Levels Ledger

Today's biggest $SPY gamma pile sits at 767, right under price. 767 is both the floor and the magnet, with the cap at 770.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Tue Oct 27 8:45 AM ET · Not advice.

SPY spent the afternoon within a dollar of its 765 cap and closed 37 cents over it, at 765.37. The 760 floor was never touched.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Mon Oct 26 8:35 PM ET · Not advice.

Busy Monday, and options are pricing a smaller day for Tuesday than they did for today. Tomorrow's $SPY expected move is about ±$3.29, roughly 762 to 768.6.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Mon Oct 26 5:34 PM ET · Not advice.

Futures opened green tonight and gave it all back. In $SPY terms: a 763.7 high at 6:45 PM, then about 759.9 by 8:55, right on Friday's close. Catch the reopen? Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup Sun Oct 25 · As of 8:55 PM ET · Not advice.

A same-day option loses more of its value in the last two hours than in the first four.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup Sun Oct 25 · Prices as of Fri close · Education only, not advice.

The biggest pile of $SPY contracts above price for Friday's expiry wasn't our cap. It sat at 790, about 34,100 open.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Sun Oct 25 11:31 AM ET · Not advice.

Thursday, the biggest put pile under $QQQ was 708: about 11,800 contracts, half an expected move below price (±$11.14 priced). That's a support zone.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Sun Oct 25 10:33 AM ET · Not advice.

148,330 contracts traded Friday at one $SPY strike, the Oct 30 755 put. Open interest there going in was 23,470.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup Prices as of Friday's close. Education only, not advice.

Last weekend, options priced about a $12 move in $SPY for the week. It moved $3.28, close to close.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup Prices as of Friday's close. Education only, not advice.

A few cents. That's how far $SPY missed its 760 floor today, closing at 759.97 after a dip to 758.68 this morning. The 765 cap held.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Fri Oct 23 8:20 PM ET · Not advice.

SPY options priced ±$5.24 at 8:30. 760 floor, 765 cap inside it. QQQ: 700 floor, 710 cap. 760 got tagged at 758.68, then SPY got back above it. 7 days free: https://levelsledger.com/checkout?tier=standard&utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=paid_preview Not advice.

Calmer night after yesterday's AI rout. $SPY is near 762, between the 760 floor and 765, its cap and magnet. $QQQ: 700 floor, 710 cap and magnet. Education only. Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Fri Oct 23 8:26 AM ET · Not advice.

The QQQ floor was the one that cracked today. META and the chip stocks dragged the Nasdaq down 2.6%, its worst day since June. $QQQ closed at 704.47, under the 708 floor.… As of Thu Oct 22 8:36 PM ET · Not advice.

Rough day for tech. $QQQ fell almost 3% and $SPY mostly shrugged it off. For Friday, options price about ±$4.85 on SPY, roughly 759 to 769.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Thu Oct 22 5:40 PM ET · Not advice.

Thu Oct 22 levels, running late. Futures are red after $TSLA fell on earnings despite a beat. $SPY 766.25 premarket (-0.9%) as of 8:30 ET. Cap 771, floor 760.… Free 8:30 Map: levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=signup As of Thu Oct 22 8:33 AM ET · Not advice.

Late Wed: $TSLA beat (48¢ vs 45¢), but AI and robotaxi spending is eating margins. It's 369.06 after hours, -4.5%. $META beat and guided higher, +1.1%. $QQQ 717.18 (-1.1%), $SPY 768.99 (-0.5%). Brent over $110. SPY sits between Thu's early 765 floor and 774 cap. As of 11:05 PM ET · Not advice.

Both caps gave way at the bell today, and one of them by 9 cents. $SPY closed at 773.09, just over the 773 cap (high 774.44). The 768 floor never broke (low 768.40). $QQQ closed at 725.20, over the 725 cap.… Wed Oct 21 · As of 8:45 ET · Not advice.

$SPY is sitting just above its biggest gamma node of the week, 769 on Friday's expiry. Today's map: 773 cap, 768 floor. Options price about a ±$3.39 move. $QQQ: 725 cap, 720 floor.… Wed Oct 21 · As of 8:40 ET · Not advice.

Price crossed two of today's four lines during the session, and both maps were back on the right side at the bell. $SPY slipped to 764.25, under the 765 floor, then closed at 769.05. The 775 cap was never reached (high 772.29).… Tue Oct 20 · As of 8:45 ET · Not advice.

$SPCX moved more after hours than options had priced in for its first profitable quarter as a public company. Straddle at the close: ±$10.53 (±7.1%). After hours: +8.1%. Next up: the lockup expires Thursday, freeing up to 1.3B shares. Tue Oct 20 · As of 8:18 ET · Not advice.

Tomorrow's expected move: options price ±$4.28 on $SPY (about 767.02–775.58). $QQQ: ±$7.25 (about 714.84–729.34). Cap 775 / floor 765 on SPY, today's map. Graded tomorrow night, misses included. Tue Oct 20 · As of 5:30 ET · Not advice.

Options price a ±$3.75 SPY move today. $QQQ gets ±$5.80. 775 cap, 768 magnet, 765 floor. $QQQ 720 cap and magnet, 705 floor. $SPY is near 764.55 premarket, just under the 765 floor. About 10.2k puts sit at 765 on today's expiry.… Tue Oct 20 · As of 8:15 ET · Not advice.

4 for 4 on the Monday map, caps and floors. $SPY tagged 770.46 before noon and closed at 766.48, under the 770 cap. The 765 floor never broke. The low was 765.82. $QQQ ran through the 720 cap to 724.55, then closed back under it at 718.36.… Mon Oct 19 · As of 8:40 ET · Not advice.

Tomorrow's expected move: options price ±$4.20 on $SPY (about 762.80–771.20). $QQQ: ±$6.62 (about 712.40–725.63). Cap 770 / floor 765 on SPY, today's map. Graded tomorrow night, misses included. Mon Oct 19 · As of 5:30 ET · Not advice.

$SPY's biggest gamma node this week is 769, on Friday's Oct 23 expiry, by our estimate from open interest. Options price a ±$3.89 SPY move today. 770 cap, 766 magnet, 765 floor. QQQ 720 / 717 / 710. Starting today the floor gets graded at the close too. Mon Oct 19 · As of 8:15 ET · Not advice.

Next Friday's $QQQ 690 put and 730 call both sit $20 from Friday's 709.80 close. The put costs about $3.81 (IV 28.6%). The call costs about $1.56 (IV 19.5%). 2.4x more, same distance. That's skew: the market charges more for a drop than a rally. Sun Oct 18 · Prices as of Fri close · Not advice.

A cap on our map is the strike above price with the heaviest call positioning. Tuesday's $SPY cap was 780. Options priced ±$2.77, and 780 sat $1.90 above Monday's close, inside that range. SPY peaked at 778.75 and closed 778.01. A cap inside the priced range is the one to watch. Not advice.

$SPY's biggest call piles for Oct 23 sit at 785 and 790, about 12,000 each. On Monday's ±$6.24 straddle, 785 is 3.5 expected moves above Friday's 763 close. On the Oct 23 straddle (±$12) it's 1.8. Same strike, same dollars, different distance. Sun Oct 18 · Prices as of Fri close · Not advice.

Friday morning the $SPY straddle priced about $4.20. From the 773.20 open to the 763.25 close, SPY moved $9.95, about 2.4x that. Monday's straddle is now about $6.24. For Oct 23 it's about ±$12 (751 to 775), and the biggest put pile, 745, sits $6 below that range. Sat Oct 17 · Not advice.

A $SPY 763 call expiring Monday closed Friday near $3.06. The one expiring next Friday: $6.19. Nov 20: $15.32. 25 times the trading days for about 5 times the price. Option prices grow with the square root of time, so decay speeds up near expiry. Sat Oct 17 · Prices as of Fri close · Not advice.

The $SPY 769 put for next Friday traded 44,693 contracts today. Open interest this morning: 20,245. Volume counts every trade, opening or closing. Open interest counts what's still open and only updates overnight. Monday's number shows what stuck. Fri Oct 16 · As of 9:05 ET · Not advice.

Price closed under all 16 caps graded this week. N = 16, 0 misses, 0 pushes. The market slid most of the week. That's easy on caps. Cap: hit on a close under. Support zone: hit on a close above. On it: push. Past results don't predict future results. Fri Oct 16 · As of 4:15 ET · Not advice.

765 didn't last. $SPY slipped under the floor after 1, down to 762.23, and it's near 763 now. Next big put pile today is 760, about 35.7k. $QQQ is down about 2.3% near 711. 775 cap, 770 magnet, 765 floor. $QQQ 730 / 727 / 720. Fri Oct 16 · As of 2:10 ET · Not advice.

The 770 magnet gave way. $SPY is near 766 now, about a dollar above the 765 floor. $QQQ never got back over 720 after the morning dip. It's near 715.60, the weaker of the two again. 775 cap, 770 magnet, 765 floor. $QQQ 730 / 727 / 720. Fri Oct 16 · As of 12:48 ET · Not advice.

$QQQ dipped through 720 early, down to 719.77, and climbed back near 722. $SPY is near 772 after tagging 770.48. Still under the 775 cap and above the 765 floor. 775 cap, 770 magnet, 765 floor. $QQQ 730 / 727 / 720. Fri Oct 16 · As of 10:53 ET · Not advice.

$SPY is about two bucks under the 775 cap premarket, near 773. 775 cap, 770 magnet, 765 floor. $QQQ 730 / 727 / 720. Monthly expiration day. About 34k calls at 775 and 38k puts at 765. Fri Oct 16 · As of 8:15 ET · Not advice.

Yesterday: how to turn VIX into a one-day band. Today: how often it holds. $SPY finished inside that band on 55 of 64 sessions (about 86%) over the last 3 months. Today moved about 0.3% vs a band of about 1.1%. Thu Oct 15 · As of 9:10 ET · Not advice.

Both caps held after the PPI flush. SPY closed 771.79 under 775. QQQ 728.00 under 730. N=2 · 0 misses. Cap hit = close under. 90-15, N=105. Tomorrow: SPY 780/770/765. QQQ 730/730/725. https://levelsledger.com/map?utm_source=bsky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=grade Thu Oct 15 · Not advice.

$RKLB is down almost 10%, day two after the Neutron delay news. It dipped to 49.69 and is back near 53.40. 55 cap, 50 support zone. $COIN went the other way, up almost 5%. 180 support zone, 185 cap with about 10.7k calls, 170 floor. Thu Oct 15 · As of 2:05 ET · Not advice.

Anyone else catch that $QQQ flush? It dropped to 715.43, below the 720 floor, and it's back near 722 already. $SPY is near 769, still above 760 and under 775. 775 cap, 770 magnet, 760 floor. $QQQ 730 / 730 / 720. Thu Oct 15 · As of 10:54 ET · Not advice.

$SPY closed at 769.60 after breaking 770. Still under it into the open. Today's straddle about $4.99. $QQQ about $10.61. 775 cap, 770 magnet, 760 floor. $QQQ 730 / 730 / 720. Thu Oct 15 · As of 8:55 ET · Not advice.

VIX is yearly. Divide by ~16 (√252) and you get the one-day move options are pricing. VIX 16.9 → about 1.1% on $SPY, roughly $8 either way from 769.60. Not a prediction. Just the one-day band. Wed Oct 14 · As of 9:06 ET · Not advice.

Rough day after CPI. Caps held, floors broke. SPY closed 769.60 under 780, through 770. QQQ 728.95 under 750, through 730. N=2 · 0 misses. Cap hit = close under. Tomorrow: SPY 780 / 777 / 760. QQQ 750 / 744 / 720. Free levels: levelsledger.com/map Wed Oct 14 · Not advice.

$SPY blew through the 770 floor. Low so far is 767.50 and it's near 768 now. $QQQ did the same under 730, low 727.83. 770 is the new cap overhead, about 12k puts still stacked there. 765 magnet, 760 floor. $QQQ 730 / 725 / 720. Wed Oct 14 · As of 2:10 ET · Not advice.

CPI hit and $SPY slid under 776. Near 775 now. Today's straddle about $4.95. $QQQ about $7.80. 780 cap, 777 magnet, 770 floor. $QQQ 750 / 745 / 730. About 15k calls at 780. Bigger pile at 790, about 22.5k. Wed Oct 14 · As of 9:05 ET · Not advice.