Joeri Rogelj

The 2026 UNEP Emissions Gap Report is out: The Point of Return. 🌍🌡️🔥 It's sobering but actionable. Decades of inadequate climate action have closed off opportunities to limit warming, but ambitious action today can still prevent much greater harm. A thread of some of the highlights 🧵

Finally, the report also provides new benchmarks, for renewables or the phase out of fossil fuels, aligned with the lowest 1.5°C overshoot scenario. These can be used as guides to understand which actions and targets can be aligned with minimizing the magnitude and duration of 1.5°C overshoot.

The 2026 UNEP Emissions Gap Report is out: The Point of Return. 🌍🌡️🔥 It's sobering but actionable. Decades of inadequate climate action have closed off opportunities to limit warming, but ambitious action today can still prevent much greater harm. A thread of some of the highlights 🧵

A smaller gap but a worse future. Current policies, result in warming being kept below 2.8°C by 2100. The most optimistic case, where all NDCs and net-zero targets are achieved keeps warming to 2.1°C. This is a worsening from last year's report, mainly because of the policy roll-backs in the US.

The 2026 UNEP Emissions Gap Report is out: The Point of Return. 🌍🌡️🔥 It's sobering but actionable. Decades of inadequate climate action have closed off opportunities to limit warming, but ambitious action today can still prevent much greater harm. A thread of some of the highlights 🧵

The guardrails applied to the lowest 1.5°C overshoot scenario ensure near-term deployment of hydro, nuclear, wind, solar PV and geological CO₂ storage reflect current trends and project pipelines. Sustainability guardrails cover CO₂ storage, bioenergy demand, biodiversity and food security.

The 2026 UNEP Emissions Gap Report is out: The Point of Return. 🌍🌡️🔥 It's sobering but actionable. Decades of inadequate climate action have closed off opportunities to limit warming, but ambitious action today can still prevent much greater harm. A thread of some of the highlights 🧵

To answer this, the report introduces a new "lowest 1.5°C overshoot scenario". It identifies pathways that minimise the magnitude and duration of overshoot while remaining within defined feasibility and sustainability guardrails.

The 2026 UNEP Emissions Gap Report is out: The Point of Return. 🌍🌡️🔥 It's sobering but actionable. Decades of inadequate climate action have closed off opportunities to limit warming, but ambitious action today can still prevent much greater harm. A thread of some of the highlights 🧵

Meanwhile, many countries still need stronger policies to achieve their 2030 and 2035 climate pledges called Nationally Determined Contribution or NDCs. Those on track typically put targets unambitious targets that are much weaker than where current trends would put emissions.

The 2026 UNEP Emissions Gap Report is out: The Point of Return. 🌍🌡️🔥 It's sobering but actionable. Decades of inadequate climate action have closed off opportunities to limit warming, but ambitious action today can still prevent much greater harm. A thread of some of the highlights 🧵

New UN Report @unep.org World set to cross 1.5°C global warming, but options to limit, adapt to and return from higher temperatures exist. The report covers implications of temperature overshoot of 1.5°C, for our responses, adapt and manage this new normal. Some key messages /1

Mitigation strategies must be robust to climate impacts, while adaptation planning must consider how much warming could still occur. Greater confidence in mitigation enables more targeted adaptation. Conversely, insufficient mitigation will push adaptation to its limits. /12

New UN Report @unep.org World set to cross 1.5°C global warming, but options to limit, adapt to and return from higher temperatures exist. The report covers implications of temperature overshoot of 1.5°C, for our responses, adapt and manage this new normal. Some key messages /1

Third, a long-term resilience response phase combining warming reversal with continued adaptation. This includes sustained net-negative CO₂ emissions to reduce climate hazards, with continued efforts to close any remaining adaptation gaps and enhance sustainability and societal resilience. /10

New UN Report @unep.org World set to cross 1.5°C global warming, but options to limit, adapt to and return from higher temperatures exist. The report covers implications of temperature overshoot of 1.5°C, for our responses, adapt and manage this new normal. Some key messages /1

Second, a coping and containment response, starting immediately. Local and regional decisionmakers need to plan for a world above 1.5°C where warming needs to be halted while communities and societies are protected. /8

New UN Report @unep.org World set to cross 1.5°C global warming, but options to limit, adapt to and return from higher temperatures exist. The report covers implications of temperature overshoot of 1.5°C, for our responses, adapt and manage this new normal. Some key messages /1

The response to the realisation that global warming will overshoot 1.5°C comes in three phases in which adaptation and mitigation actions are closely interconnected. /6

New UN Report @unep.org World set to cross 1.5°C global warming, but options to limit, adapt to and return from higher temperatures exist. The report covers implications of temperature overshoot of 1.5°C, for our responses, adapt and manage this new normal. Some key messages /1

Mitigation and adaptation must move together. In an overshoot world, mitigation and adaptation are two parts of the same response: mitigation determines how much climate change we ultimately face, while adaptation determines how well we cope with the change we can no longer avoid. /4

New UN Report @unep.org World set to cross 1.5°C global warming, but options to limit, adapt to and return from higher temperatures exist. The report covers implications of temperature overshoot of 1.5°C, for our responses, adapt and manage this new normal. Some key messages /1

We have lost the chance to avoid 1.5°C. But we haven’t lost the chance to limit how far we overshoot it, how long that overshoot lasts, and how much harm it causes. /2

POSTDOC OPPORTUNITY 🌍 Are you an early-career researcher interested in working at the interface of climate science, law, and policy? A new opportunity at @granthamicl.bsky.social at @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social 👇

We strongly encourage applications from women and candidates from diverse backgrounds And from those whose perspectives will strengthen the diversity of our academic community.

POSTDOC OPPORTUNITY 🌍 Are you an early-career researcher interested in working at the interface of climate science, law, and policy? A new opportunity at @granthamicl.bsky.social at @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social 👇

We are looking for candidates with backgrounds in: climate science, environmental science, energy systems, law, policy, or related fields (we cast the net very wide!) …and a strong interest in getting into the weeds of interdisciplinary research.

POSTDOC OPPORTUNITY 🌍 Are you an early-career researcher interested in working at the interface of climate science, law, and policy? A new opportunity at @granthamicl.bsky.social at @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social 👇

The position focuses on how scientific evidence can inform and strengthen legal frameworks for climate mitigation ambition. For example, looking at concepts such as “highest possible ambition” and best-effort obligations.

POSTDOC OPPORTUNITY 🌍 Are you an early-career researcher interested in working at the interface of climate science, law, and policy? A new opportunity at @granthamicl.bsky.social at @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social 👇