Mitch Tobin

Tough to see: I recently took a drive and drone flight around the Ferris Fire burn scar, which spans nearly 65,000 acres in southwest Colorado. waterdesk.org/photos-ferri...

Scenes from yesterday's flooding along the San Juan River, between Farmington, New Mexico, and Aneth, Utah. More images in The Water Desk’s multimedia library: waterdesk.org/photos-san-j...

Disastrous flooding along the San Juan River in the Four Corners region. Here’s some of what I saw today in Shiprock, on the Navajo Nation in northwest New Mexico.

New photo essay at snow.news from my recent visit to SNOTEL stations in Colorado's San Juan Mountains. For all their limitations, these sites remain essential to understanding the changing snowpack and the water it supplies. www.snow.news/p/photos-sno...

🎉 Happy New Water Year! 💧 My latest post at snow.news explains why water wonks hit reset on October 1 and uses maps to show how water year 2026 played out. www.snow.news/p/welcome-to...

At the beginning of September, #streamflow was below average for most regional rivers, especially in Colorado and Utah. On September 9, record-low daily streamflow was recorded at 30 or more sites in Colorado, 10 sites in Utah, and two in Wyoming.

"A red flag for the future." New research based on satellite data reveals California needs years of heavy snow to recoup groundwater. Scientists say it suggests recharging depleted aquifers will become more difficult as global warming brings more rain and less snow. www.latimes.com/environment/...

I joined The High Route podcast to discuss last season’s historic snow drought and what it means for the West. The show focuses on backcountry snow sports, so I was glad to share my perspective as both a skier and a journalist covering the snowpack. the-high-route.com/the-high-rou...

Scientists estimate global warming more than quadrupled the odds of the West’s snow drought when compared to the preindustrial climate, before human greenhouse gas emissions. "The amount of snow we’re missing is about the size of Lake Mead." @mitchtobin.bsky.social waterdesk.org/2026/08/clim...

My commentary on Marshall et al 2026's climate change rapid attribution study on severe Western U.S. snow drought, which developed during record-warm 2026 winter & has contributed to widespread drought & wildfire-related impacts since, is now out. [Thread] www.pnas.org/doi/10....

I had a very interesting—and sobering—conversation with Adrienne Marshall (@hydro-adrienne.bsky.social), lead author of a new study on climate change and the West’s 2026 snow drought. Some scary projections if emissions keep climbing—but that’s not a fait accompli. waterdesk.org/2026/08/clim...

The Colorado River's 15-Mile Reach is back down to record low flows -- 57 cfs this afternoon, an all-time low for this day in the period of record for this USGS gage.

2026 Western U.S. snow drought approx 1-in-7 year event in current climate, 1-in-30 year event in 19th century climate, and may be a biennial event later in the 21st century, study finds. Specifics vary by region. Read more at link below, or in quoted thread: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

The effects of last winter’s historic snow drought were easy to see—and feel—during my recent summer road trip through Colorado: smoky skies, depleted reservoirs, and virtually no snow left on a 14er. New photo essay: www.snow.news/p/photo-essa...

This was Colorado's hottest first half of a year on record...and it wasn't even close. Average statewide temp of 46.2° (NCEI data) made this our hottest January-June on record by more than a full degree. The impact of a warming climate is clear in the chart below. #COwx

A smoky, shriveled Blue Mesa Reservoir, along Colorado’s Gunnison River, on July 1. More photos of this part of the Colorado River Storage Project are available in The Water Desk’s free multimedia library: waterdesk.org/photos-blue-...

The just concluded 12-month snow season (July 1 to June 30) was the least snowy on record for both the Contiguous U.S. and for Europe. ❄️😭

When Colorado River experts descended on CU-Boulder in June, one high-profile negotiator pointed an accusatory finger at its quads: “There is a metric shit ton of turf grass on this campus.” How Western universities maintain their "oasis-like" feel amid epic drought: waterdesk.org/2026/07/how-...

The Gold Mountain Fire burns north of Ouray, Colorado, on July 1.

Can AI help forecast if a storm will deliver fluffy powder or dense, heavy snow? My latest story for The Water Desk explains how scientists used hand-collected snowfall data to improve predictions of the snow-to-liquid ratio—a key driver of winter storm hazards. waterdesk.org/2026/05/mach...

Not to sound like a broken record, but this snow drought really has been record-breaking. Two recent updates from scientists drive home just how abysmal the West’s 2025-2026 snow season has been, with the snowpack hitting new lows in some datasets. www.snow.news/p/2026-snow-...

Late-season storms brought much-needed moisture to parts of the West, but they didn’t come close to erasing the deficit. New at snow.news: an update on the snow drought — plus a remembrance of my dad, who helped inspire my love of journalism and weather. www.snow.news/p/snow-droug...

Elephant Butte Reservoir could go as low as 2% capacity this summer. I reported from Santa Fe on the Rio Grande Compact Commission meeting as Colorado, New Mexico and Texas contend with less water after a dismal winter and warm spring. @insideclimatenews.org insideclimatenews.org/news/2004202...

🔥🔥🔥 The Nov-Mar 2025-26 cool/cold season was anything but cold for most of the Contiguous U.S. It was easily the warmest on record (1895-96 to present) overall. Many individual states shattered their record warmest Nov-Mar.

The latest monthly fire season outlook is up, and it's a doozy. Forecasts look similar a year ago, and the season ended up being below average in terms of acreage, so that's worth bearing in mind. But with the historic snow drought, this could be a big one. www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/p...

Colorado mountain snow: average year vs. this year. Record low snowpack by a HUGE margin.

This is a graph of snowpack above Lake Powell using 104 snow measuring stations. It was 9 inches of water on March 7, now 6 inches. Other dry years shown.There is no historical analog to this.

From @mitchtobin.bsky.social: "When our snowpack is meager—or entirely missing—it underscores how much we depend on this seasonal accumulation of ice crystals, even during the summer and far beyond the region."

Last week's record-setting heat took a major toll on Colorado's snowpack (which was already in bad shape). We're currently sitting at 44% of average with ~2 weeks to go until our average peak. Little to no precipitation is expected over the next 7 days. #cowx

Reporters! If you need Lake Powell/Bullfrog pics for your stories, check out this album from 2022 with free-to-use photos for news stories: www.waterdesk.photos/Utah/Bullfro...

Hydrologists described California's snowmelt the past three weeks as "unprecedented" and say the snowpack, already the lowest in more than a decade, will shrink further during a record-shattering heat wave next week. #CAwx

Colorado’s dust-free snow is a bright spot in an otherwise poor winter

Unfortunately, not much good news to share in our February state climate summary. According to NOAA data, it was the warmest February in 132 years of records. Mountain snowpack remains at the lowest level in over 40 years. Several locations set new monthly high temperature records for February. 1/4

5 snow stories on my radar ❄️ Drought, climate, and the deadly Sierra avalanche 🛌 Preserving snow with blankets 🏔️ Reintroducing wolverines to Colorado 📉 Western snowpack update ☃️ Our storm of the season? Read the full roundup at snow.news 👇 www.snow.news/p/5-snow-sto...

From @mitchtobin.bsky.social, snowmelt is responsible for 73% of the runoff from the Sierra Nevada (and 74% in the Rockies) and a large proportion of the water for the West's major reservoirs. mavensnotebook.com/2025/02/03/w...