The Military Emissions Gap

ceobs.orgAnalysis reveals weakening emissions reporting amid rising military spending - CEOBSNew UNFCCC Military Emissions Gap data paints a grim picture of obstructive under reporting from countries ramping up their military spending.

Today we launch our annual analysis of military emissions reporting transparency. Here's what we've found: ceobs.org/analysis-rev...

UNEP are sounding the alarm- the latest #EmissionsGap report highlights how conflicts are impacting global energy supply as well as increasing emissions through military operations, infrastructure destruction and landscape fires.

UN Environment Programme@unep.org

The chance to keep global warming below 1.5°C with no overshoot is gone. But urgent action can still limit the overshoot and bring warming back to 1.5°C by 2100. Current policies, however, put the 🌎 on course for up to 2.8°C this century. New #EmissionsGap Report: https://ow.ly/SNHX50ZZz8l

ceobs.orgMilitaries and conflict: critical gaps in climate action - CEOBSAnalysing how governments address military emissions and conflict impacts in their UNFCCC Nationally Determined Contribution climate plans.

Our latest report shows that this is a gap across climate action; that no governments has a plan to reduce the emissions from their militaries, meanwhile conflicts are continuing to be a barrier to climate mitigation and adaption. Read our analysis here: ceobs.org/militaries-a...

Military and conflict emissions must be on the agenda at #COP31 - it’s time for governments to address escalating military emissions and plug the gap in climate action.

UN Environment Programme@unep.org

Militaries contribute an estimated 5.5% of global emissions during peacetime. As the world faces the most violent conflict since WWII, the impact of militaries on climate breakdown grows alongside complex impacts on energy supply. Here’s what the #EmissionsGap report says:

Last week, we joined NATO CCASCOE and the CDA Institute for the Montréal Climate Security Summit, hosting a side event ‘Low carbon pathways on the road to 5%’. We shared how deep decarbonisation is needed across militaries as NATO spending targets are set to drive emissions higher.

🚨 There’s a critical gap in #ClimateAction 🚨 Our analysis of UNFCCC climate action plans (NDCs) revealed that not a single government has included measures to reduce military emissions in their plans to limit warming to 1.5C. Read the report at: ceobs.org/militaries-a...

While NDCs are quiet on the climate impact of militaries, multiple countries reference how conflict is a barrier to climate mitigation and adaptation with impacts like damage to ecosystems, increased vulnerability and hits to financial investment.

The UNFCCC can't continue to ignore the relationship between militaries, conflicts and climate action. Ahead of #COP31, governments must commit to concrete military emissions reductions and prioritise investment in conflict prevention and peacebuilding over military spending.

theguardian.comCop31 host urges wealthy countries to spend ‘much more’ on climate than defence‘The climate issue is the security issue,’ says Turkish minister at Pacific pre-Cop summit in Fiji

While we agree with Turkiye's environment minister Murat Kurum that climate spending should exceed NATO's 5% defence target he would be a more credible advocate if Turkiye reported the GHG emissions of its $25bn military spending www.theguardian.com/environment/... #COP31

Conflict and Environment Observatory

Learn more about the #COP31 host's dubious approach to military emissions reporting in our new report bsky.app/profile/mili...

The Military Emissions Gap@militaryemissions.org

Today we launch our annual analysis of military emissions reporting transparency. Here's what we've found: ceobs.org/analysis-rev...

The Military Emissions Gap reposted

@ceobs.org

When we launched this project at COP26 we assumed that military emissions reporting might improve over time. As #COP31 approaches, the climate crisis intensifies and military spending balloons, this doesn't appear to be the case.

The Military Emissions Gap@militaryemissions.org

Today we launch our annual analysis of military emissions reporting transparency. Here's what we've found: ceobs.org/analysis-rev...

Today we launch our annual analysis of military emissions reporting transparency. Here's what we've found: ceobs.org/analysis-rev...

This means that military emissions reporting is getting worse while military spending rises and the climate crisis intensifies: more emissions, less data, a blind spot for #ClimateSecurity, and a black hole in global #ClimateAction. Read more ceobs.org/analysis-rev...

militaryemissions.orgThe Military Emissions Gap – Tracking the long war that militaries are waging on the climate

You can explore what your government reports to the UNFCCC, what it spends on its military, and whether it has military climate action plan in place using our interactive map militaryemissions.org

Today we launch our annual analysis of military emissions reporting transparency. Here's what we've found: ceobs.org/analysis-rev...

Reporting to the #UNFCCC shows a worrying trend of more governments obscuring the true scale of their military’s climate pollution, including #COP31 host #Türkiye.

22 Sept

How are climate change, conflict and peace connected? We spoke to @saferworld.bsky.social's Warpod and Mitzi Jonelle Tan about militaries and the transition away from fossil fuels, after the Santa Marta conference held earlier this year. Listen here: www.saferworld-global.org/multimedia/w...

ccascoe.orgMontréal Climate Security Summit 2026 - NATO Climate Change & Security Centre of ExcellenceResilient Defence: Climate-Smart Investments on the Road to 5% is the fifth edition of the Montréal Climate Security Summit, focused on defence resilience, climate adaptation, and strategic investment.

15 Sept

Next month we're co-hosting a roundtable at the Montréal #ClimateSecurity Summit 2026. Partnering with the Initiative for GHG Accounting in War, we'll be exploring the emissions implications of NATO's 5% spending goal: ccascoe.org/event/montre...

carbonbrief.orgAnalysis: China’s CO2 emissions fall in Q2 2026 due to plummeting oil use - Carbon BriefChina’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, as oil consumption plummeted amid the strait of Hormuz crisis.

3 Sept

Fascinating @carbonbrief.org study on how the global energy crisis caused by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran have influenced China's GHG emissions www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...

iea.orgGlobal coal demand set to increase this year amid Middle East conflict - News - IEAGlobal coal demand set to increase this year amid Middle East conflict - News from the International Energy Agency

11 Sept

The flip side? The Iran war has reversed a decreasing trend of coal use, with demand increasing by 1.2%, bringing the world’s consumption to a record 8.94 billion tonnes. www.iea.org/news/global-...

rusi.orgThe Battery Gap: Building Industrial Strength for a Military EdgeGoing without notice until they are not there, batteries are increasingly critical to Defence, but a steady supply is far from assured.

11 Sept

Militaries are a hard to abate sector, reducing emissions will be contingent on access to batteries, which in turn is prompting scrutiny of supply chains... www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

3 Sept

Still think militaries should get a free pass for their GHG emissions?

UN Environment Programme@unep.org

Global warming is set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, a new UNEP report warns. Predicted impacts include extreme weather and threats to human health and economies.

thewire.inThe Military Is India’s Missing Climate SectorOne of the country’s and arguably the world’s largest consumers of fuel, land, infrastructure and industrial production remains almost entirely outside climate scrutiny: the defence establishment.

2 Sept

Like most countries, #India's failure to clearly account for its military emissions in UN reporting is obstructing public scrutiny of the role its military plays in generating the country's annual emissions thewire.in/environment/...

thebulletin.orgThe US military’s fatal stance on climate changeThe Pentagon is preparing to wage war in a warmer world, even as it accelerates it

1 Sept

Even while it’s adapting for a hot new world with its emergencies and imminent threats, writes Neta Crawford for @thebulletin.org, the military has largely sidestepped its role in creating the #ClimateCrisis. thebulletin.org/2026/08/the-...

26 Aug

It's encouraging seeing growing numbers of researchers engaging with the challenge of estimating conflict GHG emissions. This Dutch team used Material Flow Analysis, finding that two months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine equalled the monthly emissions of Denmark link.springer.com/content/pdf/...

thebulletin.orgMission impossible? Quantifying military emissionsMilitary and wartime emissions are difficult to track—but too important to ignore.

26 Aug

This is a great overview of the state of play on military emissions reporting from Neta Crawford for @thebulletin.org: Military and wartime emissions are difficult to track—but too important to ignore. thebulletin.org/2026/08/miss...

rethinkingsecurity.org.ukMilitary Climate Action Swamped by Spending RisesSome militaries have strategies to reduce their carbon emissions – but the latest data shows these are being dwarfed by the effects of spiralling arms spending. Stuart Parkinson investigates.

20 July

Military #ClimateAction? Blown apart by rising military spending via @responsiblesci.bsky.social Some militaries have strategies to reduce their carbon emissions – but the latest data shows these are being dwarfed by the effects of spiralling arms spending. rethinkingsecurity.org.uk/2026/07/17/m...

eventbrite.co.ukThe Environmental Politics of WarThis workshop will foster critical discussions around the environmental politics of war and conflict.

10 July

We're really looking forward to contributing to this!

PSA Environmental Politics Specialist Group@psaenvironmental.bsky.social

We're really excited for our workshop @warwickpais.bsky.social, featuring speakers from @ids.ac.uk @ceobs.org @polisatleeds.bsky.social and more! www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-enviro...

politico.euCost disputes stall NATO’s mammoth military pipeline overhaulUpgrading NATO’s fuel pipelines would be the most expensive project in the alliance’s history and is splitting member countries.

7 July

NATO countries are currently negotiating a €26 billion upgrade to fossil fuel pipelines. While NATO countries may be focused on expanding drone capabilities, this serves as a reminder that militaries are locked into fossil fuel use for decades to come. www.politico.eu/article/cost...

sgr.org.ukMilitary climate strategies: are they just greenwash?This in-depth report examines the carbon reduction plans for the militaries of 26 nations, mainly from Europe and North America. The findings give much cause for concern. They show that most military ...

6 July

More and more governments are publishing military climate strategies, but are they actually helping to reduce the climate impact of militaries or are they simply greenwashing? Thanks to @responsiblesci.bsky.social for this great new resource!

Scientists for Global Responsibility@responsiblesci.bsky.social

Militaries are failing on climate action. Our latest report takes an in-depth look at the climate strategies of 26 nations' militaries 🧵👇🧪 www.sgr.org.uk/publications...

assets.publishing.service.gov.ukassets.publishing.service.gov.uk

Closing off the hottest June on record, the UK’s Defence Investment Plan (DIP) has landed. With barely any mention of climate in the document itself, what impact will the DIP have on the UK's climate action? 🧵 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a44e9...

ceobs.orgHow increasing global military expenditure threatens SDG 13 on Climate action - CEOBSRising military expenditure threatens SDG 13: NATO’s increased spending alone will cause $119–264 bn/year in collateral climate damage.

Secondly, the DIP doesn’t address the military’s role in climate breakdown. @ceobs.org and @responsiblesci.bsky.social estimate that military spending increases across NATO + EU could cause up to $298 billion in climate damages per year, contributing to instability. ceobs.org/how-increasi...

According to outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer: “The best way to avoid war is to prepare for it.” But with funding for climate action, overseas development aid, peacebuilding and conflict prevention programmes taking a hit to fund the Ministry of Defence, the DIP risks making us all less safe.

assets.publishing.service.gov.ukassets.publishing.service.gov.uk

gov.ukUK launches first ever taskforce to strengthen climate securityLeading security, military and academics have joined forces with the government to boost the UK’s preparedness for the security impacts of climate change.

There’s no doubt that we live in an increasingly unstable world, but the climate crisis plays a role in that instability. Just last week, the UK Gov launched its first ever taskforce to boost the UK’s preparedness for the security impacts of climate change. www.gov.uk/government/n...

The taskforce is a welcome move that suggests the climate crisis is being understood as a serious threat. To reduce the risk, we need action to tackle the root causes of climate breakdown - fossil fuel dependency. Instead, we're seeing energy projects shelved to fund the DIP.

assets.publishing.service.gov.ukassets.publishing.service.gov.uk

gov.ukThe Defence Investment Plan Funding explainer

Firstly, on funding – every department has been asked to make cuts to fund the plan, with the Dept forTransport and Dept for Energy Security and Net Zero facing the biggest cuts. What does this tell us about the UK Gov’s priorities? www.gov.uk/government/p...

democrata.esParties demand transparency on military emissionsSumar, ERC, Bildu, Podemos and BNG demand Defense data on military emissions and a binding international standard to declare and reduce them.

23 June

Progressive left parties in Spain have tabled a Congress proposal demanding the Government detail "rigorously and completely" the GHG emissions of the Spanish Armed Forces, and promote regulation of Spanish defence industry emissions: www.democrata.es/en/politics/...

bbc.co.ukFuel sales halted in occupied Crimea as Ukraine targets oil facilitiesFuel had already been rationed due to shortages caused by Kyiv's attacks against supply routes in Russian-occupied territories.

21 June

Russia's war against Ukraine is funded by fossil fuels, even as its military's reliance on them is exposing the inherent vulnerabilities associated with moving carbon in conflict. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

11 June

How has the US-Israel war on Iran impacted global energy policies? A new report from @climateactiontracker.org analyses government responses and impacts of decarbonisation.

Climate Action Tracker @climateactiontracker.org

3/ Our latest briefing examines responses across 40 countries following the Iran energy shock. The picture is mixed, with many governments still falling short of measures that would support future #decarbonisation. 📚 Read the full briefing here: climateactiontracker.org/publications...

bloomberg.comIran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy TransitionFrom the Yom Kippur war to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, history shows that major events in the oil and gas markets can drive enduring changes to the global energy mix.

11 June

Dan Jørgensen, commissioner for energy and housing at the European Commission says the lesson “is now impossible to ignore: dependence on imported fossil fuels is not only an environmental liability, it is a major strategic and economic vulnerability.” www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

8 June

This week, we’re at the UNFCCC June Climate Meetings talking about militarism and climate breakdown. Our Researcher Grace joins a side event today at 12 CEST to share the latest on military emissions underreporting in the UNFCCC - if you’re in Bonn, join us!

luma.comClimate Security Forum - King's College & E3G · LumaAmidst geopolitically turbulent times, climate action risks being sidelined as governments prioritize defence spending and economic resilience in response to…

5 June

We're at London Climate Action Week later this month and part of @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social climate security forum, talking about the #Iran war and conflict and military emissions, register here: luma.com/dr185usx #LCAW26

The Military Emissions Gap reposted

Conflict and Environment Observatory

@ceobs.org

27 May

1/2 Communicating the scale of conflict pollution incidents can be a challenge, here researchers examining the oil fires in Tehran liken them to a volcano. The fires were the result of Israeli airstrikes and exposed huge numbers of civilians to pollutants www.newscientist.com/article/2527...

newscientist.comAttack on Iran’s oil released as much pollution as a volcanoAirstrikes on Tehran earlier this year emitted a plume containing almost 30,000 tonnes of sulphur dioxide that reached Asian countries

24 Apr

We are in Santa Marta, Colombia for the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels. Previous climate frameworks have failed to address militaries, yet both climate breakdown and rising militarism are increasingly urgent problems. Will governments in Santa Marta break the mould?

Conflict and Environment Observatory

24 Apr

We will be addressing this topic with friends in Santa Marta, sharing our hopes for ambitious transition roadmaps and exploring what a Just Transition means for peace and security on a local and international level. Register to join us in person or online here: peaceboat.org/english/news...

The Military Emissions Gap reposted

@ceobs.org

23 Apr

States, academics and civil society will soon meet in #SantaMarta #Colombia for a conference on phasing out fossil fuels. To avoid past mistakes @militaryemissions.org argues that this process must address #military fuel use ceobs.org/fossil-fuel-... @fossiltreaty.bsky.social @ciel.org

ceobs.orgFossil fuel transition talks must address militaries - CEOBSWars, spiralling military spending, a global energy crisis? We explain why militaries must be part of a future fossil energy transition.

The Military Emissions Gap reposted

20 Apr

The #SantaMarta conference on a fossil fuel transition must navigate and address #military emissions and fossil fuel insecurity. Our post explores this and how breaking from a consensus model can mean a break from military climate inaction. ceobs.org/fossil-fuel-...

20 Apr

carbonbrief.orgIran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis - Carbon BriefCarbon Brief has drawn on tracking by IEA and other sources to assess the global policy response to the Iran war.

10 Apr

Useful overview from @carbonbrief.org, which provides a global snapshot of our collective fossil fuel insecurity www.carbonbrief.org/iran-war-ana...