout stands relative to 2024 EV