Michael A. Gayed, CFA
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
@leadlagreport.bsky.social
5x Dow & Founders Award Winner. Risk-On/Off $RORO ETF, Junk-On/Off $JOJO ETF, & $ATACX Mutual Fund Portfolio Manager. Publisher Of The Lead-Lag Report.
1.7K followers3.5K following3.3K posts
Until July 1991, most Indian industries needed a government licence to build or expand. Then most didn't. FDI: $74 million in 1991, $40.8 billion in 2025. Real GDP per person: up 4.7x, per the World Bank. The permit was the bottleneck. www.freemarketsreport.com
Sudan ordered flour prices held. On Sunday the mills raised a 25kg sack to SDG 190,500 from about SDG 165,000, and Khartoum bakers say families now get half the bread for the same money. A price order can't grow wheat. www.freemarketsreport.com
I wrote the foreword to my father's book in my own voice. Read it here, then find the paperback and Kindle editions: www.leadlagreport.com/my-fathers-b...
On Oct. 16 a judge certified an Olive Garden tip-credit case built partly on the 80/20 side-work rule. On Oct. 19 the Labor Department withdrew the last letters that rule came from. www.freemarketsreport.com/a-judge-cert...
Pakistan's regulator says LPG costs Rs279 a kilo this month. After a border closure cut imports, Lahore is paying up to Rs570, and some vendors now sell only under the counter. A price cap doesn't set the price. It decides who gets served. www.freemarketsreport.com
Today 2:00 PM ET: Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors on Lead-Lag Live. Housing, the Fed, inflation versus CPI, and the 10-year. Free, with Q&A: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
One deregulation story and one stock idea, every day, free. I read the rule so you don't have to, then tell you who wins. www.freemarketsreport.com
Argentina's monthly inflation: 25.5% in December 2023, 1.9% in September 2026, per INDEC. The 12-month rate is still 33.4%, so it isn't fixed. It is a lot less broken. www.freemarketsreport.com
The NRC will stop re-proving what the government already proved. From Nov. 25, reactor applicants can use test data from reactors DOE or the military already authorized and ran. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-nrc-will...
Saint Paul voted in rent control in 2021. Nine months later, property values sat 4.0% to 5.5% below the five surrounding counties, and 8+ unit buildings lost 13.7%. Cap the price and the asset reprices. www.freemarketsreport.com
Tomorrow 2:00 PM ET: Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors on Lead-Lag Live, two days before the Fed decides. Free, with Q&A: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Treasury's first rule on the ban on big investors buying homes covers 0.66% of U.S. single-family homes and lets the largest landlords keep growing. The people locked out are mid-size owners. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-treasury...
Monday 2:00 PM ET: Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors on Lead-Lag Live. The 10-year, inflation versus CPI, housing and the Fed. Register free: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Week in review: the OCC left stablecoin rewards alone, the SEC signaled the end of the trade-through rule for Q1 2027, and five of my seven daily stock ideas are above entry. One week is noise. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-week-in-...
$100 in an equity total-return index in January 1990 reached about $4,736 by July 2026 in nominal terms. Adjusted for CPI, about $1,807. Same path, different question. From the third edition: www.amazon.com/dp/B0HL7CXDLX
The SEC's trade-through rule may be gone in Q1 2027, per its trading director. The real fight is fees: the access fee cap, tick sizes and market data formula get decided at the same time. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-sec-want...
Third edition of Intermarket Analysis and Investing, now in hardcover ($54.95), plus paperback and Kindle. www.amazon.com/dp/B0HN8JRVT6
The OCC finalized its stablecoin rule and dropped the presumption that partner rewards evade the yield ban. It did not legalize them, it just will not assume they are illegal. Right call, but a gray zone is not a law. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-occ-left...
Stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities do not move in isolation. The premise of Intermarket Analysis and Investing is to read them together. Third edition on Kindle, $9.99: www.amazon.com/dp/B0HLCSR574
Treasury withdrew a rule that could have made tax-free spin-offs taxable by formula, whatever the business reason. Right call, but it is a retreat, not a statute. Congress should define the line. www.freemarketsreport.com/treasury-wit...
Operators and employees: what is one rule you were required to follow that nobody could explain? Name it. I will read every answer and reply to the best ones, including the ones that defend the rule. freemarketsreport.com
Fraser Institute, Economic Freedom of the World 2026: GDP per person in the freest quartile is $65,596, in the least free quartile $9,552. Extreme poverty is 2% vs 41%. It also projects a US decline next year. Strong evidence, not proof, and I say so. freemarketsreport.com
FERC wants LNG plants to stop filing for permission every time they swap a part. A three-tier blanket program: automatic, 60-day notice, 90-day notice. Right idea, but big expansions still need orders. www.freemarketsreport.com/ferc-wants-l...
Hungary capped retail margins at 10% on some foods. The European Commission puts real retail profit margins at 3% to 4%, so stores may be forced to sell at a loss. Made permanent in May 2026. Food groups now want it scrapped. Temporary price rules last. freemarketsreport.com
Deregulation only counts if costs fall. When you read an earnings report, what one line would convince you a rule rollback actually worked? Margins, headcount, capex, something else? I will answer the best replies. freemarketsreport.com
The equity index in the book fell 55.25% from October 2007 to March 2009. It took 1,637 calendar days from the peak to regain it. A drawdown is a path, not a single number. Third edition: www.leadlagreport.com/books/
Oregon has the heaviest occupational licensing burden in the US, Texas is second, Missouri is lightest. More than 20% of US workers are directly affected. A license you must re-earn in every state is a toll booth on a paycheck. freemarketsreport.com
Ten kinds of flight disruption, including some maintenance, stop being the airline's fault in 2027, and passengers may get fewer hotels and meals. Better answer: airlines compete on written guarantees. www.freemarketsreport.com/ten-kinds-of...
Bangladesh's regulator set a 12kg LPG cylinder at Tk 1,837 this month. Buyers in major cities pay up to Tk 2,500, about 36% more. A cap does not create gas. It decides who waits and what they pay on the side. freemarketsreport.com
One question for builders, renters and skeptics: what is the first rule you would repeal, not add, to make rent cheaper within five years? I will answer the best replies and say where I disagree. freemarketsreport.com
Rent control in San Francisco: landlords cut rental housing supply 15% and renter mobility was limited 20%, per one American Economic Review study. Fair counterpoint: a UCLA study of San Diego's looser cap saw no exits so far. Design matters. freemarketsreport.com
ATF has stopped requiring approval and registration for silencers and short-barreled rifles and shotguns, for everyone. Good policy, shaky method: it is enforcement discretion, not law. Congress should write it down. www.freemarketsreport.com/atf-stopped-...
The Free Markets Report: one deregulation story and one stock idea, every day, free. Every Idea gets an entry price and goes on a public scorecard, losers included. I would rather be checked than trusted. freemarketsreport.com
Steelman request: what is the strongest case for a price cap you have seen, in any market? Advocates and skeptics both welcome. I will answer the best one and say whether it moves me. freemarketsreport.com
A court says the FCC never had the legal power to create USAC, the nonprofit running the $9 billion Universal Service Fund. The 38.1% factor was vacated. The fund survives, and the fix belongs with Congress. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-fcc-neve...
Russia's pump prices are steady and the fuel is not. About 70 drone strikes this year put up to 30% of production offline at times; 50 regions have shortages or rationing. The cap did not cause that. It hides it. freemarketsreport.com
The IMF: price-suppressing measures can need 3 to 22 times more than targeted cash for comparable protection.¹ In Europe's 2022-23 crisis, under 20 cents of each euro reached the poorest fifth.² Protect the person, not the price. Sources: ¹ IMF WEO ² IMF blog freemarketsreport.com
Quick poll for advocates and skeptics: power, housing, health care or schools. Which regulated market would improve most if competitors were allowed in, and what could go wrong? Best answers get a reply from me. freemarketsreport.com
Seven rules moved this week. Six FMR stock Ideas followed. Equal-weighted since entry: -2.6%¹. ICE +3.4%, HOOD -8.9%¹. Not advice. Ranked week and scorecard: www.freemarketsreport.com/the-week-in-...
Argentina's monthly inflation: 25.5% in December 2023,¹ 1.9% in September 2026.² The 12-month rate is still 33.4%, so this is progress and not a finish line.² My bet: a currency people trust beats another price freeze. Sources: ¹ INDEC, Jan 2024 ² INDEC, Oct 2026 freemarketsreport.com
My father Ehab Gayed wrote Intermarket Analysis and Investing. The third edition is out and extends his framework through 2026. Paperback: www.leadlagreport.com/books/
The SEC let brokers put projections and target returns in writing, with a 4th exception to FINRA's ban¹. It dropped 3 express guardrails², including fee-net disclosure. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-sec-just...
CPSC says engine cleaners are not fuel, 13 months after a court said so¹. It avoids $545.7M a year², with zero reported incidents². www.freemarketsreport.com/a-judge-said...
Two answers, please. One market where competition made the product cheaper and better in your lifetime. One where a rule made it neither. Advocates and skeptics, I will reply to the best ones. freemarketsreport.com
The $1.5 trillion deregulation headline came mostly from three rules.¹ The other 149 rules: nearly $25B.¹ Agencies self-reported every number. I want fewer rules and an honest count. Sources: ¹ American Action Forum freemarketsreport.com
Payrolls rose 29,000 in September. Factories are asking what gets automated. Today, 10 AM ET: Made in USA, The State of American Robotics. Sponsored by Chang Robotics. us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...