Michael R Strain

10h

"It cannot be stated often enough or vociferously enough: the Trump Administration is helping Russia to conquer Ukraine. The United States of America has taken the side of an aggressor against its innocent victim." By my AEI colleague @kschake.bsky.social. www.aei.org/foreign-and-...

aei.orgaei.org

Michael R Strain reposted

Stan Veuger

@stanveuger.bsky.social

9 Sept

I organized an economist amicus brief in support of affirmance of the Court of International Trade's ruling in Oregon v. Trump and Burlap and Barrel v. Donald J. Trump that the administration exceeded its authority when it imposed 10% worldwide tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

I have read a bunch of the replies to @justinwolfers.bsky.social's post, and I want to reaffirm that Justin's argument is deeply correct --- morally, civically, and empirically. Thank you, Justin, for speaking out about this crucially important issue.

Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social

The best cure for ideological bias is find someone on the other side and go to lunch with them.⁣ ⁣ Sometimes we disagree about facts. Sometimes we disagree about values. Figuring out which is which is fun part. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/my-libertarian-friends-were-right

ft.comSocialists and Maga are both wrong about economic liberalismPeople are not puppets responding to the string pulls of market forces — free enterprise gives us agency

25 Aug

1/ People are not puppets responding to the string pulls of market forces. We have agency. My @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/02e1...

ft.comSocialists and Maga are both wrong about economic liberalismPeople are not puppets responding to the string pulls of market forces — free enterprise gives us agency

25 Aug

2/ Liberalism gives pride of place to liberty. But liberty is not the same as licence. To let your passions — or market incentives — determine your choices is to be enslaved. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/02e1...

Michael R Strain reposted

Claudia Sahm

@claudia-sahm.bsky.social

13 Aug

Alphabet soup of the economy? My take on C vs K, and @michaelrstrain.bsky.social makes great points, too. www.npr.org/2026/08/13/n...

foreignaffairs.comWhy We Should FightAnd where Trump went wrong.

10 Aug

"The Powell doctrine remains the best way for American presidents to decide why and how to go to war, in the Middle East and elsewhere. And even in Iran, it is not too late for Powell’s precepts to help avert disaster." Important essay by my colleague @kschake.bsky.social. #policysky #econsky

ft.comOn America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people

🧵 While you’re celebrating the 250th anniversary of the American Declaration of Independence this weekend, spare a thought for Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, which reached the same milestone this year. My @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...

ft.comOn America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people

3/ Yet in the US today, commitment to them is under direct assault — from nationalist-populists on the right and socialist-populists on the left. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...

ft.comOn America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people

Fin/ My thoughts turn to the tricentennial, 50 years from now. Will America reach that birthday with those commitments intact? #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...

ft.comOn America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people

ft.comOn America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people

2/ The ideas animating those the Declaration and The Wealth of Nations — the importance of free people and free markets to human flourishing — have profoundly shaped America and the modern world. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...

Michael R Strain reposted

Andrew Hazlett

@andrewhazlett.bsky.social

29 June

Many invisible supports of our economic prosperity have been eaten away by this administration. I wonder if people can be made to understand the steep cost of all this random bullshittery?

Michael R Strain@michaelrstrain.bsky.social

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

Michael R Strain reposted

VoxEU @ CEPR

@voxeu.org

29 June

The Commissioner of the BLS was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. The resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. @nickbloom.bsky.social, E Groshen, D Hobbs, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

24 June

I'm proud to be on the board of this terrific project. #econsky #policysky

State of the Nation@stateofthenation.bsky.social

As America turns 250, how are we really doing? The first state-by-state report card is here. The State of the States is a bipartisan, data-driven progress report examining all 50 states and the District of Columbia across 31 measures. Learn more: stateofnation.org/sots/

ft.comSooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debtThere is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

🧵In Washington, analysts and politicians alike seem increasingly resigned to the idea that the only way the government will engage in fiscal consolidation is in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...

ft.comSooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debtThere is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

5/ Of course, politics and policymaking have deteriorated since the 1990s. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...

ft.comSooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debtThere is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

Fin/ But I still think that the normal democratic process has a much better shot at leading to deficit reduction than most analysts and commentators seem to think, as I discuss in my latest @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...

ft.comSooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debtThere is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

ft.comSooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debtThere is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

3/ Many discount this possibility because the last truly successful effort to reduce the deficit occurred as long ago as 1993, when the political environment was much more amenable to productive compromise. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...

ft.comSooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debtThere is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

4/ Commentators contrast this success with the failure of the $4T “grand bargain” deficit-reduction effort in 2011, led by President Obama and Speaker Boehner. They argue that the rise of more adversarial and performative politics is to blame. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...

ft.comSooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debtThere is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

ft.comSooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debtThere is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

2/ But I am more optimistic that the normal democratic process could yet lead to deficit reduction. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...

Michael R Strain reposted

Aaron Sojourner

@aaronsojourner.org

4 June

Replying to @aaronsojourner.org

How much value does BLs create? bsky.app/profile/mich...

Michael R Strain@michaelrstrain.bsky.social

Michael R Strain reposted

A Reader of the FT

@a-reader-ft.bsky.social

18 May

How can Trump turn things around on inflation?—Crucially, Trump should also turn his attention away from distractions like building a White House ballroom and renovating the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool and… www.ft.com/content/0a86... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

ft.comHow can Trump turn things around on inflation?Most of the culpability rests with the Fed and the Biden government but voters will hold the president accountable

Michael R Strain reposted

Tomorrow’s Affairs

@tmrwsaffairs.bsky.social

13 May

We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it - By @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tomorrowsaffairs.com/populists-wr... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #Tax

tomorrowsaffairs.comPopulists wrong to call for targeted taxes on the ultra-wealthyWe should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it

11 May

My colleague @kschake.bsky.social: "Without bases in Europe, US power projection becomes much more difficult and costly. Troops stationed overseas are not a gift to allied countries; they are enablers of America’s global military power." www.aei.org/foreign-and-... #policysky

aei.orgaei.org

5/ Alternatively, trust in BLS raises GDP by at least one order of magnitude more than the agency’s budget, just through the channel of supporting investor confidence.

6/ Paper here: www.nber.org/papers/w35135

3/ Economic policy uncertainty spiked in the wake of the president’s efforts to undermine public trust in BLS data, as you would expect to see if trust in a crucial source of information about the economy had been eroded.

4/ Applying our baseline estimate of the impact of about $20 billion suggests that the marginal erosion in public trust in the quality and integrity of BLS data cost the nation about $25 for every $1 of direct government spending on the agency.

@opiniontoday.bsky.social

2/ On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, Commissioner of the BLS, alleging that she “faked the Jobs Numbers” and was “incompetent.” This event provides a rare opportunity to study something that is otherwise difficult to measure: the value of trustworthy official statistics.

Michael R Strain reposted

Opinion Today

nber.orgThe Value of Reliable StatisticsFounded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS budget — @nickbloom.bsky.social @ericagroshen.bsky.social Duncan Hobbs @michaelrstrain.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35135

project-syndicate.orgTrump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the FedMichael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.

🧵President Trump has three goals when it comes to the Federal Reserve, including having Kevin Warsh as chairman. But Mr. Trump’s own vindictiveness and lack of discipline are thwarting all three goals. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... #econsky

project-syndicate.orgTrump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the FedMichael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.

4/ Warsh will be a terrific Fed chairman, bringing many skills and attributes to the post. Much of his reform agenda is laudable and necessary. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #econsky

project-syndicate.orgTrump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the FedMichael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.

Fin/ But to ensure Warsh's timely confirmation, Republican senators must pressure Trump to drop the threats and the criminal investigation into Powell. They must convince the president to get out of his own way. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #econsky

project-syndicate.orgTrump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the FedMichael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.

2/ Traders on Polymarket think the odds of Warsh being confirmed by May 14 are a measly 2 percent. If that doesn't happen, then Powell will stay on as chairman pro tempore after his term expires on May 15. This is the opposite of what Trump wants. Trump has only himself to blame. #econsky

project-syndicate.orgTrump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the FedMichael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.

3/ Warsh's nomination hearing for Fed chairman is today. A main subject of the hearing will be Trump's scandalous decision to weaponize the threat of criminal prosecution against Powell in order to get the Fed to lower interest rates. #econsky www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

Michael R Strain reposted

A Reader of the FT

@a-reader-ft.bsky.social

13 Apr

Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity—Trumpism barely works for Trump — most Americans disapprove of his job performance, including on inflation and immigration, the issues crucial… www.ft.com/content/c8c4... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

ft.comTrumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravityMost of the things that make it distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last

10 Apr

Ultimately, most things that make Trumpism distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last because they are not a coherent whole that another politician could easily inherit. My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/c8c4... #econsky

Michael R Strain reposted

Stan Veuger

@stanveuger.bsky.social

9 Apr

I had the privilege of organizing economist amicus briefs in support of the parties challenging the administration’s most recent round of worldwide tariffs. The cases are Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump. and Oregon et al. v. Trump, both before the U.S. Court of International Trade.

project-syndicate.orgHow Much AI-Driven Productivity Growth Do We Want?Michael R. Strain argues that the benefits of substantial gains would outweigh the costs in advanced economies.

26 Mar

Economists have been discussing generative AI’s possible effects on productivity. But from a cultural and political perspective, it is useful to ask: How much productivity growth should society desire? My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a... #econsky

Michael R Strain reposted

A Reader of the FT

@a-reader-ft.bsky.social

16 Mar

An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology- What should the Fed do? On the one hand, increasing interest rates in a weakening economy could be damaging. At the same time, it is imperative — after… www.ft.com/content/b9fd... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

ft.comAn Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychologyBusiness and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too

ft.comAn Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychologyBusiness and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too

13 Mar

1/ The Fed should treat inflation psychology as fragile — which makes the current situation in the Middle East even more precarious. My @financialtimes.com column. www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky

ft.comAn Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychologyBusiness and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too

13 Mar

2/ If an energy price shock caused by the Iran war leads the public to worry that inflation is accelerating, then that concern could itself cause inflation to accelerate. And the public seems primed to worry about exactly that. www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky

ft.comAn Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychologyBusiness and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too

13 Mar

3/ A self-reinforcing inflationary spiral is a real concern. www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky

project-syndicate.orgChristians vs. America’s TalibanMichael R. Strain explains why any serious conservative should reject the post-liberal far right's push for theocratic government.

27 Feb

1/ With both the Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes & more genteel post-liberal commentators calling for their own religious views to be imposed on others, traditional conservatives and Christians must speak up. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c... #econsky

project-syndicate.orgChristians vs. America’s TalibanMichael R. Strain explains why any serious conservative should reject the post-liberal far right's push for theocratic government.

27 Feb

2/ The state has no business using coercion in matters of conscience, as the Catholic Church itself has long made clear. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c... #econsky