Michael Gallagher

How Ireland Voted 2024 now available (in full colour printing) from all good bookshops and probably some bad ones too. Full of outstanding analysis and fascinating facts. 13 chapters, 6 Appendices, 33 Tables, 41 Figures, 19 pages of great photos.

From ‘Days of Blue Loyalty’ p. 26. The reason was simply that FG couldn’t find credible candidates in the other four constituencies (the source cited is John Whyte’s book Church and State in Modern Ireland). FG was rescued from possible oblivion by getting into government after 1948 election.

Thanks to @theresareidy.bsky.social, @fionamaybuckley.bsky.social and all at Dept of Government & Politics at @UCC.ie for immaculate organisation of 43rd annual conference of PSAI – programme packed with fascinating papers, and a bar of chocolate as an added sweetener.

Given that Man City’s owners are insistent that they did nothing wrong between 2009 and 2018, is there any reason to assume that their behaviour changed after 2018 (end date of the PL inquiry) and that they are not still behaving in the same manner as during the period covered by the investigation?

I wonder whether there's as much public appetite for the wall-to-wall budget coverage we'll get today & tomorrow as the media seems to assume, given that, as you say, we’ve pretty much heard it all already. As for a referendum on budget confidentiality …

In BiH, growing detachment among citizens from the consociational governing arrangements. As in Northern Ireland, continued debate as to whether these incentivise communal separation or are simply an unavoidable recognition of these – or possibly both.

Vincent Browne / Magill produced some excellent election books as well during the 1980s.

Not much doubt as to which team in England League One Maximilien Robespierre would be supporting this season …

David McCullagh launches Gary Murphy biog of Brian Cowan, Taoiseach 2008–11, soon to be in bestseller lists. Book quotes Tacitus on short-lived Roman Emperor Galba (Jun 68–Jan 69), and how he would have seemed eminently fit to rule, had he never ruled.

For the day that it is – a photo from 1997.

Implication is that if Saxony-Anhalt employed SMP (first-past-the-post), AfD would have won every single constituency (bar Halle, apparently) from 44% of votes. Something that might give impetus to calls for introduction of some form of PR in United Kingdom.

Interesting article. Past hopes in UK have foundered on catch-22 of, as Paul Mitchell puts it (Politics of Electoral Systems, 2008), when a party has the will to change the electoral system it lacks the power, & when it has the power it lacks the will. Seems this may be changing. Some more thoughts:

The motivations of those leading the charge that the emperor has no clothes should not be the prime determinant of our judgement as to whether the emperor really does have no clothes.

32 excellent volumes in the Geography Publications County History series overseen by Prof Willie Nolan, and one in particular is apparently flying off the shelves just now. Includes a chapter on the GAA by Arlene Crampsie (plus one on post-independence political history).

Disappointing performance from Argentina in WC final partly a consequence of gigantism of 48-team format: they had to play 8 games in 32 days in sweltering conditions with a day less to recover than Spain after semi-final, not surprising they looked exhausted by the end. 32-team format was better!

When 8 finals in a row display the same pattern, we have to infer that that’s not a coincidence. Fifa & Uefa really need to fix the two semi-finals for the same day in future.

Fascinating analysis as ever from SM & LK. Despite the online piece's headline, is there really any basis for inferring causality (in either direction)? When age and urban/rural are controlled for, how much variation does party support explain? Look forward to similar data for other sports!

World Cup 26 semi-finals were on Tues & Wed, so Spain have 5 days to recover before final, Argentina only 4. Does this confer an advantage on former? Possibly: over past 60 yrs pattern not strong, but last 7 Euros / WCs all won by the team that had the extra day to rest / prepare.

At every international competition where England make it to the later stages, qn is asked in Ireland (and probably Scotland and Wales too): ‘Should we not support England since they’re a close neighbour?’ Short answer: absolutely no obligation to do so. Longer answer:

The team that plays best in the early stages doesn't necessarily win the trophy. A slow start and gradual improvement tends to be a more effective approach.

Nigel Farage resignation in UK raises qn of whether any TD has ever resigned and then contested the resulting by-election – which would be unwise under PR-STV as median TD in 2024 won only 14% of first preference votes cast in their constituency. No is the answer. Two cases from 1920s come closest.

I thought Portugal played pretty well given that they chose to play with just 10 men for the entire match.

Hare coursing an archetypal (and rare) example of an issue where a 'free vote' would be appropriate. Not central to overall govt policy, no mention of issue in Prog for Govt or FF / FG manifestos so no qn of breaking any pledge to electorate. rte.ie/news/politics/2026/0630/1581157-hare-coursing/

After England vs DR Congo: it’s taken 3 weeks & 80 matches just to eliminate half of the 48 teams that started tournament back on 11 Jun. The need to play 8 matches in high temperatures in order to emerge as winners suggests the need for pacing; some (eg France?) may prove to have peaked too early

Posters for yesterday's by-election for Nova Scotia House of Assembly in newly-created French-speaking riding / constituency, won as expected by the Progressive Conservative candidate Claude Bourgeois ahead of Liberal Denis Cormier, both a long way ahead of NDP and Green candidates.

Ireland EC report doesn't recommend banning election posters – their merits outweigh demerits. Urges more consistent enforcement of current regs. Observes that electricity needed for online campaigning means this far from carbon-neutral as some believe. www.electoralcommission.ie/app/uploads/...

So, which of the teams placed third in their World Cup group will qualify for the round of 32? History suggests that 4 points will suffice, 2 points won’t, and 3 points might or might not depending on the team’s goal difference.

World Cup a quarter of the way through (26 matches completed out of 104). Only one 0–0 draw so far, average over 3 goals per game, but nothing especially memorable yet. France vs Sénégal the best match thus far. Jury definitely out on whether inflation to 48 teams is justified.

Academic analyses of the 2018 referendum make no mention of the 3-day wait period as a salient factor in voters’ decision-making. That, plus the decisive (66–34) nature of the outcome in 2018, strongly suggest there's no breach of faith with the electorate in now dropping that requirement.

Constituency configuration an issue that won’t go away. 3-seat consts not really compatible with principle of proportional representation. A move to 4-, 5- and 6-seat consts would be step in right direction; ultimately, fixing size of both Dail (eg at 180 seats) & const config the best approach.

Given the day that’s in it, 40 years on: Celso Borges surely the most capped player ever to play in the Estadio Riazor (over 160 caps for Costa Rica). He used to weave labyrinthine patterns in midfield.

Good review by Yvonne Galligan of Eoin O'Malley's bestseller Charlie vs Garret in DRB. A tangential point: the phrase ‘would be like turkeys voting for christmas’ was first coined not by TD Alice Glenn in 1986 but by a Cornish MP in 1977 & used by UK PM James Callaghan in 1979. www.drb.ie

V unusual for a govt party candidate to win a by-election when vacancy was caused by departure of an opposition TD, as Seán Kyne (FG) has done in Galway W today. Prior to today, previous was Oct 2011 (Patrick Nulty in Dublin W), & before that June 1976 (Brendan Halligan in Dublin SW), both Labour.

It was always difficult to see how Daniel Ennis of Social Democrats could possibly NOT win the Dublin Central by-election. If a Condorcet winner makes it through to the final count, ie is one of the top two at the final stage, then by definition he/she cannot be beaten.

How do Irish parties line up on left–right spectrum? Attached is from Chapter 5 (by Gail McElroy & Stefan Müller) in the book How Ireland Voted 2024 (Palgrave). Scores are based on analysis of manifestos at Nov 2024 election, and authors discuss in particular the surprising placement of Green Party.

By-elections 22 May: Analysis of transfers at 2024 election in How Ireland Voted 2024 shows that ‘soft left’ (Soc Dems / Labour / Greens) attract transfers both from FF & FG, who prefer them (esp Labour) to SF & other left, and from SF & other left, who prefer them (esp Soc Dems) to FF & FG.

Of the 137 winners of contested Dáil by-elections, 11 have started with first preference vote below 25%. Only one below 20%: current Ind Ireland TD Michael Fitzmaurice was elected having received 18.7% of first prefs in Roscommon–South Leitrim S 2014. Maybe this record could be challenged on 22 May?

By-election 22 May in Galway West: not clear that there is a Condorcet winner here, and, even if there is, he or she might not win enough first preferences to remain in the count till final stage. Several plausible contenders to win the seat; could be a long day going through the counts on Sat 23rd.

By-election 22 May in Dublin Central: Daniel Ennis (Social Dems) looks like a Condorcet winner, ie would defeat any other candidate in a head-to-head. So provided that (as expected) he isn’t eliminated before the final stage, he can be expected to take the seat.

Very informative – and topical given two upcoming 22 May by-elections – article on Irish by-elections by UCD’s Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social on RTÉ Brainstorm: rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2026/0426/1569745-bye-elections-through-the-years-analysis/

Writs for 22 May by-elections finally moved. In 2024, Galway West was exceptionally fragmented, no party or ind won even 19% of vote, effective N parties 8.2. In Dublin Central, only SF (23.3%) exceeded 20% votes. Winning cands will have low % of first prefs, so transfers will determine outcomes.

Of the 138 by-election outcomes, the first 50 took place 1923–1949, the next 50 1952–76. Only 38 so far in the 50 years since then, mainly because it's now much rarer for TDs to die in office. 4th Dáil (1923–27) saw 21 seats filled through by-elections, by far the largest number of any Dáil.

Of the 138 TDs elected at the 136 Dáil by-elections (two by-elections in 1925 each returned two TDs), nine (so far) have gone on to become a party leader, and a further two party leaders were first elected at Westminster by-elections in the summer of 1917.

Irish Labour Party @labour.ie has won 10 of the 136 by-elections to have taken place since the foundation of the independent Irish state. Its first success, exactly 100 years ago today (18 Feb 1926), came in Dublin County, when future party leader William Norton was elected.

Gail McElroy and Theresa Reidy bring expertise to discussion of How Ireland Voted 2024 and what the book tells us about the current state of Irish politics in a recent Irish Times podcast @irishtimes.com: irishtimes.com/podcasts/inside-politics/irish-politics-shifted-left-why/

Concerns about stocks of How Ireland Voted 2024 running low have been allayed, temporarily at least, as Hodges Figgis on Dawson St Dublin 2 have plenty of copies at the moment.

In Japan election 8 Feb 2026, LDP seems to have won 43% votes, 68% seats. Further evidence that the mixed-member majoritarian electoral system (used also in Andorra, South Korea, Lithuania, Mexico, Monaco, Senegal, Seychelles, Taiwan) can produce highly disproportional outcomes.

Two Dáil vacancies arose in Nov 2025, yet Taoiseach states neither by-election to be held before May 2026. Unfortunately, the court-directed maximum of 6 months seems now to be regarded as an acceptable norm: www.rte.ie/news/politic...

In UK, much attention on Gorton&D by-election; MP resigned seat 23 Jan, by-eln 26 Feb, 34 days later. No reason why by-elns in Ireland shouldn’t be held as promptly; 6 months lacuna allowed by courts far too long, & anyway there's no bar on moving the writ sooner. bbc.com/news/articles/crkrpgvkd0no

Some high quality football action, and a good book to read during half-time.

Prof Theresa Reidy of UCC, co-editor of How Ireland Voted 2024, discusses the book, incl some discussion re choice of contributors, with David McCullagh on RTE Radio 1 22 Jan 26: rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22577527/