Dr. Marcus H. Johnson

Most political narratives/messaging is complete bs and totally irrelevant to outcomes. The strongest predictors of elections are Presidential approval and how people feel about the economy. Because standard of living is declining at all income levels, the party in power will keep being punished.

Largest bailout in US history incoming.

“Please ban open source models so we can extract monopoly rents forever. If you don’t we go broke and we’re long hundreds of billions.”

US allies are learning in real time that our government is not strong enough to protect them.

As bad as the war with Iran is going you can forget about war with China lol. Just a pipe dream in dc now.

Airstrikes alone do not win wars. Decapitation strikes do not win wars. Only boots on the ground and risking real casualties can produce a win against an armed and insulated opponent. And even then its no guarantee. You can’t win a war on the cheap. Or with headlines.

What we’re watching in the Iran war is two types of propaganda illusions being shattered in real time: The illusion of Trump’s power, and the illusion of American military might. Trump will emerge from this broken, weak, enfeebled. And so will US military power. Iran has broken them both.

We have a class of political and economic elites (and the well paid professionals who do their bidding) who are absolutely delusional about the limits of American power. Both internally and externally. The next decade is going to be a difficult exercise of being forced to accept painful realities.

I don’t think we appreciate quite how close we are to global energy catastrophe. And the demand destruction and job losses and fuel insecurity that would surely follow. We sit on the precipice. Elites and the masses alike are blinded by legions of political propaganda courtiers paid to sell nonsense

Hard to put into words the magnitude of the geopolitical loss Israel and the US are facing right now. They’re trying to buy time in DC. Hoping for a miracle like Ukraine. The ramifications of this are so staggering as to be thought impossible. So they’re ignoring…suppressing…downplaying. Just wait

Elites and markets are pricing basically an imminent end to the war on US terms. This is obviously delusional. Not only has the war already gone on for far longer than thr US and Israel predicted, but it could stretch out into 2027-2028. Oil reserves almost depleted, early stage global shock

The best deal the US has left is to walk away, leaving the strait in Iranian hands and defacto declaring them regional hegemon. The problem is the consequences for US wealth/power and Israel’s future are catastrophic. Hence the push for delays when its clear DC has no cards to play.

Evanston, Ill., became the first U.S. city to compensate Black people for historical discrimination. The Justice Department is trying to kill its program before other cities follow suit. n.pr/4hqselp

This was actually prescient, the US is leaving the middle east now. The gulf bases are being destroyed and abandoned, the US left Afghanistan and is leaving Iraq, Iran has become the de facto regional hegemon. The US is in deep internal turmoil, losing badly abroad, and living standards in free fall

From Bernie to MAGA 😂

What’s more interesting though, is what the LLM mania says about society. We’re so willing to uncritically buy bullshit from openly craven and deceptive people because we’re so desperate for change, and we have a gluttonous appetite for wealth and power. But delusions cannot maintained indefinitely

Nobody would say “your calculator is going to become sentient and take over the world” because you’d get laughed out of the room. Ten years from now people will look back at the LLM mania with clarity and feel the same way. Its just everyone lies constantly, brazenly, to boost share prices now.

LLMs are not “intelligent” in any sense of the word, they cannot create anything that doesn’t already exist. Its infinitely closer to autocorrect. Intelligence is a merely a marketing term…don’t let hope and greed cloud your judgement.

Nobody actually believes a LLM is going to become a machine god and end humanity. Its a stupid marketing ploy to dupe greedy gullible rich people who think they’re going to get an easy 1000x.

In 2 and a half months he’s an irrelevant lame duck

The fundamental philosophy of the west is machiavellianism.

The left versus establishment dichotomy has become so stale and boring. Ultimately its structural outcomes that matter (for the masses), not the rhetorical narratives used to legitimize your (elite) position.

These academics probably only believe in the freedom of racist speech.

The fundraising texts you delete are working on someone. It’s infuriating and heartbreaking. An 85yo in Ohio gave more than double the value of his home. A 91yo in an Indianapolis senior facility gave 25K times. The DCCC/DSCC don’t just tolerate the spammers who exploit seniors. They take part.

Man it’s starting to feel fall outside and I’m fucking with it.

I had a lot to say about AOC and "Woke 1.0" and why i'm sick and fucking tired of people mischaracterizing what people were mad about in 2020 (and today, if you're like me). Then Bryan lights Bob Iger on fire. Check out the whole episode. open.spotify.com/episode/5zgN...

This was Bernie’s entire campaign thesis from 2015-2020 lmao.

Its not a scandal. The US military’s theory of war is that you win immediately with expensive sophisticated weapons. Of course there’s rent extraction from oligarchs but that’s the entire economy. The US military is far weaker than people think. GDP paper $wealth buys far less than people think too.

Speaking truth to power can be quite dangerous for your social score.

She’s definitely running. Ok…let’s see how this goes then. Does this play in the suburbs and the rurals? Long way from Manhattan. Count me a skeptic. But they play the games for a reason.

The best deal the US has left is to walk away, leaving the strait in Iranian hands and defacto declaring them regional hegemon. The problem is the consequences for US wealth/power and Israel’s future are catastrophic. Hence the push for delays when its clear DC has no cards to play.

Elites and markets are pricing basically an imminent end to the war on US terms. This is obviously delusional. Not only has the war already gone on for far longer than thr US and Israel predicted, but it could stretch out into 2027-2028. Oil reserves almost depleted, early stage global shock

Iran has more allies than Trump has

Cooked

US has fumbled a the biggest lead over a number 2 in human history since the USSR collapsed. In only 30 years! Just rent extraction from elites and inflated incomes for their credentialed helpers. This loss to Iran forecloses any hope of even fighting China, let alone winning.

The DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee just voted to propose this starting order for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar:

Wealthy elites don’t face consequences. He’ll get more media features, he’ll be running more left campaigns and organizations. The entire point of being an elite is not facing consequences. Consequences are for everyone else.

This is an irrelevant fight. DSA has held local office for 10 years. What has actually changed? The decline in support for Israel is due to the country becoming less white/evangelical and thus identifying more with the Palestinians. Fundamentally this has become boring, it doesn’t actually matter.

Oil reserves running low, SOXX rolling over, US power on the decline. What’s a western oligarch to do? Fun times ahead.

Societies collapse because elites no longer believe in the system and begin undermining it for personal gain (the ones not destroyed by outside forces anyway). Trump is a symptom of this. Speech tonight is just another sign of major trouble ahead for the US political system. This isn’t a blip

"Bolsonaro has begun a twenty-seven-year prison sentence for his role in January 8, while the instigator of January 6 sits in the Oval Office...Should we in the United States try a Brazilian strategy?" spoiler: I answer yes. me, for @bostonreview.bsky.social www.bostonreview.net/articles/tru...

No pipeline in the region is out of range of Iran’s missiles and drones. If anyone overplayed their hand it was DC and Tel Aviv.

Fetterman is in Sinema territory. Approval among Democrats has plummeted so much it’s practically impossible to win a primary; overall approval ratings are artificially inflated by Republicans who like that he bucks and criticizes Dems but wouldn’t actually vote for him. Quinnipiac poll:

US and Israel have no cards against Iran. Zero. Gonna take awhile for delusional elites to get it through their heads. Will be a very painful process for them. Because geopolitically the decline is only gonna speed up and get worse.

Hey remember how I said anti-Black racism was becoming acceptable alongside sexism in certain online "left" circles after recent primaries