Kirill So

Kirill So

@kirso.bsky.social

⭐ AI PM 🤖 www.MakeKeepsake.com | www.AiWorkIndex.com 💭 http://kirillso.com 💸 Tiny cheques @Replit @CalmFund 🌏 Global citizen

68 followers132 following115 posts

A fun watch about second-brain cringe lords claiming they woke up to Claude linking their thoughts and writing 6-8k word class articles 🙃 As a person who sadly wasted hours on this. Both painful and fun...

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- Many years later, move to a different country cause someone took a chance on you that took 5 minutes. Literaly 5 minutes. - Meet your spouse in that country - Thank that someone every year. So I'll leave with a wonderful quote from a great song: "Go easy kid, it's only rock and roll!"

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The other side of the tunnel is completely without "I DID" - Parents immigrating - Falling behind in academia due to disruption, language barrier, etc. - Starting work early due to financial scarcity - Doing odd gigs

- Accidentally meeting the right people during these gigs that open doors to a new industry. - Get a fancy gig cause you are the only specialist in that niche in a small pool of candidates

I journaled about this in Cambodia 2 years ago to realize life can be an absolute whirlwind of wild coincidences and many times outside of our control, no matter what Silicon Valley agency and taste freaks tell you. Many are interpreting this as: > I did input > It produced output

Food for thought... Startup methodologies over the last 25 years have produced zero measurable improvement in startup survival rates. Lean Startup Customer Development Business Model Canvas Design Thinking *BLS data flat curves since 1995. Crunchbase shows declining seed-to-Series-A conversion.

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Food for thought... Startup methodologies over the last 25 years have produced zero measurable improvement in startup survival rates. Lean Startup Customer Development Business Model Canvas Design Thinking *BLS data flat curves since 1995. Crunchbase shows declining seed-to-Series-A conversion.

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Of course, the easy and lame answer here is to create more moats, distribution, proprietary data flywheels, complex integrations, regulatory advantages, yadda yadda yadda. Stuff you've seen on LinkedIn 500x. And it's not wrong, but it's too obvious. Too generic.

So it gets me pondering about illegibility, timing, luck, and personal advantages. Particularly in a world where everyone is doing the same thing, whether it's writing slop on LinkedIn, building MVPs on lovable, or competing for jobs and customers.

Food for thought... Startup methodologies over the last 25 years have produced zero measurable improvement in startup survival rates. Lean Startup Customer Development Business Model Canvas Design Thinking *BLS data flat curves since 1995. Crunchbase shows declining seed-to-Series-A conversion.

1️⃣ Nobody runs rigorous experiments. Pundits sold books, accelerators collected returns, and academics faced bad incentives. 2️⃣ The methods formalized the obvious. Founders already talked to customers before anyone branded it. 3️⃣ The methods are self-defeating. That's the most interesting part.

When someone discovers a new approach, they get a temporary edge. Then it gets codified. Everyone uses it. Entities enforce it. Universities teach it. Now everyone is doing the same thing. The cohort reverts to the mean. If you do what everyone else does, you get what everyone else gets.

Kirill So reposted

The secret to doubling productivity isn’t unrealistic daily improvement goals, captured in trite tweets like “get 1% better every day!” It’s about eliminating the slowest tasks. Here’s the math behind that, and how to do it:

longform.asmartbear.comDouble your productivity without more work or stressPeople love to say that getting “1% better per day” makes you 37x better after a year, but this obviously makes no sense. But 2x better is possible.
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I am curious how far I can push it with pSEO, AEO & GEO whilst trying to create a deterministic way to score for global professions, not only in Singapore.

If you're building something data-heavy: - Static pre-render. Zero headaches (no, the emphasis is not LLM writing) - Cloudflare Pages free tier is genuinely insane for what you get - Don't go on Reddit sharing your work :) aiworkindex.com

aiworkindex.comAI Work Index — How Will AI Affect Your Job in Singapore?Explore structural AI pressure on Singapore jobs. 562 occupations scored using official data and published research, with synthetic modern roles and labour-market context.
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Last week's numbers: 3.6K unique visitors 90K requests 2 GB served Cloudflare cached 40% of it without me configuring anything. The whole thing costs me literally nothing to run.

Posted on r/Singapore Got quite a bit of hate, and eventually removed for "Self-promotion". It's free. It's open source. There are no ads. There's no newsletter signup. ???

Last week, I published the AI Work Index. It takes 562 official occupation codes, runs them through an exposure model (academic papers, not vibes), and spits out a displacement risk score. SvelteKit, fully static, deployed on Cloudflare Pages free tier. No backend. No database.

Kirill So reposted

Everyone else is screwed up. Most people screw up the same things you screw up. You could read that as an excuse to be screwed up. Or you could read that as evidence that you can become un-screwed up. Don’t let commiseration lead to complacency, but to improvement.

Some time ago, I bumped into an article called: "Risk, luck, and imitation. Did Elon Musk get lucky?" by Luca Dellana The main point goes something like this:

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In 10 parallel universes, how many times does this strategy work? Are you okay with the full range of outcomes, not just the best one? As Marc puts it: "Success that costs you everything is too expensive."

Some time ago, I bumped into an article called: "Risk, luck, and imitation. Did Elon Musk get lucky?" by Luca Dellana The main point goes something like this:

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This doesn't mean avoid all risk. It means acknowledging the trade-off. Competing for first place often uses strategies that reduce your average outcome.

If you want to be the best, narrow the scope. Best singer in your town vs best artist in your country. Smaller pools = skill matters more than luck = reproducible strategy. A good thing to ponder about:

Some time ago, I bumped into an article called: "Risk, luck, and imitation. Did Elon Musk get lucky?" by Luca Dellana The main point goes something like this:

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Extreme outcomes require extreme variance. To compete for #1, you take risks that increase your best outcome but reduce your average outcome. I love this thought experiment based on the multiverse. 500 entrepreneurs take extreme risks. 500 take moderate risks.

Across 10 parallel universes, the winner is always from the risk-taking group. But it's a different person each time. The moderate risk-takers? They do well in almost every universe.

Some time ago, I bumped into an article called: "Risk, luck, and imitation. Did Elon Musk get lucky?" by Luca Dellana The main point goes something like this:

Extreme risk strategies optimize for the best outcome in one universe. But they tank your average outcome across all possible universes. Investors optimise for the portfolio, whilst you are one-shotting it. Investor win condition -> 1 out of 10 companies returns 100x

You win condition -> this one company doesn't destroy me. An investor can absorb this variance. Founders usually can't. They only partially offset the downside with earned network, skill, and wisdom. Another core insight is this:

Kirill So reposted

Journalism: Monetizing your cortisol. Politics: Monetizing your tribalism. Crypto: Monetizing your FOMO. Rationalism: Monetizing the feeling that you’re the only special person in the room who knows what the word "Monetizing" actually implies

Kirill So reposted

I built an open-source site that maps how AI is changing work in Singapore. It covers 562 occupations and 88 estimated modern roles. Some jobs are exposed. Some are protected. Some are under pressure and still in demand.

Kirill So reposted

Mitchell is one of the best engineers of our time and has zero affiliation with any vendors. It's worth understanding how he warmed up to AI tools and the very pragmatic ways he uses them (and avoids overuse,) and also the gripes he has with the tools and, in general, AI+open source

The Pragmatic Engineer.@pragmaticengineer.com

How Mitchell Hashimoto (creator of Ghostty, founder of HashiCorp) got good at using AI tools for coding + work: "I was forcing myself to figure out how to prompt the agent to produce the same quality result as mine. Even though I was working much slower because it was more than double the work."

I built an open-source site that maps how AI is changing work in Singapore. It covers 562 occupations and 88 estimated modern roles. Some jobs are exposed. Some are protected. Some are under pressure and still in demand.

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I built an open-source site that maps how AI is changing work in Singapore. It covers 562 occupations and 88 estimated modern roles. Some jobs are exposed. Some are protected. Some are under pressure and still in demand.

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The site is more than a scorecard. You can: • search occupations • compare jobs side by side • browse estimated modern roles • see labour reality separately from structural pressure • inspect offset potential and transition support • read the methodology and download the data

What it does not do: It does not predict layoffs. It does not claim to measure reinstatement directly. It measures structural pressure, then publishes labour context and offset/support separately.

I built an open-source site that maps how AI is changing work in Singapore. It covers 562 occupations and 88 estimated modern roles. Some jobs are exposed. Some are protected. Some are under pressure and still in demand.

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A few numbers from the current release: 27% of occupations land in the high or very high pressure bands. About SGD 56B in estimated annual wages sits inside those occupations. 80 occupations show official demand signals overall. 23 high-pressure occupations still show those demand signals.

That last group is the interesting one. Software developers. Cyber risk specialists. Cloud specialists. Compliance and risk roles. AI changes the work. It does not erase the job overnight.

I built an open-source site that maps how AI is changing work in Singapore. It covers 562 occupations and 88 estimated modern roles. Some jobs are exposed. Some are protected. Some are under pressure and still in demand.

At the core is a structural pressure model: AI exposure × human bottleneck × market modifier Exposure uses 4 published sources. No LLM assigns the score.

I've been silently enjoying various food videos from Japan and Korea. Just look at these bad boys! There seems to be an entire world of people just shooting how various restos do local burgers, egg balls, and cool local twists on cuisine.

Kirill So reposted

One of my favourite and recent finds is Dialectic podcast by @jdahl.bsky.social‬ It has: ✅ Interesting guests that are not super mainstream ✅ Multidisciplinary topics: life, business, tech, philosophy, writing, etc. ✅ Digestible length ✅ Thoughtful questions