Migration Observatory

ft.comEU set to delay push for cheaper UK university fees for bloc’s studentsConcession could help the two sides finalise a ‘reset’ deal at a summit next month

The European Commission has asked member states to wait until after the November summit to pursue lower tuition fees for EU students at UK universities, according to the FT. Instead, the UK would be asked to commit to reaching an agreement on fees within six months. www.ft.com/content/4777...

Migration Observatory reposted

In the year ending June 2026, 2,234 Skilled Worker visas were granted to jobs recommended by the MAC for the Temporary Shortage List (33% of middle-skill grants). Quarterly grants to other middle-skill jobs not on the TSL (including the interim list) fell from 1,923 in 2024 Q4 to 131 in 2026 Q2.

In the year ending June 2026, 157,000 work visas were granted, less than half the number granted in 2023. Our updated work visas briefing looks at the routes work migrants used to come to the UK, the jobs they do once they're here, and how many stay. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

Migration Observatory reposted

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukCitizenship and naturalisation for migrants in the UK - Migration ObservatoryThis briefing looks at citizenship and naturalisation among migrants in the UK.

Why are more people applying for British citizenship than ever before? Our updated briefing explores how many citizenship applications have been made, who is more likely to naturalise, and some possible reasons for the recent rise. Check it out 👇 migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukCitizenship and naturalisation for migrants in the UK - Migration ObservatoryThis briefing looks at citizenship and naturalisation among migrants in the UK.

The ONS estimates that the UK population increased by 228,000 between mid-2024 and mid-2025. Births only outnumbered deaths by 5,000. As a result, migration accounted for 98% of the increase (223,000). Here's the full publication 👉 www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukQ&A: Why have small boat arrivals declined in 2026? - Migration ObservatorySmall boat arrivals declined significantly in the first seven months of 2026. This commentary analyses the numbers and explains what we can – and cannot – know about the reasons for the decline.

This month, small boat arrivals reached their lowest level since December 2021. There were 27,900 arrivals in the last year. In our new commentary, we explore why arrivals have fallen, including how much of the decline may be due to policy. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

eventbrite.co.ukMigration Statistics User ForumA forum for users and producers of international migration statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Home Office.

22 Sept

The event of the year is back on Thursday 10th December! The Migration Statistics User Forum is your opportunity to find out what ONS, Home Office and other government data teams are planning on migration, and to tell them what stats you need. www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/migration-...

22 Sept

In July, 43% of the public said immigration was an important issue affecting the UK, more than any other topic. Take a look at our updated public attitudes briefing to see how views vary towards different migrant groups and who is more likely to hold positive/negative attitudes toward immigration.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

22 Sept

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukPublic attitudes towards immigration in the UK - Migration ObservatoryThis briefing provides an overview of attitudes toward immigration in Britain.

Migration Observatory reposted

Madeleine Sumption

@msumption.bsky.social

18 Sept

My op-ed in the FT today about why it can be misleading when the migration debate focuses too much on work visas A big theme in my recent book, "What is Immigration Policy For?" which looks at why immigration policy is so difficult for governments to manage www.amazon.co.uk/What-Immigra...

Migration Observatory reposted

Madeleine Sumption

@msumption.bsky.social

17 Sept

Book available here in case you don't have a copy yet! bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/trade/what-i...

bristoluniversitypress.co.ukWhat Is Immigration Policy For?What Is Immigration Policy For?; This book explores what immigration policy seeks to achieve and why so many people end up unhappy with the outcome. Drawing on decades of research and examples from hi...

Madeleine Sumption@msumption.bsky.social

How does immigration affect public finances? Is the OBR getting it right? Which migration policies are fiscally costly vs beneficial? Much enjoyed discussing all this - and my new book, "What is immigration policy for?" with @theifs.bsky.social on their excellent IFS Zooms In podcast

Migration Observatory reposted

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

@theifs.bsky.social

10 Sept

NEW PODCAST: How does immigration affect the public finances? 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social, @msumption.bsky.social, and @maxwarner.bsky.social sit down to discuss the impact of migration on the economy and the public finances ⬇️

Migration Observatory reposted

Madeleine Sumption

@msumption.bsky.social

17 Sept

The Institute for Fiscal Studies@theifs.bsky.social

11 Sept

Our Director Madeleine Sumption joins Helen Miller and Max Warner, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, to discuss how immigration affects the public finances, and what falling migration means for the UK economy. Check it out👉https://ifs.org.uk/articles/how-does-immigration-affect-public-finances

10 Sept

Small boat arrivals reached the lowest level since December 2021 today. There were 27,900 arrivals in the last 365 days. So far in 2026, arrivals are down by 47% compared to the same period of 2025. We explore why in our commentary: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukUK Public Opinion toward Immigration: Overall Attitudes and Level of Concern - Migration ObservatoryThis briefing provides an overview of attitudes toward immigration in Britain.

8 Sept

UPDATED BRIEFING: Public opinion has become less supportive of immigration recently, but the picture is nuanced, and the UK is still more positive than many European neighbours UK Public Opinion toward Immigration: Overall Attitudes and Level of Concern migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

28 Aug

Reports that small shops and takeaways have hired migrants on Skilled Worker visas have appeared in several media outlets recently. Our new Q&A explains why these employers were able to sponsor migrants, how many actually did, whether the government could ban them from using the visa system + more.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

28 Aug

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukQ&A: Are vape shops really sponsoring skilled work visas? - Migration ObservatoryThis Q&A examines why small shops and takeaways have been able to hire migrants on skilled work visas.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukCitizenship applications hit new record while asylum applications fall - Migration Observatory

27 Aug

📊New migration stats: asylum applications are down, while UK citizenship applications hit a record high. 315,000+ applied in the year to June 2026 (+17%). Non-EU nationals drove the numbers, but growth was sharper among EU nationals. Check our analysis: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/citize...

Migration Observatory reposted

We've updated our briefing on migrants and crime in the UK It looks at whether foreign nationals are more or less likely to be convicted than British citizens, and how many foreign national offenders are removed after serving their sentences Here are the key points.

The government does not publish data on the share of foreign national offenders (FNOs) who are deported. However, the number of FNOs living in the community has increased over the past decade, suggesting that returns have not kept pace with prison releases.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukMigrants and crime in the UK - Migration ObservatoryThis briefing provides the available evidence on migration and crime in the UK.

See the briefing for more on what the data can – and can’t – tell us about migration and crime. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

Non-citizens were more likely to be convicted or incarcerated for drug offences and less likely for violent offences than British citizens The picture is more complicated for sexual offences—they are overrepresented among convictions but underrepresented in the prison population

Non-citizens are less likely to receive bail than citizens and so are overrepresented in the population of people on remand awaiting trial. Around 25% of non-citizens in prisons had not yet been tried, compared to 11% of British citizens.

The share of non-citizens among people in England and Wales prisons is lower when age is taken into account. This is because non-citizens tend to be younger, and criminal offending takes place primarily among young men.

Offending varies by nationality. This is to be expected because people from different backgrounds will have different risk factors (e.g socioeconomic deprivation) The most common non-UK nationalities in English and Welsh prisons at the end of 2025 were Albanian, Irish, & Polish.

Non-UK citizens made up 13.1% of people given cautions or convictions in 2024 and 12.1% of the prison population in June 2025. This was similar to their share of the 16+ population

Migration Observatory reposted

17 Aug

How much do migrants receive in Universal Credit payments? In the year ending March 2026, the DWP made £80 billion in UC payments – 8.3% (or £6.7bn) was paid to households with at least one EEA-national claimant and 7.7% (or £6.2bn) to households with at least one non-EEA-national claimant.

civilserviceworld.com'Immigration policies often just don’t work very well': Interview with migration expert Madeleine SumptionWhy does migration policy cause so much division? And what might help to resolve it?

30 July

Can immigration policy deliver everything people want from it? Our Director Madeleine Sumption discusses the ideas behind her new book, What Is Immigration Policy For?, including why immigration policy involves difficult trade-offs. Check it out 👉 www.civilserviceworld.com/in-depth/art...

Migration Observatory reposted

COMPAS

@compasoxford.bsky.social

29 July

@msumption.bsky.social, Director of @migobs.bsky.social at COMPAS, provides a policy perspective on BBC R4's series on UK immigration. Listen for more on legal migration, changes to indefinite leave to remain, & public opinion on migration 🔊 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand...

23 July

The Migration Advisory Committee has published its recommendation on which middle-skill jobs should be eligible for temporary work visas via the Temporary Shortage List. The headline? Welders and other more technical jobs are in. Jobs that are more generic (e.g., Business sales executives) are out.

23 July

Sectors that hire migrant workers on the TSL will be required to increase their use of the domestic workforce. Will it work? Possibly, but the MAC highlights two key challenges:

gov.ukTemporary Shortage List: Stage 2 report (accessible)

23 July

You can read the full review here: www.gov.uk/government/p...

Migration Observatory reposted

22 July

Between Jan 2021 and March 2026, 52k international students switched into the care sector (44% of people who switched from study to work visas). Will these study-to-care switchers stay in the sector? That will depend on whether the qualifying period for ILR is increased from 5 to 15 years... (1/2)

Migration Observatory reposted

15 July

Since 2021, 160,000 Hong Kongers have migrated to the UK via the humanitarian BNO visa route. Our new briefing looks at BNOs’ characteristics, their economic outcomes, and how many expect to stay in the UK long term. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

14 July

In 2025, just over 100,000 people claimed asylum in the UK. Our updated briefing explains who claims asylum, how these people come to the UK, whether their claims are successful, and much more. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

Migration Observatory reposted

How does migration affect the UK’s public finances? Overall, the impacts are small, but people on different immigration routes have significantly different impacts. Here’s why, in 3 posts…

How does migration affect the UK’s public finances? Overall, the impacts are small, but people on different immigration routes have significantly different impacts. Here’s why, in 3 posts…

OBR forecasts have generally estimated that higher migration leads to (slightly) lower deficits and debt. How much, though, depends on whether governments use the additional tax revenue to increase public service spending to reflect a bigger population.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukThe Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the UK - Migration ObservatoryThis briefing gives an overview of research on the impact of immigration on government finances in the UK and explains the main issues related to estimating the fiscal impact of immigration in the UK.

To find out more, take a look at our updated briefing on fiscal impacts. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

How does migration affect the UK’s public finances? Overall, the impacts are small, but people on different immigration routes have significantly different impacts. Here’s why, in 3 posts…

Broadly speaking, migrants working in jobs towards the top of the skill and salary spectrum bring a net fiscal benefit, while people who are out of work or use more public services have a net negative impact.

Migrants' fiscal impact changes over time. They are more positive in the years after they arrive, but their contribution falls over time. This is because, later in life, people incur more public spending – particularly on healthcare and pensions. E.g. main applicants on health and care visas...

25 June

Why do asylum seekers come to the UK? Our latest Q&A looks at what influences their destination choices, including grant rates, family reunion policies, and the UK's departure from Dublin after Brexit. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

A new Lords Committee report on the proposed changes to earned settlement, as well as the UK's approach to integration more generally, was published yesterday. Here are three things you need to know.

The Committee was critical of the UK’s migration data. It recommended that the government link visa records to employment, benefit, and public services data to better understand the outcomes of migrants on different visa routes.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.ukChanges to settlement: what do they mean? - Migration ObservatoryIn November 2025, the government announced changes making it harder to obtain settlement in the UK (ILR). This commentary examines the changes and their potential impact.

You can read the full report here: committees.parliament.uk/committee/51... And our analysis of earned settlement here: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

A new Lords Committee report on the proposed changes to earned settlement, as well as the UK's approach to integration more generally, was published yesterday. Here are three things you need to know.

On the earned settlement, a majority: - Supported the introduction of mandatory requirements to acquire ILR (regardless of time on a qualifying visa). - Opposed extending the qualifying period for ILR beyond 5 years. - Opposed retrospection for migrants already on a route to settlement.