๐ #ratings ๐บ๐ธ $SPGI S&P Global: fees for rating new bonds and loans rose 1% in Q3 to $677m, on a strong Q3 2025 (+12%). Ratings revenue +2%, Indices +20%. Adjusted EPS +9% to $4.58, adjusted 2026 outlook raised. Capital IQ under review, separation possible. midgardfinance.com/companies/SPGI/
Midgard Finance
Midgard Finance
@midgardfinance.com
- Focusing on long term CAGR and ignoring short term volatility and noise ๐ - European investor ๐ช๐บ - Nordic stocks ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ด๐ธ๐ช๐ซ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ซ๐ด๐ฌ๐ฑ ๐ midgardfinance.com
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Moody's, S&P Global's main rival, slowed as well: its ratings transaction revenue, mostly fees for rating new debt, fell 5% in Q3 after +34% in Q2, against +1% after +25% at S&P Global. Both faced a strong Q3 2025 (+14% at Moody's, +12% at S&P Global). midgardfinance.com/companies/MCO/
๐ป #semiconductors #EDA ๐บ๐ธ $CDNS Cadence's chip-design IP has about doubled since 2024: IP +24% in Q3, revenue +22% incl. Hexagon, record $8.2bn backlog, non-GAAP EPS outlook $8.40. ๐บ๐ธ $SNPS Synopsys: IP +11% in its quarter to July, software jump from Ansys. midgardfinance.com/companies/CDNS/
๐ #pharma ๐จ๐ญ $NOVN Novartis Q3: sales +4% as #Kisqali +37%, #Kesimpta +21% and #Cosentyx +9% outweighed #Entresto, โ38% on US generics. Core operating income +11%, with its full-year guidance raised; reported โ59% on a del-desiran impairment. midgardfinance.com/companies/NOVN.SW/
๐ #industrials ๐ธ๐ช $ASSA ASSA ABLOY: record Q3, EBIT margin excl. one-offs 17.4% (16.8%) on 4% organic growth. Americas led: organic +6%, margin 19.6% (18.5%). Asia Pacific the drag: organic โ1% on weak Greater China, margin 9.8% (10.2%). EPS +14%. midgardfinance.com/companies/ASSA-B.ST/
๐ค #AI ๐บ๐ธ $ANT Anthropic's IPO filing: Q2 revenue $11.6bn, from $0.8bn a year ago, and a $974m GAAP operating profit, after Q1's $1.7bn loss. Compute cost fell from 177% of revenue to 48%. Q2's $66bn net loss is mostly convertible notes revalued as its valuation rose. midgardfinance.com/ai/
๐ #earnings Q3 organic sales growth at 29 large European companies that reported last week: ๐ซ๐ท Bollorรฉ +53.0% on fuel prices, then defence and mining, ๐ธ๐ช $SAAB +30.6% and Sandvik +25.0%. ๐จ๐ญ $ABBN +14.0%, ๐ซ๐ท $SAF +13.4%, $OR +7.2%, ๐จ๐ญ $NESN +4.0%. ๐ซ๐ท $KER -1.0% is last. midgardfinance.com/earnings/
๐ #earnings Next week's results: ๐ฌ๐ง $HSBA and ๐จ๐ญ $NOVN on Tuesday. ๐บ๐ธ $MSFT and $GOOGL after Wednesday's close, $AMZN after Thursday's. ๐ฌ๐ง $SHEL, ๐ซ๐ท $TTE and ๐บ๐ธ $LLY before Thursday's open. ๐ฌ๐ง $AZN and ๐ซ๐ท Sanofi on Friday. All 599 reports, by day: midgardfinance.com/calendar/
๐ข๏ธ #oil ๐ฎ๐น $ENI Eni: Q3 adjusted operating profit โฌ5,994m, double Q3 2025's โฌ2,996m. ๐ข๏ธ E&P (oil & gas) โฌ4,631m (+76%): Brent $97 (+40%), output +4%. ๐ญ Refining & chemicals โฌ472m, from a โฌ53m loss. Special dividend โฌ0.46 a share; buyback up to โฌ3.8bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/ENI.MI/
๐ณ #payments ๐บ๐ธ $AXP American Express: card spending growth eased to +8% in Q3 from +9%, in all three segments. US consumer +9% from +11%, small business and corporate +3% from +5%, international +11% at constant FX, the lowest in 14 quarters. Guidance raised. midgardfinance.com/companies/AXP/
๐ #space #AI ๐บ๐ธ $SPCX One customer accounted for 34.5% of SpaceX's Q3 revenue, up from 19.5% in Q2: about $5.0bn by our calculation, all in the $7.6bn Super Intelligence (AI) segment. SpaceX does not name it. midgardfinance.com/research/spacex/
๐ #space #AI ๐บ๐ธ $SPCX SpaceX made $14.6bn of revenue in Q3, up 161% on a year earlier. Its AI segment made $7.6bn, from $0.8bn; Cursor, bought in August, added $0.6bn. Starlink $5.2bn, from $3.1bn. Operating profit $2.8bn, from a $0.3bn loss. midgardfinance.com/research/spacex/
๐ฉ #industrials ๐ธ๐ช $LIFCO Lifco: Q3 EBITA +10.7% to SEK 1,708m, organic sales only +1.6%. ๐ญ Systems Solutions (contract manufacturing, infrastructure products) added 145m of the 165m. โ ๏ธ A customer worth ~5% of sales plans to buy outside Europe from 2027. midgardfinance.com/companies/LIFCO-B.ST/
โ๏ธ #aerospace ๐ซ๐ท $SAF Safran: Q3 revenue โฌ9,003m, +14.7%. ๐ง Propulsion flat on Q2 at โฌ4,628m; spare parts growth slowed to +17% in USD, from +29% in Q1. ๐ก๏ธ Missile seekers and optronics lifted Equipment & Defense +15.7% organic. ๐บ Interiors +5.8% organic. midgardfinance.com/companies/SAF.PA/
๐ฐ #gambling ๐ธ๐ช $EVO Evolution: Q3 revenue +3.7%. By where players are: North America +14%, LatAm +23%, Europe โ5%. Profit โ3.6%, operating margin 55.2% (58.5%). EPS +4.6% only because buybacks cut the share count 8%. Brazilian studio closed in October. midgardfinance.com/companies/EVO.ST/
๐ฉ #industrials ๐ธ๐ช $LAGR Lagercrantz: July-September sales +22%: 12% organic, 9% acquired, 1% currency. Organic beat acquired for the first time in five quarters. EBITA margin 17.8% (17.9) after one-offs in Control. EPS +31%, helped by tax of 20% (24%). midgardfinance.com/companies/LAGR-B.ST/
๐ #beauty ๐ซ๐ท $OR L'Orรฉal: Q3 sales +7.2% like-for-like, +7.7% adjusted for IT timing. Dermatological Beauty (CeraVe, La Roche-Posay) +12.2%, a fourth double-digit quarter in a row after +30.6% in Q1 23 and +0.8% in Q3 24. Luxe +6.4%, its best since Q2 23. midgardfinance.com/companies/OR.PA/
โ๏ธ #industrials ๐ธ๐ช $ATCO Atlas Copco: Q3 operating profit +16%, adjusted +15%. ๐ป Vacuum (pumps for chip fabs) added 73% of the rise, ๐๏ธ Power (generators, pumps) 29%, ๐ง Industrial (assembly tools) 6%. ๐จ Compressor (factory air), the largest, fell SEK 40m. midgardfinance.com/companies/ATCO-A.ST/
๐ #information ๐ฌ๐ง $RELX RELX: nine-month underlying revenue +7%. Legal +10%, from 2% a year in 2016-19, on AI-enabled legal research, says RELX; STM +6%, from 2%; Risk around 8%; print excluded since 2025. Exhibitions +4% (Middle East), from +8% in 2025. midgardfinance.com/companies/REL.L/
๐ฉ #industrials ๐ธ๐ช $ADDT Addtech: July-September sales +8%: 5% acquired, 2% organic, 1% currency. Acquisitions added 3-13% a quarter since 2022; organic โ7% to +4% since mid-2023. EBITA margin 16.7% (15.5% a year ago), 15.8% ex a one-off of about SEK 55m. midgardfinance.com/companies/ADDT-B.ST/
๐ข #logistics ๐จ๐ญ $KNIN Kuehne+Nagel kept 18.2% of Q3 gross profit as operating profit (13.5% a year earlier), with sea volume +4.5% and air +9.8%. ๐ฉ๐ฐ $DSV DSV, volumes about 3% lower, kept 31.1% (ex DKK 300m property gains), below its 35-42% before Schenker. midgardfinance.com/companies/KNIN.SW/
๐ #luxury ๐ซ๐ท $RMS Hermรจs: Q3 sales +4.3% at constant currency, the slowest of the 19 quarters since 2022; leather goods +10.8%, Asia excl. Japan flat. ๐ซ๐ท $MC LVMH +1% organic; its Fashion & Leather, ready-to-wear included, fell 5%, down in 8 of the last 9. midgardfinance.com/companies/RMS.PA/
๐ #pharma ๐ณ๐ฑ $ARGX argenx: #Vyvgart sales were $1,721m in Q3, from $1,127m a year earlier and $21m in Q1 22. Operating profit turned positive in Q3 2024 and was $486m in Q3 ($494m in Q2), after about $150m of costs for buying Forte Biosciences. midgardfinance.com/companies/ARGX.BR/
๐ #pharma ๐จ๐ญ $RO Roche: Q3 sales rose CHF 1.2bn, +7% at constant exchange rates (+8% in francs). #Ocrevus, #Hemlibra, #Vabysmo, #Polivy and #Phesgo added 57%. 7 of its 20 biggest drugs fell CHF 261m. Japan, 6% of sales, grew 49% and gave CHF 278m of the rise. midgardfinance.com/companies/ROP.SW/
๐ #pharma ๐จ๐ญ $RO Roche: Q3 sales rose CHF 1.2bn, +7% at constant exchange rates (+8% in francs). #Ocrevus, #Hemlibra, #Vabysmo, #Polivy and #Phesgo added 57%. 7 of its 20 biggest drugs fell CHF 261m. Japan, 6% of sales, grew 49% and gave CHF 278m of the rise. midgardfinance.com/companies/ROP.SW/
๐ #bonds ๐ท๐ด Romania's ten-year government bonds yielded 6.7% in September, ๐ต๐ฑ Poland's 6.2% and ๐ญ๐บ Hungary's 5.7%, each in its own currency. In the euro ๐ซ๐ท France paid most in September, 4.44%, ahead of ๐ฎ๐น Italy 4.36% and ๐ฌ๐ท Greece 4.22%, though both owe more. midgardfinance.com/eu-yield-curve/
๐ #economy ๐ฌ๐ท Greece's government owes 144% of GDP and ๐ฎ๐น Italy's 139%. ๐ซ๐ท France, at 118%, owes more than ๐ง๐ช Belgium, ๐ช๐ธ Spain or ๐ต๐น Portugal. ๐ช๐ช Estonia owes 25%. midgardfinance.com/eu-debt/
โก #utilities ๐ช๐ธ $IBE Iberdrola: Nine-month adjusted net profit +9% to โฌ5,141m. Regulated networks +15% while generation and customers fell 2%; reported profit also holds the gain on the Mexico sale. midgardfinance.com/companies/IBE.MC/
๐ #ratings ๐บ๐ธ $MCO Moody's: Q3 GAAP EPS +18% to $4.24, but $0.55 of the rise is tax and other, including a $115m gain on divestitures. Adjusted EPS +6%. midgardfinance.com/companies/MCO/
๐ #financials ๐บ๐ธ $MSCI MSCI: Q3 diluted EPS +14% to $4.86: revenue growth added $0.54 and fewer shares $0.26. Adjusted EPS $5.11. Organic subscription run rate +8.7%. midgardfinance.com/companies/MSCI/
๐ป #software ๐ฉ๐ช $SAP SAP: Q3 2026 non-IFRS EPS +19% to โฌ1.89. Our breakdown: revenue +โฌ0.21, margin +โฌ0.07, fewer shares +โฌ0.02. IFRS EPS +14% to โฌ1.96, with equity-security gains. Cloud backlog +26% at constant currency; cloud outlook now at the upper end. midgardfinance.com/companies/SAP.DE/
SAP revenue +12% at constant currency, all of it from cloud: cloud +25%, while support, services and licences shrank. Cloud was lifted by catch-up revenue from customers returning from financial distress. midgardfinance.com/companies/SAP.DE/
๐ค #AI ๐บ๐ธ $META Meta: Q3 revenue +26%. Without one-offs, EPS +2% ($7.25 to $7.40), operating margin 40% to 35%. midgardfinance.com/companies/META/
Capex incl. leases $34.9bn exceeded operating cash flow, $32.8bn: the first negative free cash flow since 2012. No buybacks in 2026 so far. midgardfinance.com/companies/META/
๐ #EV #AI ๐บ๐ธ $TSLA Tesla: Q3 GAAP operating income down 56% to $718m on flat revenue. Car gross profit +$495m; R&D alone took more than twice that. GAAP EPS $0.22, non-GAAP $0.48, from $0.39 and $0.50. Capex doubled to $4.7bn; free cash flow $1.5bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/TSLA/
Also in Tesla's quarter: 1.74m active FSD subscriptions, up 67% in a year and +260k in Q3. Active means upfront purchases plus monthly subscriptions, free trials excluded. Tesla prints no FSD revenue, so this shows adoption, not profit. midgardfinance.com/companies/TSLA/
Cash, last four quarters: operating cash flow $18.7bn, up from $15.7bn a year earlier; capex $15.4bn, up from $8.9bn. Free cash flow fell to $3.3bn from $6.8bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/TSLA/
๐ฉบ #medtech ๐บ๐ธ $ISRG Intuitive Surgical: Q3 GAAP EPS โ24% to $1.49, after a $450 million litigation charge. Non-GAAP EPS $3.00, up from $2.40. Procedures +15%. midgardfinance.com/companies/ISRG/
๐ #logistics ๐ฉ๐ฐ $DSV DSV: Q3 earnings per share +39% to DKK 12.6, on gross profit up only 4%. Our breakdown: lower costs +1.2, property gains +0.5, tax and other +1.5. A year after Schenker, the payoff is in costs, not volume. midgardfinance.com/companies/DSV.CO/
๐ #bonds #France ๐ซ๐ท France's 10-year government bond yield rose to 5.01% on 21 October, its highest since 2002. Over ๐ฉ๐ช Germany, France pays 159bp and ๐ฎ๐น Italy 117bp. France has never paid this much more than Italy since the euro began. midgardfinance.com/eu-yield-curve/
๐ #bonds ๐ซ๐ท France pays 78bp over Germany to borrow for 10 years. ๐ฎ๐น Italy pays 81bp. ๐ช๐ธ Spain pays 46bp, ๐ต๐น Portugal 37bp. The old map of the euro area is gone. midgardfinance.com/eu-yield-curve/
๐ #exchanges ๐ฉ๐ช Deutsche Bรถrse: Q3 net revenue rose โฌ193m to โฌ1,633m. Interest-rate derivatives added โฌ59m (+48%), the most of any business, in a quarter when the ECB and Fed both raised rates. Earnings per share +20%. 2026 revenue guidance raised again. midgardfinance.com/companies/DB1.DE/
๐ #eyewear ๐ซ๐ท $EL EssilorLuxottica: Q3 revenue +7.2% at constant exchange rates. Asia-Pacific +15.7%, North America +4.7%; myopia management +24%. midgardfinance.com/companies/EL.PA/
๐บ #streaming ๐บ๐ธ $NFLX Netflix: earnings per share rose from $0.59 to $0.87 in Q3. By our breakdown, revenue growth added $0.08, a higher margin $0.15, tax and other $0.03, and buybacks $0.02. Netflix says the margin beat was mostly expense timing. midgardfinance.com/companies/NFLX/
๐ #space #AI ๐บ๐ธ $SPCX SpaceX made $14.6bn of revenue in Q3, up 161% on a year earlier. Its AI segment made $7.6bn, from $0.8bn; Cursor, bought in August, added $0.6bn. Starlink $5.2bn, from $3.1bn. Operating profit $2.8bn, from a $0.3bn loss. midgardfinance.com/research/spacex/
๐ #economy ๐ฌ๐ท Greece's government owes 144% of GDP and ๐ฎ๐น Italy's 139%. ๐ซ๐ท France, at 118%, owes more than ๐ง๐ช Belgium, ๐ช๐ธ Spain or ๐ต๐น Portugal. ๐ช๐ช Estonia owes 25%. midgardfinance.com/eu-debt/
๐ #AI #capex ๐บ๐ธ $ORCL and ๐บ๐ธ $CRWV earn the least on the AI build: 24% and 14% of the capex they have sunk since 2023 comes back as extra operating cash flow a year. ๐บ๐ธ $META 49%, ๐บ๐ธ $GOOGL 42%, ๐บ๐ธ $MSFT 37%, ๐บ๐ธ $AMZN 35%. The two borrowing to build earn least on it. midgardfinance.com/ai/
๐ฉบ #healthcare #insurance ๐บ๐ธ $UNH UnitedHealth's insurer made $9.6bn of operating profit in 2025, down from $16.2bn. Optum Health, its clinics, fell from $7.9bn to $2.3bn. First nine months of 2026: $12.5bn and $3.1bn, up from $9.1bn and $1.9bn. midgardfinance.com/companies/UNH/
๐ #AI #semiconductors ๐น๐ผ $TSM TSMC: high-performance computing, which includes AI accelerators, made up 68% of revenue in Q3 2026, up from 29% in Q1 2019. Smartphones fell from 47% to 21%. In those years, the operating margin doubled, from 29% to 59%. midgardfinance.com/companies/2330.TW/
๐ #AI #bonds ๐บ๐ธ $ORCL Oracle's bonds yield 2.2 percentage points more than US Treasuries, up from 0.9 a year ago. $CRWV CoreWeave's yield 10.4 more, up from 4.4 in April. $GOOGL Alphabet pays 0.3 over, as it did a year ago. $AMZN Amazon and $META Meta pay under a point. midgardfinance.com/ai/
๐ #AI #bonds ๐บ๐ธ $CRWV CoreWeave's net interest expense was $1.87bn in the 12 months to June, against an operating loss of $0.23bn. In 2024, $0.32bn of operating income nearly covered $0.36bn of interest. Its dollar bonds yield about 15%, on 9% to 9.75% coupons. midgardfinance.com/ai/
๐ #AI #bonds ๐บ๐ธ $CRWV CoreWeave's net interest expense was $1.87bn in the 12 months to June, against an operating loss of $0.23bn. In 2024, $0.32bn of operating income nearly covered $0.36bn of interest. Its dollar bonds yield about 15%, on 9% to 9.75% coupons. midgardfinance.com/ai/
๐บ๐ธ The gap between what the safest and the weaker US companies pay to borrow is 0.48 points. Near a 66-year low. $CRWV's own disclosed facilities: 8.12% to 13.29%. The average says calm. The individual borrower says otherwise. midgardfinance.com/ai-capex/ #CoreWeave #AICapex #leverage
โ๏ธ #cloud #AI Google Cloud ๐บ๐ธ $GOOGL earned a 36% operating margin in Q2 2026, up from 3% in Q3 2023. AWS ๐บ๐ธ $AMZN earned 39%, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud ๐บ๐ธ $MSFT 41%. Google Cloud's revenue grew 82%, and Q2 was the first quarter with sales of TPU systems. midgardfinance.com/research/cloud/