Joseph Cotterill

Joseph Cotterill

@jsphctrl.ft.com

Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times; sovereign debt thinkfluencer; I like comics

8.8K followers238 following1.4K posts

The crumbling mansions of the Guptas are on sale again. Combined asking price R22mn (£1mn) but with offers starting at R15mn (£675k) you can get 18 bedrooms & a piece of South African history for the price of a London flat. www.property24.com/for-sale/sax... www.property24.com/for-sale/sax...

property24.com7 Bedroom House for sale in Saxonwold - Johannesburg - Property24OFFERS FROM R 7M, ASKING R 10M - Set on an expansive 4,032m² stand, this property offers...

This will be out of date quickly today (the Brazilian real has opened down a lot against the dollar), but in dollar terms, Brazil's stock market was up 38% so far this year (or 27% local currency). Versus 41% (29%) for Korea, which had all the emerging-market attention as the hot AI market.

Good day for noting that big currency sell-offs in Brazil (like today) also tend to make global coffee and sugar cheaper. Big falls in the real give farmers more incentives to earn dollars from exports and increasing global supply. Arabica coffee futures are off over 3% today.

If you’re a politician anywhere outside the US, at this point the big lobbying move with Trumpworld should be to get him to endorse your opponent.

The Disappearers. Had to put it down several times as it brought back, well, memories, but didn’t want it to end. Like an Icelandic saga in how it explores what violence leaves in people. Crazily ambitious. Absolutely book of the year. If Marlon James doesn’t get the Booker I’ll be very surprised.

I would guess a lot of people will struggle to keep going with it given the form and themes, but if you do pick up The Disappearers - do keep going. Even Marlon James writing about, say, music is worth the price of admission (it’s the best intertextual novel I’ve read in a long, long time).

BofA: Bond yields in Asian emerging markets are in nominal terms trading the most below US Treasuries in years. “This is not purely a consequence of EM Asia's significantly lower policy rates skewed by China's heavy GDP weighting...”

In theory this should be hitting currencies across EM Asia as investors go for higher US yields, but that isn't the case in many places. Which is possibly a reflection of foreign investors wanting US stocks and not so many US bonds, or Asian AI chipmakers bringing more of their (vast) profits home.

Emerging-market domestic bonds are faring a lot better than many expected given the recent moves in US yields, and it is weirding people out a bit. Is it better EM fundamentals or is it reflecting how other risk assets like stocks haven't panicked yet? Both? www.ft.com/content/0f69...

ft.comEmerging markets outperform developed markets as bond rout deepensFiscal discipline, institutional strength and a willingness to fight inflation have shielded developing countries so far

The Mexican peso, a classic EM proxy and/or carry trade for US investors in particular, is still down 6% against the dollar over the past month though. It probably doesn't help that in Mexico, rates are only about 2.5 percentage points over US rates at this point.

Since bondholders mostly expect Senegal to pay off its own TRS before its looming restructuring, there is a good reason why investors might want pieces of them. There's a decent chance they'll be established as super-senior as a norm.

UK Government Investments Ltd, UK Export Finance, and the Department for Business and Trade (et al) are bringing out the big guns though. www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07921... www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/07038... www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/06014...

find-tender.service.gov.ukUKGI Financial Times 2026-27 - Find a Tender
Press Gazette@pressgazette.co.uk

The Home Office is planning to spend £17,700 on 400 Economist subscriptions for the next year, saying the publication "will substantially improve" the advice officials can give to ministers www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/09184...

If you've ever followed a big investment in a mine or LNG project in a frontier economy, it's funny how AI investment's impact on the US economy mimics the broad strokes a bit. Imports go up. Inflation goes up. Then people start muttering darkly of ‘social license to operate’ and ‘force majeure’...

You can now pick up the Meta/Blue Owl Project Beignet bonds (secured, rated A+) at a 7.3% yield, or about the same as Mexico’s (unsecured, BBB-rated) US dollar bonds at a similar maturity.

On the other hand, on the junkier/little to no bond market access side of EM dollar debt... Argentina, Ukraine, Ecuador, and Venezuela's bonds have sold off a fair bit this month.

“Sara Chouraqui, Elizabeth Collery and Victoria Jacobson all moved from the UK’s Serious Fraud Office to Betancourt’s North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) in March.” At the time, their counterparts in Zurich were still requesting Betancourt’s [UK] extradition…” www.ft.com/content/f2f3...

ft.comTop UK graft prosecutors joined Trump’s Venezuela oil baron during Swiss probeAlejandro Betancourt was previously wanted by authorities in Switzerland as part of a money-laundering investigation

It would bring an apparently revolutionary upgrade in Home Office capacity to connect to other parts of government, such as HMRC. Eg at present they don't consider UK job offers or salaries for applicants for spousal visas (only the 'sponsor').

Alex Hern@hern.bsky.social

what would the second order impacts be of an immigration policy that says "if your employer gives you a PAYE salary of more than £100,000, you automatically get a work visa"

“The success of the Trump administration’s blockbuster Venezuela oil deal is riding on fields that are aging, degraded or expensive to access... [US] would be taking on enormous environmental liabilities at properties previously operated by China Concord Petroleum“: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.comTrump's Venezuela Oil Deal Hinges on Decrepit and Distant FieldsThe US-backed venture will struggle to reach its production goal, experts say.

This but it is actually also happening to emerging markets balance of payments crises when you combine demographics with the new EM orthodoxy. Hundreds of millions of people in India must be younger at this point than the Taper Tantrum (2013) let alone '08-09, etc.

Katie Martin@katie0martin.ft.com

A thing bugging me: When I went to uni, the UK's IMF bailout was a dim and distant thing that happened around the time we were born. Never came up in conversation. Kids starting uni now are the cohort born in 2008 who presumably see the GFC the same way. Ancient history, ok boomer etc

'More than' 10% is the big rhetorical innovation here, because this could be stretched to anything from 11% to 100%, without ever quite committing. In the meantime, it all sounds so much cooler than ~1% a year, which just makes people compare to chances of nuclear war and boring stuff like that.

I remember the moment in late 2022 when Ramaphosa came close to resigning over Phala Phala. One of his closest advisers told me then he would come back stronger, wouldn't take the reform agenda for granted, etc. Outside Operation Vulindlela (and even then...), it just never really happened.

Jordan@jordanpfot.bsky.social

This scandal was the turning point for Ramaphosa. Ever since then it’s felt like he’s lost interest in governing. www.ft.com/content/0df6...

Bondholders also already noticed that Chevron, oil major and a veteran operator in Venezuela by now, is so far aiming to add only 300,000 bpd in five years. Doubling its output but not really touching the sides of getting Venezuela’s output from 1mn to 2-3mn bps relatively quickly.

Not the main thing here, but a black velvet is also known as a way to ruin two perfectly good drinks. A perfect choice then for someone completely flailing at their due diligence.

Adam Bienkov@adambienkov.bsky.social

Nigel Farage filmed celebrating illegal foreign donations Undercover footage reveals plot to break the law by funnelling offshore funds through a UK donor. Donations funded a series of widely reported polls boosting Reform ahead of the local elections channel4news.substack.com/p/exclusive-...

If the US gets a stake in, or long lease on, Venezuelan oil fields, it's a big deal for the debt restructuring. In theory it hits bond recoveries. But it also signals a strong US incentive to raise production, so if creditors get oil warrants... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.comVenezuela Weighs OPEC Exit as US Discusses Oil Fields StakeVenezuela is considering whether it should quit OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially delivering a fresh blow to the oil cartel it helped create more than six decades ago.
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The US will own (seemingly it’s free carry) over half of a joint venture with an “experienced private operator in Venezuela”: Betancourt’s NABEP? This JV will have a 100-year lease on fields with supposedly this many barrels (NB not necessarily economically recoverable!): www.ft.com/content/2f88...

ft.comTrump says US to take control of 65bn barrels of Venezuelan oilThe president says the countries’ joint venture will lower petrol prices for Americans

Delcy Rodríguez says the US deal will generate “more than $209bn” in taxes for Venezuela, which assumes the 65bn is recoverable but also implies a relatively low government ‘take’ versus Venezuela’s norm…

If the US gets a stake in, or long lease on, Venezuelan oil fields, it's a big deal for the debt restructuring. In theory it hits bond recoveries. But it also signals a strong US incentive to raise production, so if creditors get oil warrants... www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.comVenezuela Weighs OPEC Exit as US Discusses Oil Fields StakeVenezuela is considering whether it should quit OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially delivering a fresh blow to the oil cartel it helped create more than six decades ago.

Two very very interesting things about this. One is Alejandro Betancourt popping up again. The other is the US Office of Strategic Capital as the potential investor - this is a Pentagon body that backs scandium mines, drones, etc. Venezuelan oil quite a departure! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.comPentagon in Talks With Venezuelan Mogul for Massive Oil DealThe US government is pursuing a major stake in Venezuelan oil reserves via a potential partnership between the Department of Defense and Alejandro Betancourt, a controversial energy investor who has b...

The US experiment in Venezuela is basically resurrecting an oligarch it used to shun - WaPo reports that US officials lobbied to help Alejandro Betancourt, a fixer going back to the Chavez era, with a Swiss arrest warrant, as he helps the US with oil deals. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

washingtonpost.comU.S. intervened in criminal probe of oilman helping Trump in VenezuelaSwiss prosecutors asked the U.S. Justice Department to arrest Alejandro Betancourt. Instead, he was given a multi-entry visa and allowed to travel to the United States.

It's also not clear what the US is getting in terms of revived US investment in Venezuelan oil - the majors don't seem that keen so far. Deals that have been announced are largely wildcatters or firms with Venezuela experience (like, er, Betancourt's own NABEP)