Max Dugan-Knight

Max Dugan-Knight

@maxduganknight.bsky.social

๐Ÿ“ˆ Data and climate guy ๐Ÿ’ผ Solutions Architect at Databricks ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ based in Toronto โœ๏ธ maxdk.substack.com also Arsenal โšฝ๏ธ and hip hop ๐ŸŽง

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This is obviously a good thing for global emissions. It's also a good thing because it weakens the position of fossil exporters like the US eager to keep us trapped in fossil dependence. Those powers are losing the energy future despite their best efforts. The world is better for it.

A lot of talk at various COPs has focused on whether rich countries will financially support poor countries developing cleanly rather than following the West along the "fossil detour". It turns out developing countries are taking the clean route *despite* rich countries' lack of support.

I'll keep posting here -- I still love this platform and community, but wanted a place for longer form thoughts and one where I could reach people in my life not on Bluesky (gasp). If you subscribe you may also get some bonus commentary on trends in data and AI.

To be clear, this "High-warming" scenario is where we're headed under our current emissions trajectory. Climate action is often presented as too expensive. But what's actually expensive is huge stock market losses and people losing their retirements. www.ortecfinance.com/en/about-ort...

ortecfinance.comPension funds face dual headwinds of shrinking growth and rising inflation amidst climate changeA failed low-carbon transition could cut global pension fund returns by 33% by 2050 if climate change follows its current trajectory.
Max Dugan-Knight@maxduganknight.bsky.social

It's always refreshing to read analysis of a real risk that few are talking about. A new report from Ortec is more clear-eyed than most about institutional investors' dangerous exposure to climate risk. "A failed low-carbon transition could wipe 33% off pension fund returns worldwide by 2050".

It's always refreshing to read analysis of a real risk that few are talking about. A new report from Ortec is more clear-eyed than most about institutional investors' dangerous exposure to climate risk. "A failed low-carbon transition could wipe 33% off pension fund returns worldwide by 2050".

Insurers have the most advanced modeling capabilities, the most up to date data, they are extremely financially motivated to accurately price risk, and as of this year in California they are allowed to use forward-looking predictive models (CAT models) to assess future wildfire risk.

As I say in the article: "If insurance companies are worried, we should all be worried.โ€ The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.

Letโ€™s ignore all of the data on increasing wildfire risk due to climate change and just look at insurersโ€™ actions. Our June report found that home insurers in California are raising prices and abandoning homeowners in the highest risk wildfire zip codes. www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...

deepskyclimate.comInsurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous LevelsThe home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.

To be clear, the author Lauren Edmonds does a terrific job laying out the positions and making a complex topic clear. The different viewpoints are part of what make it a great article. And the other sources quoted come at this from a very different angle from me and have different backgrounds.

This confusion is part of why the obsession with global average temperature bothers me. Climate change is operating at the extreme ends of the distribution (temperature, precipitation, etc.) If you just look at the average youโ€™re missing the biggest impacts.

Daniel Swain@weatherwest.bsky.social

The discourse surrounding precipitation changes in a warming climate (both public discussion and even scientific one at times) is complicated by widespread conflation of changes in averages vs extremes (and also actual vs *potential* evaporation/evaporative demand). [Thread]

Hot and dry conditions have pushed risk to new levels and new parts of Canada ๐Ÿฅต I'm particularly worried about worsening conditions in more densely populated areas like southern parts of BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

What hundreds of millions have experienced even if they live nowhere near these fires is the smoke ๐Ÿ’จ Smoky air has real health effects. It also hints at a vicious cycle where climate change causes wildfires, and wildfires then emit enormous quantities of CO2 which contribute to climate change.

Pleased to see Deep Sky Research cited in this great article on an under-reported topic ๐ŸŒฝ๐Ÿ“‰ โ€œWeโ€™re losing 120 calories per person, per day, for every degree of global warming.โ€ www.forbes.com/sites/felici...

forbes.comThe Crash No One Sees Coming: Food System FailureClimate-driven food shocks pose a growing risk to global markets. As yields fall and insurance retreats, the next financial crash may start in the fields.

This is one of those slow-moving trends with many input variables that's hard to directly attribute to climate change. If we struggle to connect deadly storms and flooding with climate change, helping the public understand how climate change is impacting food security will not be easy.

The deadly flooding in Texas this week makes the article's message even more important. Climate change is causing extreme weather events to strike more and more often. This is not an abstract, confusing climate science-y concept -- it is claiming lives today.

We're all getting used to warmer temperatures ๐Ÿ“ˆ In the UK you hear a lot about the heat wave of 1976 but those temps would not have been out of the ordinary today. I'm quoted in this article which takes a broader view: uk.news.yahoo.com/heatwave-197...

uk.news.yahoo.comHow the infamous heatwave of 1976 compares to temperatures these daysNearly 50 years ago, Britons suffered in a stifling drought that lasted weeks - but how do those temperatures stand up to today's?

Thanks @climateeconomics.bsky.social! ๐Ÿ”ฅ Only saw this now.

Climate Risk Economics@climateeconomics.bsky.social

New analysis by Deep Sky shows insurance companies are abandoning US homeowners in the highest-risk areas, with over 150,000 households now uninsured in Californiaโ€™s most fire-prone regions alone... apnews.com/press-releas...

When spring Fire Weather Index anomaly values get up that high it indicates extreme underlying risk going into peak fire months. High temps and winds will come along at some point so fires like these become inevitable. Over 80k acres burned and very little containment so far.

1. This chart is awesome. 2. This conclusion is terrifying: There is around half a degree of warming today that is [still] โ€œhiddenโ€ by aerosols.

Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com

Human-caused emissions of aerosols โ€“ tiny, lightโ€‘scattering particles produced mainly by burning fossil fuels โ€“ have long acted as an invisible brake on global warming. This is largely because they absorb or reflect incoming sunlight and influence the formation and brightness of clouds.

Update: bill signed! In the sea of horrifying news out there (to which I definitely contribute) it's nice to see an actual policy win for people and healthcare. Thanks @warren.senate.gov for supporting this. bsky.app/profile/warr...

Max Dugan-Knight@maxduganknight.bsky.social

This is off topic but my little brother is fighting to stop private equity companies from gutting healthcare in Oregon. He's Rep Ben Bowman's Legislative Director. And they're winning! @tinakotek.bsky.social just needs to do the right thing ๐Ÿ‘€ www.wsj.com/articles/ore...

New Deep Sky Research report out today: "Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels" Insurance companies are abandoning homeowners in high risk wildfire areas ๐Ÿš๏ธ And fire risk in 2025 poses serious threat ๐Ÿ”ฅ Some findings in thread ๐Ÿงต www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...

deepskyclimate.comInsurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous LevelsThe home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.
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New Deep Sky Research report out today: "Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels" Insurance companies are abandoning homeowners in high risk wildfire areas ๐Ÿš๏ธ And fire risk in 2025 poses serious threat ๐Ÿ”ฅ Some findings in thread ๐Ÿงต www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...

deepskyclimate.comInsurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous LevelsThe home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.
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Canada also faces elevated risk across Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba. Manitoba fires have already evacuated thousands, killed 2, and have filled our air with dangerous levels of smoke. These underlying risk conditions show this is only the start.

New Deep Sky Research report out today: "Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels" Insurance companies are abandoning homeowners in high risk wildfire areas ๐Ÿš๏ธ And fire risk in 2025 poses serious threat ๐Ÿ”ฅ Some findings in thread ๐Ÿงต www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...

deepskyclimate.comInsurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous LevelsThe home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.
View full thread

New Deep Sky Research report out today: "Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels" Insurance companies are abandoning homeowners in high risk wildfire areas ๐Ÿš๏ธ And fire risk in 2025 poses serious threat ๐Ÿ”ฅ Some findings in thread ๐Ÿงต www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...

deepskyclimate.comInsurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous LevelsThe home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.

Working on a wildfire report right now and this smoke concentration data explains the haziness out my window ๐Ÿ’จ Smoky conditions are going to be hanging around for a while. Wildfire report coming soon ๐Ÿ‘€