Kyle Meng

Kyle Meng

@kylemeng.com

Professor at UCSB Bren School and Econ Dept. Climate and Energy Director at emLab. Former White House CEA Senior Climate Economist. Associate at @nber.org @csis.org. Board member @ucsusa.bsky.social. Personal views. www.kylemeng.com

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There's some misguided messaging out there in California trying to take advantage of high gas prices from the Iran bombings and CARB's cap-and-invest rule making. Some are using this moment of high gas prices to delay CARB's cap-and-invest rule making. 1/

latimes.comFuel, energy prices raise the pressure as California officials take next steps on climateA plan to strengthen California's climate program faces pushback as industry groups and some lawmakers warn the changes could drive up already-high energy costs.
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Furthermore, California's gasoline prices are rising similarly to that of other U.S. regions, as shown in the plot below. This counters arguments that California's policies such as cap-and-invest are worsening the gas price impact of the Iran bombings. 3/

And if anything, California's efforts to increase EV adoption reduce the pain of high gasoline prices. When EVs are widely available, households are more able to substitute away from gasoline usage during moments like this. And California has the highest per capita adoption of EVs. /n

There's some misguided messaging out there in California trying to take advantage of high gas prices from the Iran bombings and CARB's cap-and-invest rule making. Some are using this moment of high gas prices to delay CARB's cap-and-invest rule making. 1/

latimes.comFuel, energy prices raise the pressure as California officials take next steps on climateA plan to strengthen California's climate program faces pushback as industry groups and some lawmakers warn the changes could drive up already-high energy costs.

Let's get the causality and economics of this straight. The higher gas prices we're seeing is driven by the Iran bombings. That is a global supply shock that has nothing to do with California's cap-and-invest program. 2/

So much coverage on the EPA endangerment repeal but has anyone actually seen the final rule? Not on WH, EPA, or Federal Register sites. Where is this actual repeal?

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Our results also suggest that sequencing a carbon tariff first before a domestic performance fee may be ineffective. Once a carbon tariff is adopted, a domestic fee lowers output relative to the tariff, making the domestic fee less attractive. This amounts to granting the carrot before the stick. 7/

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RESULT 2: If CCA were implemented as a carbon tariff without a domestic performance fee, U.S. GHG emissions rise and emissions abroad fall. Without a domestic performance fee, CCA cut global GHGs by two-thirds as much, raise one-third the revenue, and deliver smaller U.S. GDP & welfare gains. 5/

RESULT 3: CCA climate clubs magnify global emissions reductions. For example, when clubs require domestic policies, global CITE emissions decrease by 24.2% in an OECD+Brazil+China+Indonesia+India club. Without domestic policies, the same club decreases global CITE emissions by 1.2%. 6/

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Greg Casey (Williams), Ivan Rudik (Cornell) and I use a general-equilibrium global trade model custom-built for climate and trade policies to analyze CCA’s U.S. and global economic and climate impacts. Here are key results. 3/

Result 1: CCA lowers U.S. CITE emissions by 8%. CCA lowers global CITE emissions by 44.9 mtons, 16.3 mtons from U.S. and 28.6 mtons from abroad. It raises $10.6B in revenue annually. While CITE output is slightly lower, CCA has essentially no effect on U.S. GDP. If anything, GDP rises slightly. 4/

CCA pairs a U.S. domestic carbon performance fee applied to dirtier-than-average U.S. firms with a carbon import tariff in carbon-intensive, trade-exposed (CITE) sectors. It also has climate club provisions that waive carbon tariffs for trade partners with comparable domestic climate policies. 2/

If you you miss reading a proper cost-benefit analysis of environmental policy, one that fully accounts for costs AND benefits, here's California CARB's proposed GHG cap-and-invest regulations, dropped at noon. No "we won't value public health benefits just because they're uncertain" shenanigans.

ww2.arb.ca.govCap-and-Invest Regulation | California Air Resources BoardProposed 2026 Amendments to the Cap-and-Invest (formerly Cap-and-Trade) Regulation The preliminary documents posted below have been submitted to the Office of Administrative Law (OAL) and may be modif...

This runs counter to how cost-benefit analyses have been conducted by the U.S. government for decades, across both Republican and Democratic administrations. 2/

And it obviates the very reason why the EPA even exists, which is to balance the public health benefits and compliance costs of U.S. environmental policies. Why do anything to clean up the environment if one assumes there are no benefits? /n

Sen. Whitehouse, Rep. DelBene, & co-sponsors just introduced a revamped Clean Competition Act (CCA). CCA is the most ambitious & meticulously crafted climate policy from this Congress. It lays a marker for what US policy looks like in this era of geopolitical competition. 1/ #climatesky #energysky

epw.senate.govWhitehouse, DelBene Reintroduce Carbon Border Adjustment to Boost Domestic Manufacturers, Tackle Climate ChangeClean Competition Act bolsters American companies’ competitiveness and cuts emissions at home and abroad Washington, D.C. - Senator Whitehouse (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on E...
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My team at @emlab.ucsb.edu has been building a state-of-the-art global computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model to evaluate the economic and climate implications—both for the U.S. and globally—of paired domestic and trade climate policies like CCA. 8/

Stay tuned in the coming weeks as we apply this model to analyze CCA’s impacts on U.S. competitiveness, GHG emissions, GDP, and government revenue, as well as the impacts on our trading partners. /n

Sen. Whitehouse, Rep. DelBene, & co-sponsors just introduced a revamped Clean Competition Act (CCA). CCA is the most ambitious & meticulously crafted climate policy from this Congress. It lays a marker for what US policy looks like in this era of geopolitical competition. 1/ #climatesky #energysky

epw.senate.govWhitehouse, DelBene Reintroduce Carbon Border Adjustment to Boost Domestic Manufacturers, Tackle Climate ChangeClean Competition Act bolsters American companies’ competitiveness and cuts emissions at home and abroad Washington, D.C. - Senator Whitehouse (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on E...
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Pillar #3: Domestic decarbonization investments CCA returns revenue from the domestic performance fee & carbon import tariffs through grants, loans, & rebates to accelerate US industrial decarbonization. In this era of budget deficits, CCA provides climate spending in a budget-neutral package. 6/

Together, these three pillars provide a comprehensive system of carrots and sticks for both domestic and foreign producers. CCA recognizes the challenges of domestic industrial decarbonization and the geopolitical opportunities of trade agreements. 7/

Sen. Whitehouse, Rep. DelBene, & co-sponsors just introduced a revamped Clean Competition Act (CCA). CCA is the most ambitious & meticulously crafted climate policy from this Congress. It lays a marker for what US policy looks like in this era of geopolitical competition. 1/ #climatesky #energysky

epw.senate.govWhitehouse, DelBene Reintroduce Carbon Border Adjustment to Boost Domestic Manufacturers, Tackle Climate ChangeClean Competition Act bolsters American companies’ competitiveness and cuts emissions at home and abroad Washington, D.C. - Senator Whitehouse (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on E...
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Pillar #2: Carbon import tariff with climate club provisions US decarbonization is of little use if the rest of the world doesn’t also act. To level playing field, CCA imposes a carbon tariff on imports from countries that are dirtier on average than the U.S., at the same $60/ton CO2e rate. 4/

Importantly, CCA waives the US carbon tariff if a trade partner adopts comparable domestic climate policy. This is crucial, as it lays the groundwork for a US-led global climate club: a trade agreement that rewards domestic climate action with market access. 5/

Sen. Whitehouse, Rep. DelBene, & co-sponsors just introduced a revamped Clean Competition Act (CCA). CCA is the most ambitious & meticulously crafted climate policy from this Congress. It lays a marker for what US policy looks like in this era of geopolitical competition. 1/ #climatesky #energysky

epw.senate.govWhitehouse, DelBene Reintroduce Carbon Border Adjustment to Boost Domestic Manufacturers, Tackle Climate ChangeClean Competition Act bolsters American companies’ competitiveness and cuts emissions at home and abroad Washington, D.C. - Senator Whitehouse (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on E...

Manufacturing is where climate policy meets global competition. In some sectors, US is among cleanest (eg metals). In others US is falling behind (eg EVs, renewables). CCA aims for US industries to be globally competitive while achieving GHG cuts at home and abroad through 3 pillars. 2/

Pillar #1: Domestic performance fee CCA applies a performance fee of $60/ton CO2e to U.S. firms that are dirtier than U.S. average. Firms that are cleaner than average face no fee. This creates an incentive for dirtier firms to clean up, and for cleaner firms to stay ahead. 3/

Our "Dodging Day Zero" paper is out in JEEA. We uncover how Cape Town avoided 2017's catastrophic drought. But in doing so, created longer term sustainability challenges and weakened the fiscal viability of public water. A lesson for the 1B living in drought vulnerable cities. #climatesky #econsky

jeeanews.bsky.social@jeeanews.bsky.social

Forthcoming article "Dodging Day Zero: Drought, Adaptation, and Inequality in Cape Town" by Alexander Abajian, Cassandra Cole, B Kelsey Jack, @kylemeng.com and Martine Visser @eeanews.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/jeea...

Our PhD job market candidates continues UCSB’s proud tradition in environmental and resource economics. Here are our students on the market this year (in alphabetical order). #econsky

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Our PhD job market candidates continues UCSB’s proud tradition in environmental and resource economics. Here are our students on the market this year (in alphabetical order). #econsky

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Our PhD job market candidates continues UCSB’s proud tradition in environmental and resource economics. Here are our students on the market this year (in alphabetical order). #econsky

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Our PhD job market candidates continues UCSB’s proud tradition in environmental and resource economics. Here are our students on the market this year (in alphabetical order). #econsky

Governor Newsom just reauthorized California’s centerpiece climate policy - cap and invest - for the next two decades, reducing pollution and electricity prices in the world’s 4th biggest economy. This is now the US’ most important climate policy.

California Assembly and Senate just passed AB 1207, extending and strengthening the state’s centerpiece climate policy - cap and invest- for the next 20 years. Now onto the governor’s signature! #climatesky #energysky