Midgard Finance

Midgard Finance

@midgardfinance.com

- Focusing on long term CAGR and ignoring short term volatility and noise ๐Ÿ“ˆ - European investor ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ - Nordic stocks ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฑ ๐ŸŒ midgardfinance.com

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๐Ÿ“Š #ratings ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $SPGI S&P Global: fees for rating new bonds and loans rose 1% in Q3 to $677m, on a strong Q3 2025 (+12%). Ratings revenue +2%, Indices +20%. Adjusted EPS +9% to $4.58, adjusted 2026 outlook raised. Capital IQ under review, separation possible. midgardfinance.com/companies/SPGI/

๐Ÿ’ป #semiconductors #EDA ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $CDNS Cadence's chip-design IP has about doubled since 2024: IP +24% in Q3, revenue +22% incl. Hexagon, record $8.2bn backlog, non-GAAP EPS outlook $8.40. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $SNPS Synopsys: IP +11% in its quarter to July, software jump from Ansys. midgardfinance.com/companies/CDNS/

๐Ÿค– #AI ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $ANT Anthropic's IPO filing: Q2 revenue $11.6bn, from $0.8bn a year ago, and a $974m GAAP operating profit, after Q1's $1.7bn loss. Compute cost fell from 177% of revenue to 48%. Q2's $66bn net loss is mostly convertible notes revalued as its valuation rose. midgardfinance.com/ai/

๐Ÿ“ˆ #earnings Q3 organic sales growth at 29 large European companies that reported last week: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Bollorรฉ +53.0% on fuel prices, then defence and mining, ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช $SAAB +30.6% and Sandvik +25.0%. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ $ABBN +14.0%, ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท $SAF +13.4%, $OR +7.2%, ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ $NESN +4.0%. ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท $KER -1.0% is last. midgardfinance.com/earnings/

๐Ÿ“… #earnings Next week's results: ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง $HSBA and ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ $NOVN on Tuesday. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $MSFT and $GOOGL after Wednesday's close, $AMZN after Thursday's. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง $SHEL, ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท $TTE and ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $LLY before Thursday's open. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง $AZN and ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Sanofi on Friday. All 599 reports, by day: midgardfinance.com/calendar/

๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ #oil ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น $ENI Eni: Q3 adjusted operating profit โ‚ฌ5,994m, double Q3 2025's โ‚ฌ2,996m. ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ E&P (oil & gas) โ‚ฌ4,631m (+76%): Brent $97 (+40%), output +4%. ๐Ÿญ Refining & chemicals โ‚ฌ472m, from a โ‚ฌ53m loss. Special dividend โ‚ฌ0.46 a share; buyback up to โ‚ฌ3.8bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/ENI.MI/

๐Ÿ’ณ #payments ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $AXP American Express: card spending growth eased to +8% in Q3 from +9%, in all three segments. US consumer +9% from +11%, small business and corporate +3% from +5%, international +11% at constant FX, the lowest in 14 quarters. Guidance raised. midgardfinance.com/companies/AXP/

๐Ÿš€ #space #AI ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $SPCX One customer accounted for 34.5% of SpaceX's Q3 revenue, up from 19.5% in Q2: about $5.0bn by our calculation, all in the $7.6bn Super Intelligence (AI) segment. SpaceX does not name it. midgardfinance.com/research/spacex/

Midgard Finance@midgardfinance.com

๐Ÿš€ #space #AI ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $SPCX SpaceX made $14.6bn of revenue in Q3, up 161% on a year earlier. Its AI segment made $7.6bn, from $0.8bn; Cursor, bought in August, added $0.6bn. Starlink $5.2bn, from $3.1bn. Operating profit $2.8bn, from a $0.3bn loss. midgardfinance.com/research/spacex/

๐Ÿ”ฉ #industrials ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช $LIFCO Lifco: Q3 EBITA +10.7% to SEK 1,708m, organic sales only +1.6%. ๐Ÿญ Systems Solutions (contract manufacturing, infrastructure products) added 145m of the 165m. โš ๏ธ A customer worth ~5% of sales plans to buy outside Europe from 2027. midgardfinance.com/companies/LIFCO-B.ST/

โœˆ๏ธ #aerospace ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท $SAF Safran: Q3 revenue โ‚ฌ9,003m, +14.7%. ๐Ÿ”ง Propulsion flat on Q2 at โ‚ฌ4,628m; spare parts growth slowed to +17% in USD, from +29% in Q1. ๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Missile seekers and optronics lifted Equipment & Defense +15.7% organic. ๐Ÿ’บ Interiors +5.8% organic. midgardfinance.com/companies/SAF.PA/

๐ŸŽฐ #gambling ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช $EVO Evolution: Q3 revenue +3.7%. By where players are: North America +14%, LatAm +23%, Europe โˆ’5%. Profit โˆ’3.6%, operating margin 55.2% (58.5%). EPS +4.6% only because buybacks cut the share count 8%. Brazilian studio closed in October. midgardfinance.com/companies/EVO.ST/

๐Ÿ’„ #beauty ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท $OR L'Orรฉal: Q3 sales +7.2% like-for-like, +7.7% adjusted for IT timing. Dermatological Beauty (CeraVe, La Roche-Posay) +12.2%, a fourth double-digit quarter in a row after +30.6% in Q1 23 and +0.8% in Q3 24. Luxe +6.4%, its best since Q2 23. midgardfinance.com/companies/OR.PA/

โš™๏ธ #industrials ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช $ATCO Atlas Copco: Q3 operating profit +16%, adjusted +15%. ๐Ÿ’ป Vacuum (pumps for chip fabs) added 73% of the rise, ๐Ÿ—๏ธ Power (generators, pumps) 29%, ๐Ÿ”ง Industrial (assembly tools) 6%. ๐Ÿ’จ Compressor (factory air), the largest, fell SEK 40m. midgardfinance.com/companies/ATCO-A.ST/

๐Ÿšข #logistics ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ $KNIN Kuehne+Nagel kept 18.2% of Q3 gross profit as operating profit (13.5% a year earlier), with sea volume +4.5% and air +9.8%. ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ $DSV DSV, volumes about 3% lower, kept 31.1% (ex DKK 300m property gains), below its 35-42% before Schenker. midgardfinance.com/companies/KNIN.SW/

๐Ÿ‘œ #luxury ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท $RMS Hermรจs: Q3 sales +4.3% at constant currency, the slowest of the 19 quarters since 2022; leather goods +10.8%, Asia excl. Japan flat. ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท $MC LVMH +1% organic; its Fashion & Leather, ready-to-wear included, fell 5%, down in 8 of the last 9. midgardfinance.com/companies/RMS.PA/

Q1 2024 to Q3 2026, in francs: #Polivy +98%, #Phesgo +92%, #Xolair +71%, #Vabysmo +34%, #Hemlibra +21%, #Ocrevus +11%. Roche says patients are converting from #Perjeta to Phesgo: Perjeta fell from CHF 936m in Q1 2024 to 651m in Q3 2026.

Pharma sales in Japan grew 49% at constant rates in Q3, after 4% to 14% in the prior four quarters. Without Japan, Roche grew 6.6% in francs, not 8.1%. Roche puts Japan's nine months (+25%) mainly down to product supply to third parties and growing drugs, plus timing effects of a new ERP system.

๐Ÿ“Š #bonds ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania's ten-year government bonds yielded 6.7% in September, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland's 6.2% and ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary's 5.7%, each in its own currency. In the euro ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France paid most in September, 4.44%, ahead of ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy 4.36% and ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece 4.22%, though both owe more. midgardfinance.com/eu-yield-curve/

Midgard Finance@midgardfinance.com

๐Ÿ“Š #economy ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece's government owes 144% of GDP and ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy's 139%. ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France, at 118%, owes more than ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain or ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal. ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia owes 25%. midgardfinance.com/eu-debt/

๐Ÿ’ป #software ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช $SAP SAP: Q3 2026 non-IFRS EPS +19% to โ‚ฌ1.89. Our breakdown: revenue +โ‚ฌ0.21, margin +โ‚ฌ0.07, fewer shares +โ‚ฌ0.02. IFRS EPS +14% to โ‚ฌ1.96, with equity-security gains. Cloud backlog +26% at constant currency; cloud outlook now at the upper end. midgardfinance.com/companies/SAP.DE/

๐Ÿ“ˆ #bonds #France ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France's 10-year government bond yield rose to 5.01% on 21 October, its highest since 2002. Over ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany, France pays 159bp and ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy 117bp. France has never paid this much more than Italy since the euro began. midgardfinance.com/eu-yield-curve/

Midgard Finance@midgardfinance.com

๐Ÿ“Š #bonds ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France pays 78bp over Germany to borrow for 10 years. ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy pays 81bp. ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain pays 46bp, ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal 37bp. The old map of the euro area is gone. midgardfinance.com/eu-yield-curve/

๐Ÿ“ˆ #exchanges ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Deutsche Bรถrse: Q3 net revenue rose โ‚ฌ193m to โ‚ฌ1,633m. Interest-rate derivatives added โ‚ฌ59m (+48%), the most of any business, in a quarter when the ECB and Fed both raised rates. Earnings per share +20%. 2026 revenue guidance raised again. midgardfinance.com/companies/DB1.DE/

๐Ÿ“Š #economy ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece's government owes 144% of GDP and ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy's 139%. ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France, at 118%, owes more than ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium, ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain or ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal. ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia owes 25%. midgardfinance.com/eu-debt/

๐Ÿ“Š #AI #capex ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $ORCL and ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $CRWV earn the least on the AI build: 24% and 14% of the capex they have sunk since 2023 comes back as extra operating cash flow a year. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $META 49%, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $GOOGL 42%, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $MSFT 37%, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $AMZN 35%. The two borrowing to build earn least on it. midgardfinance.com/ai/

๐Ÿ“Š #AI #semiconductors ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ $TSM TSMC: high-performance computing, which includes AI accelerators, made up 68% of revenue in Q3 2026, up from 29% in Q1 2019. Smartphones fell from 47% to 21%. In those years, the operating margin doubled, from 29% to 59%. midgardfinance.com/companies/2330.TW/

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๐Ÿ“Š #AI #bonds ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $ORCL Oracle's bonds yield 2.2 percentage points more than US Treasuries, up from 0.9 a year ago. $CRWV CoreWeave's yield 10.4 more, up from 4.4 in April. $GOOGL Alphabet pays 0.3 over, as it did a year ago. $AMZN Amazon and $META Meta pay under a point. midgardfinance.com/ai/

Midgard Finance@midgardfinance.com

๐Ÿ“Š #AI #bonds ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $CRWV CoreWeave's net interest expense was $1.87bn in the 12 months to June, against an operating loss of $0.23bn. In 2024, $0.32bn of operating income nearly covered $0.36bn of interest. Its dollar bonds yield about 15%, on 9% to 9.75% coupons. midgardfinance.com/ai/

๐Ÿ“Š #AI #bonds ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $CRWV CoreWeave's net interest expense was $1.87bn in the 12 months to June, against an operating loss of $0.23bn. In 2024, $0.32bn of operating income nearly covered $0.36bn of interest. Its dollar bonds yield about 15%, on 9% to 9.75% coupons. midgardfinance.com/ai/

Midgard Finance@midgardfinance.com

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The gap between what the safest and the weaker US companies pay to borrow is 0.48 points. Near a 66-year low. $CRWV's own disclosed facilities: 8.12% to 13.29%. The average says calm. The individual borrower says otherwise. midgardfinance.com/ai-capex/ #CoreWeave #AICapex #leverage

โ˜๏ธ #cloud #AI Google Cloud ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $GOOGL earned a 36% operating margin in Q2 2026, up from 3% in Q3 2023. AWS ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $AMZN earned 39%, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $MSFT 41%. Google Cloud's revenue grew 82%, and Q2 was the first quarter with sales of TPU systems. midgardfinance.com/research/cloud/

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