matthewlambert.bsky.social

Among the first "risk factors": "If we are unable to secure adequate compute or if we fail to direct our compute effectively across our workloads, we may be unable to train models that remain competitive with those of our competitors or adequately serve our customers." www.sec.gov/Archives/edg...

‘If Anthropic’s colossal paper losses shouldn’t count in adjusted earnings, neither should the large paper gains on the other side of its deals. During the second quarter alone, such gains at Amazon and Alphabet represented about 15% of S&P 500 earnings.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

U.S. API CRUDE STOCKS FELL 2.031 MLN BARRELS VERSUS A FORECAST BUILD OF 0.8 MLN AND A PRIOR 4.93 MLN DRAW, WITH CUSHING STOCKS DOWN 0.453 MLN

U.S. household spending slowing as income growth struggles to keep pace @seekingalpha

Euro following the widely-feared @katie0martin.ft.com vomiting camel formation:

Warsh has made a point of saying less. His Fed colleagues are speaking as much as they were a year ago “It’s probably the worst of all possible outcomes,” says @claudia-sahm.bsky.social. “Nobody can force him to talk for the committee. And frankly, he can’t force other committee members to shut up"

Consensus EPS forecasts for Tesla have gone straight down in the last 4 years, … @soberlook financialtimes.bsky.social

US office delinquency rates are near record highs. Markets via @hectorchamizo @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...

GS Wage Tracker remains subdued and below real-time inflation

'Anthropic's legally binding contracted obligations combined are 169x the latest annualized operating income.' roddubitsky.substack.com/p/anthropic-...

“If the AI bubble is going to burst, it’ll likely start as a credit event as neocloud and risky AI debt defaults, creating a cascade of devaluations, reduced spending and contraction (in multiples and growth).” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

JPMAM: If rates fall 1%, you'll earn 13% on the 10yr Treasury... if rates rise 1%, you'll lose 2% $TNX

Discarded survey warns wobbly bull. #econsky

Microsoft offers 60,000 golden goodbyes. #econsky

People in rich countries are unhappy. In the US they're truly miserable. Sentiment fell more in the US since 2019 than any other country. US sentiment at the 0th percentile of pre-COVID history, others generally around 25th percentile. And our economy doing better than most!

‘The truth, which Anthropic didn’t want to emphasize in the S-1, is that Q2, right at the height of tokenmaxxing was fantastic, but Q3, post tokenmaxxing and after the rise of low cost alterntive models, represented a slowing of their growth.’ garymarcus.substack.com/p/what-anthr...

CITADEL: “.. Credit is not done resetting. .. It’s going to be very tested. .. AI’s rising tide will sink some boats, and it’s a wavy tide.” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

WOLFE: “.. If AI capex growth slows to 15% (from our 35% estimated run rate) and equities fall 7%, GDP growth takes a roughly 60bp hit .. .. A severe unwind, with AI investment contracting 10% and equities falling 25%, subtracts roughly 1.7 percentage points -- that would start to hurt more ..”

GOLDMAN: “.. we are starting to see clearer signs that the AI impact is spreading beyond the technology sector. .. the share of US firms that have adopted AI in regular business functions now shows a statistically significant negative correlation with employment growth ..”

GS DESK: “.. Great parties can lead to hangovers, and it’s fair to call the current environment the latter at least with regards to the AI complex. .. .. This week we saw AI Beneficiaries (GSTMTAIP) having its worst day vs SPXXAI since DeepSeek Monday ..”

‘Increasingly capable AI systems are making it possible to discover and exploit software vulnerabilities at speeds and scales that were previously unimaginable. The economic costs will likely be enormous.‘ paulkedrosky.com/the-hackenin... by @paulkedrosky.com

Fidelity: US debt nears all-time highs. With price-sensitive private investors absorbing more Treasuries, stabilizing the load gets harder... posing real upside risks for long-term bond yields.

Is the AI boom a bubble outside Tech? 📉 Rev per worker: S&P 493 flat 📉 Profit margins: S&P 493 flat 📉 Productivity boost: None Non-tech sees AI token spend as a cost center, not growth. The macro AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7. T at Apollo

Saturday Poll. Link twitter.com/Chartfest1/s...

Gas prices edge up to $4.30 rounded AAA

BREAKING 🚨: Meta $META posted negative free cash flow for the first time in history 👀

Brent crude oil high this year: $118.35 Today’s close: $117.12 (via Schwab) ⛽️

‘Meta has a rare hit on its hands with its Muse AI agent. The question now is if it will make a big enough splash to justify hundreds of billions of dollars in capital spending. The answer is almost certainly no.’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

Folks in the Twin Cities! Please come on out on Saturday at 2pm for the Minnesota launch of my book “The People’s Historian.” Don’t just come for the program. Also it will give you the chance to check out the East Side Freedom Library: a *jewel* of an operation and resource center.

NOVARTIS: REMIBRUTINIB MEETS PRIMARY ENDPOINTS IN PHASE 3 TRIALS IN RMS

Services & Mfg PMI prices jumped markedly in the October flash read 'The overall rise in prices across goods and services was the largest since August 2022.'

UMich consumer sentiment... 48.0... 2nd-worst in history

Barclays Kroger eBay Netflix Disney Electronic Arts Campbell’s Workday AmEx @wsj.com www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

He’s everywhere. @cnbc.com @nytimes.com @politico.com

"...prices began rising immediately after the broader tariff measures were announced in early March and continued to increase gradually over subsequent months" @econofact.bsky.social econofact.org/are-tariffs-...

10-Year Treasury Yield is now testing its 50-day moving average for the first time since June 🚨

As far as I’m concerned it’s irrelevant if hyperscalers have good earnings and affirm capex intentions next week, that’s not what this is about at the moment. Short-term fundamentals aren’t important until at least the new year.

GS DESK: “.. too many overhangs to feel comfortable playing offense in a truncated calendar window (esp with FOMC, earnings, election around the corner). At least for now. .. SOX has underperformed the S&P500 by 13% over the last 9 sessions .. biggest stretch of [underperformance] in 20+ years ..”

JEFFERIES DESK: “.. in the last 10 days, we’ve been net for sale in Tech to the tune of > $1B on 7 of those days. .. And for reference, here’s our net trading flows over a 20D period, one of the more dramatic net selling periods we’ve seen in Tech in recent years.”

“.. The lowest-rated portion is expected to carry interest rates of about 8.3%, according to people familiar with the deal .. .. President Donald Trump purchased $5 million in SpaceX bonds in August.” @semafor.com $SPCX www.semafor.com/article/10/2...

JUST IN 🚨: Extreme Fear returns to the Stock Market 📉 👻 🎃

Joining the list of announced or reported layoffs: $CPB $EBAY $DIS $NFLX $WDAY $KR $QCOM

France 10yr yield > US 10yr yield for the first time since 2013 @koyfincharts

October 21, 2026 heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/october-21...

AAII changed just a little bit last week. Bulls 36.9% (-2) Bears 45.8% (+4)

A bit late: Peter Thiel said he’s skeptical of the U.S. war with Iran and does not believe the United States should have launched it (Politico) Ken Griffin said GOP erred by renewing tax cuts without room in the budget to pay for them. (Fortune)

Now at its highest level in five months.

OAT no! France 10yr yield up to 5.09% It was negative 32bps six years ago

TSA checkpoint volume still red YoY @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...