Matthew Barnfield

Matthew Barnfield

@mbarnfield.bsky.social

matthewbarnfield.co.uk

1K followers779 following192 posts

Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

Just as Net Zero returns to the headlines in light of the decision to approve Jackdaw, I'm excited to speak this afternoon @sotonpolitics.bsky.social about why a popularly endorsed strategy to boost public support for policy action on climate change can't be as effective as its proponents make out.

Politics at Southampton@sotonpolitics.bsky.social

We're excited to have @mbarnfield.bsky.social presenting work in our departmental seminar today on 'Why communicating consensus on climate change probably doesn’t increase support for climate action'. For some context, see his post outlining the evidence: bsky.app/profile/mbar...

Matthew Barnfield reposted

Politics at Southampton
@sotonpolitics.bsky.social

We're excited to have @mbarnfield.bsky.social presenting work in our departmental seminar today on 'Why communicating consensus on climate change probably doesn’t increase support for climate action'. For some context, see his post outlining the evidence: bsky.app/profile/mbar...

Matthew Barnfield@mbarnfield.bsky.social

I just published something on my Substack about one reason, among many, why I don't think communicating public consensus on climate change is anything like as powerful a climate policy tool as people make it out to be. open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...

open.substack.comClimate consensus communication probably isn't a gamechangerWhy I don't think the best available evidence supports the story that is being told about it
Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

Phil's overview of our findings (for more, see: www.qmul.ac.uk/news/latest-...) sets up a nice discussion of the sources of short-termism, the challenge it poses for Andy Burnham, and the Finnish model 🇫🇮

qmul.ac.ukUK public more likely to see politics as short-termist than people in other European countries, study finds
Philip Cowley@philipjcowley.bsky.social

Me, on the Westminster Hour (from 35:36), talking about research with @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social on voters views of the long-term - and how Brits think our politics is particularly short-termist. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

bbc.co.ukWestminster Hour - What will the government decide on North Sea drilling? - BBC SoundsThe government's long-awaited decision on North Sea oil and gas drilling approaches.
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Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

But what even are the short and long term? Do these terms and their linguistic equivalents hold a consistent meaning? Broadly, yes. Short-term policy outcomes are expected within about 2-5 years, long-term 5-10 years. It just depends which policy area you're talking about.

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Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

So who’s responsible? Whether you think politics is short-termist or long-termist, you typically think that’s due to politicians, not voters. But people are much more inclined to think that voters are responsible for short-termism than for long-termism.

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Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

That pattern holds among supporters of all the main parties—whether they voted Labour, Reform, Conservative, Green or Lib Dem in 2024. Elsewhere in Europe, views differ by vote choice, with some evidence of an association with supporting populist parties.

Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

In all other countries we looked at, the overall pattern was reversed. People across five European countries are more likely to think their politics is focused on the long term than the short term.

Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

Here in the UK, we’ve become used to hearing about how our politics is too short-termist. And we find that about two in five British voters believe British politics is focused on the short term, far more than in France, Germany, Italy, Spain or Poland.

Matthew Barnfield reposted

Marta Miori
@martamiori.bsky.social

New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.

Financial Times@financialtimes.com

Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast ft.trib.al/zY08hha | opinion

ft.trib.alIs the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fastThe battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two

Matthew Barnfield reposted

Tim Bale
@timbale.bsky.social

My review of “Sunak at 10: The Last Conservative Prime Minister” (in this month’s Literary Review - highly recommend if you love books).

Matthew Barnfield reposted

Karl Pike
@karlpike.bsky.social

I have a short essay in this relaunched Progressive Review from @ippr.org, called ‘A Liberalism of Public Things’. Open access link below: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

onlinelibrary.wiley.comA Liberalism of Public ThingsThe social democratic ideological tradition - including the liberalism within it - should be described more accurately and defended. Liberalism within social democracy is the liberalism of public thi...
Institute for Public Policy Research@ippr.org

📣 Today, we’re relaunching IPPR’s journal of politics, ideas and public policy, Progressive Review. A new Substack, a new look, a new editorial team, and lots of new content. Sign up here 👇 buff.ly/Q7HpiEi

Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

Jason very nicely summarises our @electoralstudies.bsky.social paper showing that partisan gaps in coalition expectations shrink, but do not entirely disappear, after an election result reduces uncertainty about possible coalition formation. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Jason Reifler@jasonreifler.bsky.social

Alas, I have no expertise to share on Swedish coalition bargaining. But, I can share an article that focuses on a potentially related topic -- the extent to which election results affect perceptions of likely coalitions (using the 2021 German election). www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.comsciencedirect.com
Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

So the donor is "overseas" if they are currently registered as an overseas voter OR they have *at any point* since Jan 2025 been not resident in the UK? Not sure how resident in the UK is defined there. So are the interpretations here wrong?: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.comReform declines to say if £72m donors returned to UK within 12-month limitRichard Tice says contributions are legally compliant after author of review into overseas donations says rules will be applied retrospectively
Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

'Burnham’s deeper ambitions cannot be delivered on a three-year electoral timescale.' The public agree with @robertshrimsley.bsky.social 's analysis (giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...) 👇 bsky.app/profile/mbar...

Matthew Barnfield@mbarnfield.bsky.social

Will Andy Burnham run out of time? More detail (illustrated) on my polling covered here by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social. The survey was in the field on 31 July, at the end of Burnham's initial policy "bonanza"...

Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

As YouGov's excellent report on perceptions of public opinion makes no mention of climate change, I wrote up some relevant findings from a survey YouGov ran for me, in which I measured support and perceived support for net zero: drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-b...

drmatthewbarnfield.substack.comHow many Britons think the public shares their view on net zero?An environmental addendum to YouGov’s ‘Perceived Majority’ report
YouGov@yougov.co.uk

Reform UK and Tory voters are much more likely than others to think their own views are broadly in line with those of the wider public - but are they right? Reform: 75% say similar Con: 71% Lib Dem: 44% Labour: 42% Green: 38% yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

What I think it the most interesting part: at least *three quarters* of those who oppose net zero think that a minority of the public is in favour of it; only 4% of them think it has majority support. In reality ~60%+ of Britons support net zero.

Matthew Barnfield reposted

Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social

More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll: Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats. This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...

standard.co.ukReform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour
Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

Seems worth noting that the maximum PCN for fly-tipping was already raised to £5000 in July (www.gov.uk/government/n...).

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu

Andy Burnham is celebrating one month in Downing Street ... at a waste site. It's a bad day to be a fly-tipper as the new PM unveils a crackdown. But will it be enough to bin his critics? More in London Playbook 👇

politico.euNewsletters – POLITICOGet the latest news and analysis on European politics and policy delivered straight to your inbox.
Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

Andy Burnham is setting out to convince the public that ending rough sleeping is possible. He needs to: despite wide acceptance in commentary at the time of its announcement as being a feasible goal, voters think he is less likely to fulfil this pledge than any other – as I found in my polling 👇🏻

Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

FWIW, in a survey I ran recently, 75% of people thought the next election would take place in 2029 and not sooner. Labour voters more inclined to believe Burnham that 'there is no early election': 86%. Reform voters less inclined to believe him: 63%.

Lucy Fisher@lucyfisher.ft.com

Why Andy Burnham could be tempted by an early election gamble My Inside Politics column today www.ft.com/content/c4c5...

ft.comWhy Andy Burnham could be tempted by an early election gambleA bold move to seek a fresh mandate seems underpriced to me, even though the risks are formidable
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Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social

Perhaps these don't meet the threshold of being "sophisticated" or "complicated" enough. But creators are using the platform to communicate ideas to which most viewers would otherwise not be exposed in their more "sophisticated" or "complicated" forms.

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