Conor Sen

Some personal news... Today I'm excited to announce the launch of the Housing Frame, a Substack where I'll be analyzing the economy through a housing lens. My debut piece is the Housing Recession is Over. Follow and subscribe here: conorsen.substack.com/p/the-housin...

New from me: A Fed Skip Tomorrow Would Be a “False Fall” conorsen.substack.com/p/a-fed-skip...

Good read. www.wsj.com/finance/broa...

You can never rule anything out, but it doesn’t feel like the kind of year where low-propensity GOP voters are going to surge to the polls on E-Day.

Already wondering about what kind of player Kate Harpring might be in the WNBA.

Feels like a lot of possible potential->kinetic energy shifts building up.

Is JetBlue going to be just a debt restructuring thing or is Scott Kirby going to get a new toy?

Interesting timing on this email:

AI stocks are oversold but it’s going to be tough for a sustainable rally with so much equity supply coming in November. For a historical example of this, see June.

Interesting that Google and Amazon symbolized enormous size, and here we have Ant.

Tough thing is arguably we’re going to pivot from a compute shortage to a pricing war at some point so it’s hard to know how to project out margins.

*ANTHROPIC FILES PUBLICLY FOR US IPO www.sec.gov/Archives/edg...

Equity raises to fund AI capex is dovish…for 2029.

*ANTHROPIC TO RELEASE S-1 AT 9AM EST: FOX BUSINESS

Glad I don’t trade EM:

Looking at the NYT voter demo project again, didn’t realize they had swing maps. Interesting how the nonwhite swing was pretty uniform but the white swing was not (and the nonwhite swing was much bigger than the white swing):

Interesting that he’d post this. Wonder if he’s trying to hurt the other neoclouds.

Big new demographic tool from the NYT — they find that between 2020-24 in Georgia, white voters shifted one percentage point towards Democrats while Black voters shifted 5 percentage points towards Republicans: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Vibes feel Valkyries-ish so far.

I feel like hyperscalers vs recipients of the hyperscaler capex spending is a better framework than Mag 7 vs the 493. $AAPL, $NVDA, and $META all have very different AI profiles, and “493” names like $MU and $CAT have obviously been beneficiaries of the spending.

Maybe hyperscalers can still work but parts of the AI trade already had their March 2000 moment and are clearly over imo:

Feels like markets are largely a function of semis/CoreWeave, oil, and 10-year yields at the moment.

@ivanthek.bsky.social $CRWV tail/dog

What will frontline Dem House members in 2027 (say in R+7 districts) be looking to do? My guess is two things — voting to repeal the tariffs and investigating corruption. They’ll want to vote no on all the progressive fiscal wish lists.

New from me: There Hasn’t Been a Housing Market Like This Since 1966 — for a variety of reasons none of 2006, 1999, nor 1980-82 really capture it conorsen.substack.com/p/there-hasn...

Markets were hot in June, so the equity issuance was well-timed. The challenge now is markets are stormier but more money needs to be raised.

@peark.es idk man I don’t think I can do this one bsky.app/profile/four...

Anyone who was in all of the 1989-91 baseball card sets seems larger than life, no matter how much of a journeyman they were.

Netflix has its challenges but if it feels like it, it can buy all the sports rights. Not sure what consumers should be rooting for.

A Dem Congress will vote to repeal the tariffs every week of 2027, right?

Some notable ones: Apple Berkshire Hathaway Best Buy BJ's Wholesale Club Coca-Cola Mastercard Trex Visa Williams-Sonoma

Mortgage rates hit 7.30% today, lowest level in a month...fluid situation obviously.

General Mills +7.5% today Kraft Heinz +6%

Fun day of posting.

Pod bros can now only choose one:

$POOL +13.5%. Just a silly, silly market.

What makes $SNDK go up from here? $META raising $500 billion instead of $50 billion?

@sellingtheta.bsky.social Okay here's the new one: