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@jonleonard.bsky.social

105 followers138 following396 posts

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Top 24 WRs by targets, compared to catch rates. Potential regression coming, either the catches or the targets. High volume + catch: JSN ~74% catch, 78 targets 👍 volume, 👎 catch: Golden 51% Metcalf 55% Wilson (ARI) 56% 👎 volume, 👍 catch: Burden and Flowers need more targets

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

JSN is quietly lapping the field. Who else stands out? If only Tate had an actual QB… * Note that this is before the last game of week 7.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Punt and kick return heatmap. Who’s giving up most/least… Most kickoff returns allowed/game: BUF (6.17) Most punt returns allowed/game: WAS (4.00) Most punt return yards/game: PHI (29) Most total returns allowed/game: MIN (8.80) Fewest total return yards/game: TEN (57)

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

It doesn't just feel like we've been seeing more turnover and injury among starting QBs. Over the last decade, there have been progressively more, even accounting for the final week game that tends to have backups. '21 added a game to the regular season and bumped the total starters in to the 60s.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

The top reasons for missing time still mostly follow the song. Head, shoulder, knees and [elbows]. For teams, it's pretty scattered, although Deshaun Watson and Jimmy G account for 30 missed games on their own. Daniels has had multiple absences in just a couple years, a definite concern as well.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Top (best elevators): GB 78%, CAR 76%, MIN 76%, NE 68%, HOU 64% Middle (more of an escalator): LV 63%, IND 59%, NYJ 59%, CHI 58%, WAS 56%, KC 49% Bottom (basically stairs): SF 48%, ARI 45%, CLE 43%, NO 39%

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Every QB to throw a pass so far 6 weeks, 93 gm, 53 QBs Green across most columns: Purdy, Goff, Mahomes, Lamar, Burrow, Caleb Red-heavy rows (fade): Jalon Daniels, Herbert, Jones, Willis, Baker Dual-threat: Allen (57 yd, 6 rush TD) and Herbert (42 yd) lead while Lamar's 6.67 YPC is the best rate.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Something is up with Stafford and the Rams His aDot peaked in week 2, but has been steadily declining since. At this rate, he’ll be Bo Nix by Halloween

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

2025 vs 2026 so far, aDot is shifting for players as they take on new roles. Targeted Deeper: Malik Washington +6.88 (9.2→16.1, deep 25%→54%) Doubs +4.09 Adams +4.07 (12.7→16.7, 38t, deep 54%→68%) Metcalf +3.69 Bowers +3.42 (7.7→11.1, deep 26%→53%) Downs +3.19 Jefferson +3.03 Otton +3.02

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Shorter aDot in 2026 compared with 2025: Bourne −5.10 (11.3→6.2, deep 48%→14%) Watson −4.74 (17.8→13.0, deep 64%→41%) Boutte −4.26 Wan'Dale Robinson −4.00 (deep 38%→15%) Brian Thomas Jr −2.64 Flowers −2.15 Juwan Johnson −1.99 McBride −1.73 (146→52t, deep 29%→12%) Sutton −1.66 Loveland −1.65

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Looking at ‘21-25, weeks 1-5 predictiveness by stat for the full-season. Early success rate, YPA, and sack rate are the most reliable, while INT is too much noise. For 2026, 29 QBs meet a 100+ attempt threshold. Creating some bands based on the metrics, we can start to see who to trust/watch/fade.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Fade the bottom band (net -3): Jones (-4): 5.52 YPA, 3 TD / 4 INT Winston (-4): 5.59 YPA, 52.8% comp, 7.6% sack Rodgers (-3): 6.20 YPA, 55.3% comp Nix (-3) and Ward (-3): both ~5.5 YPA, ~40% SR, low TD output.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Watch-list (mixed profile): Herbert is the biggest concern with net +2 on volume, but 53.1% comp + 10.6% sack (both bottom-quartile) and 7 INT on 160 att. Baker (11.9% sack, worst in cohort, 34.9% SR) Hurts (53.3% comp, 5.59 YPA) Shough (219 att, most in cohort, 5.93 YPA) Cousins (12 TD, 4 INT)

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Looking at ‘21-25, weeks 1-5 predictiveness by stat for the full-season. Early success rate, YPA, and sack rate are the most reliable, while INT is too much noise. For 2026, 29 QBs meet a 100+ attempt threshold. Creating some bands based on the metrics, we can start to see who to trust/watch/fade.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Trust the top band (net ≥ +3): Lamar (+5): 9.39 YPA, 56.3% SR, 66% comp, 1 INT on 103 att Lawrence (+5): 7.62 YPA, 10 TD / 3 INT, 50% SR. Purdy (+3): 8.19 YPA, 13 TD, 2.1% sack (lowest in cohort) Allen (+3): 7.99 YPA, plus 5 rush TD Maye (+3): 7.53 YPA, 8 TD, but 7 INT (bottom-quartile INT rate)

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Momentum shift for QBs in week 5 Love and Maye took a big leap while Penix, Purdy, Watson, Shough regressed quite a bit.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

2026 vs 2025 Yards Per Target WR/TE: ahead of own pace Evans +5.7 (5.94 → 11.60 YPT, 35t) 25.4% target share London +5.4 (8.13 → 13.56, 36t) Kelce +3.4 (7.81 → 11.18, 22t) Adams +3.3 (6.92 → 10.26, 38t) down from +6.7 at wks 1-3 Jefferson and Flowers +2.9 Olave +2.5 (54t, highest volume on list)

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

WR/TE Behind Their 2025 Pace Diggs -4.5 (9.93 → 5.48) Sutton -4.0 (8.14 → 4.16) Loveland -3.9 Kraft -3.8 Burden -3.3

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

RB Ahead Of Their 2025 Pace Irving +1.87 (3.40 → 5.27 YPC, 77c) Walker +1.53 (4.65 → 6.17, 87c, 4 TD) Warren +1.32 (4.54 → 5.86, 70c) Hubbard +1.15 Barkley +1.00 Bijan +0.55 on 102 carries Behind Achane -1.94 (5.67 → 3.74) RIP Montgomery -1.85 (4.50 → 2.65) Dobbins -1.47 Hall -1.19 Henderson -1.18

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Disregard that Zac can’t count all the way to 10. It’s very cool to have made this short list.

Zac Reed@tacitassassin13.bsky.social

=COUNTIF(A1:A10, “FAVORITE NUMBERS NERD”) @pahowdy.bsky.social @jonleonard.bsky.social @cplant.bsky.social @fftommyb.bsky.social

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Your Leading 2026 Punt/Kick Returners so far... Myles Price and KaVontae Turpin are lapping the field. Price has nearly 100yds more than Turpin, who has nearly 100yds more than Dike at number 3. In only 5 games! The only RB that made the top 10 is Seth McGowan, with just over 80 yards per game.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

So about those Eagles... '23-25 (starting when Jurgens became a starter, first RG, then C), there have been 292 plays where neither he nor Lane Johnson have been on the field. Passing got a little worse, but the rushing game didn't fair as well. Targets also shifted slightly away from the WR.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Baseline ‘21–25, same wk1-4 window each year): correlated early against full 2026: 26 QBs w/ 100+ pass attempts Wk1-4 was strong for efficiency Early -> full r Sack rate: 0.85 Rush YPC: 0.84 YPA: 0.78 Success rate: 0.78 Rush yards: 0.76 Comp %: 0.69 TD rate: 0.69 INT rate: 0.56 Pass att: 0.22

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Standouts (ahead of pace, net ≥ +4) Purdy: clear leader at +7. 69.9% comp, 8.91 YPA, 60.2% success, 9.7% TD rate, and 0 sacks Goff: +6, 64.5% comp, 9 TD / 0 INT, improved +2 in wk4 Lamar: +6, 8.77 YPA, 66% comp, plus 40 rush yds Mahomes and Dak: +5, (66.9% comp, 3.8% sack), both solid and steady

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Behind pace (net ≤ −4) Jones: −5, the week's biggest fall: -1 → −5 as wk4 landed. 4.99 YPA, 40% success, 4 INTs. Baker: −5, 34.9% success, 11.9% sack rate (worst in the set). Herbert: -4, 54.2% comp, 4.6% INT, 9.2% sack. Then Hurts, Rodgers, Willis at −3.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

How predictive is the early window? 2021-25, wk1-4 → full season - WR (n=369): YPT r=0.65, catch rate r=0.67, success r=0.62, TD r=0.57 - TE (n=208): YPT r=0.60, catch rate r=0.63, success r=0.62, TD r=0.51 - RB (n=256): YPC r=0.66, success r=0.69, TD r=0.60 CR/SR and YPT/YPC best signal. 1/3

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Trust (high volume + top band): WR: JSN (42t, 11.5 YPT, 6 TD, 4 top-Q) Flowers (22t, 16.0 YPT, 82% CR) London (25t, 14.8) Evans (24t, 12.2, 3 TD) Coleman (17t, 13.4) 👀 RB: Walker (87c, 6.17 YPC, 4 top-Q) Cook (70c, 6.01) Bijan (85c, 5.81, 4 top-Q) Kyren (54c, 5.44) Chuba (62c, 4.94, 3 top-Q) 2/3

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

TEs are hard to trust, but… Kincaid 14.2 YPT on 19 targets, 3 top-quartile metrics Kittle (22t, 11.1 YPT, 4 TD / 18% TD rate) Kelce (22t, 11.2, 3 top-Q) McBride (46t, 5.26) and Likely (35t, 5.43) are the most-targeted TEs but sit in the bottom quartile on YPT 3/3

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

In Ekeler’s first game back, he won on efficiency, but JCM got the volume. Small sample size, but something to keep an eye on.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

Points given up to opposing RBs split by team and whether they came in the air or on the ground. Knowing the difference in where they come from can be important. Per game numbers using 2026 games played so far

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

2026 vs 2025 Players vs their yards per target/carry averages from last year As usual, green is good, red shows underperforming in comparison.

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@jonleonard.bsky.social

3 weeks in, the season starts to take shape. Some metrics are more predictive than others. Using 2021-2025, I looked at the weeks 1-3 correlation with full season. Welcome back to the top right of the chart, Mahomes.