Michael Bauer

Michael Bauer

@michaeldbauer.bsky.social

Economist at San Francisco Fed. Macro-finance, monetary policy, climate finance. Husband and proud dad of two. From Hamburg (Moin!)

3.8K followers1.3K following70 posts

📢Tune in to "Fed President Double Header" livestream Friday Mar-27, 8:30am PT, at our annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference. First SF Fed President Daly with introductory remarks, then Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson with the keynote address. www.frbsf.org/news-and-med...

frbsf.orgRemarks from Anna Paulson, Philadelphia Fed President and CEO, at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference - San Francisco FedRemarks from Anna Paulson, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, at the 2026 Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

Here is the recording of the excellent virtual seminar by Adrien Auclert. Check it out, you'll get both a valuable primer on the HANK modeling approach *and* new contributions on firm and investment heterogeneity! Thank you Adrien, we all learned a lot! cepr.org/multimedia/v...

cepr.orgVirtual Seminar on Monetary Economics (VSME) - Session 6 with Adrien AuclertAdrien Auclert (Standard University and CEPR) will present the paper "New Keynesian Economics with Household and Firm Heterogeneity ". The Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics is a monthly online res...
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In our working paper "Financial Market Effects of FOMC Communication: Evidence from a New Event-Study Database" we describe the USMPD in detail and document new empirical results. For example, large policy surprises have made a comeback, and press conferences play a key role...

We also find that monetary policy has significant effects on market-based inflation and dividend expectations that are consistent with conventional transmission channels. Term structure responses peak at longer horizons, suggesting there are signals about the reaction function.

The USMPD contains market reactions to all official FOMC communication events since 1994, including statements, post-meeting press conferences and minutes releases. It also includes data and code for high-frequency monetary policy surprises.

Excellent VSME talk by Jordi Gali, who provided a new perspective on monetary policy rules based on his Keynes Lectures and discussion at Jackson Hole of Emi Nakamura's paper. He makes a compelling case for rules for long-term real rates. Video here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrbH...

youtube.comVirtual Seminar on Monetary Economics - Jordi Gali (CREI, UPF, BSE and CEPR)YouTube video by CEPR & VideoVox Economics

Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics A monthly series joint with the Center for Monetary Research at the SF Fed 6 Nov 17:00 CET Join us this week for a seminar with Jordi Galí presenting “Rethinking the New Keynesian Model (I): The Monetary Policy Block” cepr.org/events/event... #EconSky #EconConf

We launched the Center for Monetary Research about one year ago. The first year brought a flurry of activities, research, and new data&indicators. Special highlight: Adrien Auclert receiving the inaugural Janet Yellen Award! My blog post has a review and outlook: www.frbsf.org/research-and...

frbsf.orgThe Center for Monetary Research: First Year in Review - San Francisco FedTo mark the first year since the Center for Monetary Research’s launch, the San Francisco Fed reviews the Center’s research activities and events.

Very excited that our third monthly VSME is coming up this Thursday. We'll hear from Jordi Gali about monetary policy in the New Keynesian model. Please join us on Zoom at 11am Eastern / 5pm CET! Webinar registration here: cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics A monthly series joint with the Center for Monetary Research at the SF Fed 6 Nov 17:00 CET Join us this week for a seminar with Jordi Galí presenting “Rethinking the New Keynesian Model (I): The Monetary Policy Block” cepr.org/events/event... #EconSky #EconConf

We hope you had a nice summer, the Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics is now in session! Please join us this Thursday at 8am PT / 11am ET for our first seminar! Zoom webinar registration here: cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

The Virtual Seminars on Monetary Economics, hosted by CEPR & the San Francisco Fed start this week! Session 1: 4 Sept 17:00 CEST @ivanwerning.bsky.social @mit.edu Topic: Tariffs as Cost-Push Shocks: Implications for Optimal #MonetaryPolicy Sign up: cepr.org/events/event... #EconSky #EconConf

In a nutshell, the paper proposes a taxonomy for economic risks and uncertainties, reviews various measures and models available for quantitative assessments, and discusses ways how central banks can communicate uncertainty to the public. 2/3

Interested in top-notch research in monetary economics? Join us for this new online seminar series, co-hosted CEPR's Monetary Economics and Fluctuations program and our Center for Monetary Research! @ivanwerning.bsky.social will kick things off on Sep-4. Sign up: cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

New Virtual Seminar series on #MonetaryEconomics begins September 2025, joint with the Center for Monetary Research of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Monthly sessions explore central bank frameworks, policy design, and international dimensions. More: cepr.org/events/event... #EconSky

🚨Friendly reminder that Saturday, May 31 is the deadline to submit (a) papers to our fall macro-finance conference and (b) nominations for the new Janet Yellen Award for Monetary Research, both initiatives of our new Center for Monetary Research. Details are here: www.frbsf.org/news-and-med...

frbsf.orgCall for Papers: 2nd Annual Conference on Macro-Finance Research - San Francisco FedSubmissions due by May 31, 2025, for the 2nd Annual Conference on Macro-Finance Research, to be held in San Francisco on October 10, 2025.

🚀Stay ahead of the curve! If you're interested in events, new papers, and data updates of our Center for Monetary Research, you can sign up for the quarterly newsletter here: frbsf.org/subscription... #MonetaryPolicy #MacroFinance #CentralBanking #EconSky

frbsf.orgSubscrip­tions - San Francisco FedSubscribe to our mailing lists to learn more about what’s happening in the Twelfth District. Receive the latest news, information, research, and insights on

📢Call for Nominations📢 The SF Fed and its Center for Monetary Research are launching the new Janet Yellen Award! This award will be given annually to an exceptional early-career researcher who has made significant and policy-relevant contributions to macro-finance and/or monetary economics.

The nominee should have received their Ph.D. within the last ten years, but exceptions due to career breaks are possible. Please send nominations to CMR@sf.frb.org by May 31, 2025. Nominations should include a brief justification and the nominee’s CV. Self-nominations are accepted.

The SF Fed's Center for Monetary Research is hosting our 2nd Annual Macro-Finance Conference this fall. If you have a recent paper on the linkages between financial markets, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy, please submit by May 31! www.frbsf.org/news-and-med...

frbsf.orgCall for Papers: 2nd Annual Conference on Macro-Finance Research - San Francisco FedSubmissions due by May 31, 2025, for the 2nd Annual Conference on Macro-Finance Research, to be held in San Francisco on October 10, 2025.

Our Center for Monetary Research is cosponsoring a session at the 2025 CEBRA meeting. Do you have a recent working paper on international macro-finance/monetary issues? Then please submit to Session 14 of this CfP! Deadline is March 20. We look forward to your submissions! #CEBRA2025 #CFP #EconSky

#CallForPapers for the #CEBRA2025 Annual Meeting They invite high-quality research papers on central #banking, #monetarypolicy, financial stability and related topics. Hosted by: Boston Fed and the HBS Pricing Lab D^3 Deadline: 20 March More info: cebra-events.org/call-for-pap... #EconSky

Kristin Forbes distills lessons for monetary policy from her research and the recent experience of central banks, using Sun Tzu's eternal classic "The Art of War" as a framework. Ingenious! (And particularly close to my own martial artist heart.) cepr.org/publications...

cepr.orgDP19905 The Art of Monetary Policy: Lessons from Sun Tzu for Central BanksThe 2008 Global Financial Crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic forced central banks to innovate and develop a multifaceted set of new weapons that have substantially expanded their authority and reach. This lecture draws lessons for monetary policy from the last two, tumultuous decades by applying the principles of Sun Tzu, a Chinese philosopher and military strategist from the 6th century BC. Tzu proposed several key principles for success—tenets that also apply to monetary policy today: (1) planning in advance for the next battle; (2) accepting and adapting to the inevitability of powerful, external shocks; (3) establishing a strong tactical position; (4) developing a variety of weapons that can be combined for different situations and maneuvers; (5) maintaining flexibility so that you can quickly modify your strategy; and (6) considering the longer-term costs when evaluating the tradeoffs of different approaches. While the optimal strategy in both war and monetary policy is more of an “art” than a science, these principles provide insights on how central banks should deploy interest rates, balance sheets, emergency support programs, forward guidance, and macroprudential tools when battling the next crisis—as well as to build more resilient economies during more peaceful periods.

Submission deadline for our fixed income conference is this Friday, January 31. Our keynote speaker will be Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. If you have a new paper in this area, please consider submitting it!

Michael Bauer@michaeldbauer.bsky.social

🚨Call for Papers🚨 Together with the Bank of Canada and the Chicago Fed, we're organizing a Conference on #FixedIncome Research and Implications for #MonetaryPolicy on May 22-23, 2025, in San Francisco. Submissions due by January 31. More details: www.frbsf.org/news-and-med... #EconSky

On Thursday @glennrudebusch.bsky.social will present our new paper "Green stocks and monetary shocks: Evidence from Europe" in the Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics. Join us on Zoom at 11a ET! All details on the virtual seminar here: www.frbsf.org/news-and-med...

frbsf.orgVirtual Seminar on Climate Economics - San Francisco FedThe Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics is an online seminar series hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The seminar is open to everyone interested in research on the economics of cli...
Michael Bauer@michaeldbauer.bsky.social

🎈New Working Paper🎈with @ericoffner.bsky.social and @glennrudebusch.bsky.social Do higher interest rates hurt the green transition? Not so obvious! Evidence from equity markets in US and EU actually shows stronger effects of monetary policy on high-carbon, brown firms. #EconSky #Climate

Michael Bauer reposted

This looks like a super important paper. Need to dig into it, but from first read, it provides a conceptual justification for departing from rational expectations (besides the empirical evidence that the assumption doesn’t hold).

Ben Moll@benmoll.bsky.social

New paper: benjaminmoll.com/challenge/

🎈New Working Paper🎈with @ericoffner.bsky.social and @glennrudebusch.bsky.social Do higher interest rates hurt the green transition? Not so obvious! Evidence from equity markets in US and EU actually shows stronger effects of monetary policy on high-carbon, brown firms. #EconSky #Climate

David Wessel@davidmwessel.bsky.social

Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe. New from Michael Bauer, Eric Offner & Glenn Rudebusch. www.brookings.edu/articles/gre... Hutchins Center The Brookings Institution #EconSky

"If we don't feel stupid it means we are not really trying" Very encouraging quote from this inspiring article. The other two are also excellent! I'll add this piece of advice, which a friendly ultramarathoner once gave me: "Enjoy the highs, manage the lows!" #econsky

Science News@scinews.bsky.social

Three must read papers for PhD students. #scisky #PhD #science #research #academicsky 1. The importance of stupidity in scientific research Open Access journals.biologists.com/jcs/article/...

Just in case y'all are into financial economics, asset pricing, macro-finance, corporate finance, etc... this is a solid list of people in that space! Thanks Lisa! #EconSky

Lisa Kramer@lisakramer.com

I made a starter pack of academics doing finance research, including finance professors, financial economists, and other economists interested in finance go.bsky.app/944zQWd

🚨Call for Papers🚨 Together with the Bank of Canada and the Chicago Fed, we're organizing a Conference on #FixedIncome Research and Implications for #MonetaryPolicy on May 22-23, 2025, in San Francisco. Submissions due by January 31. More details: www.frbsf.org/news-and-med... #EconSky

frbsf.orgCall for Papers: Fixed Income Research and Implications for Monetary Policy - San Francisco FedSubmissions due by January 31, 2025 for the Fixed Income Research and Implications for Monetary Policy Conference

Michael Bauer reposted

I’ve updated this starter pack. Will keep doing so, and thanks everyone for reaching out!

Adam@adamshap.bsky.social

Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack go.bsky.app/GudXeoo Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you

Thank you Aaron for this very useful service! This place is so much more pleasant... And it looks like we've got critical mass!

Aaron Sojourner@aaronsojourner.org

For Bluesky-Curious Econ Lovers, a Quick Start guide to plugging into the economics community here. It aims to lower the costs & boost the benefits for folks to engage here. If it seems useful, please share it here & especially on X. 📉📈 #️⃣#️⃣ aaronsojourner.org/for-bluesky-...