Mackenzie Knight-Boyle

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle

@mknight.bsky.social

Research and Project Manager @ Federation of American Scientists - Nuclear Information Project Mother to a demonic chihuahua named Pippin 🐾 Views are my own

1.2K followers99 following80 posts

Listen I’m not saying we can trust that Trump didn’t just completely make up this number but I am saying that if he just disclosed the classified US estimate then I’m feelin preeeetty proud of our team’s estimate 😌

As an open source analyst that uses satellite imagery pretty much daily, this “tool” is one of the dumbest and most irresponsible things I’ve ever seen. Google just throwing fuel directly on the fire of disinformation and making the verification challenge even worse

🚨 Our 2026 Russia Nuclear Notebook is out! 🚨 Check it out below ⬇️⬇️ @scientistsorg.bsky.social

What is the current status of the Russian nuclear arsenal? Read the latest Russian Nuclear Notebook from @nukestrat.bsky.social, @mattkorda.bsky.social, and @mknight.bsky.social of @scientistsorg.bsky.social.

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle reposted

Had so much fun creating my first ever ArcGIS StoryMap based on a report by the amazing @christinaisa.bsky.social that breaks down for aspiring analysts how to do satellite imagery analysis of nuclear sites. Check out the StoryMap at the link in the post below!⬇️⬇️

Federation of American Scientists@scientistsorg.bsky.social

Satellite imagery has long served as a tool for observing on-the-ground activity worldwide, especially when it comes to nuclear technology. Here's how experts like Christina Krawec and @mknight.bsky.social assess and analyze imagery, using China's CFR-600 as a case study. fas.org/initiative/a...

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle reposted

Three days after Trump created a storm of confusion and concern by announcing he had directed Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons, Secretary of Energy finally clarifies US tests are”noncritical” that don’t produce a nuclear explosion. apnews.com/article/trum...

apnews.comTrump's testing plans for US nuclear weapons won't include explosions, energy secretary saysEnergy Secretary Chris Wright says that new tests of the U.S. nuclear weapons system ordered up by President Donald Trump will not include nuclear explosions.

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle reposted

1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong. 1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.

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More than likely, Trump is either just trying to make inflammatory threats, OR he means a very different type/level of nuclear testing than what his post implies and doesn’t know that “start nuclear weapons testing” has a very specific implication (because, well, he’s not smart).

To be more specific, as many others have pointed out, Trump is ~probably~ referring to testing nuclear delivery systems rather than explosive nuclear testing, particularly since that *would* be DOD's responsibility. (and probably in response to Russia's cruise missile test earlier this week)

1. The U.S. does not have the most nuclear weapons (Russia does). 2. Truly don’t even know what he could mean by the second sentence. That did not happen. 3. China will not be even with us in 5 years. 4. No other country is conducting nuclear weapons testing. “On an equal basis” = not at all

Interestingly, following recent reports that Sentinel would require "predominantly" new silos, the GAO report says only: "the Air Force is reassessing all aspects of its plan to field Sentinel, including the extent to which Sentinel will use the existing Minuteman III launch facilities."

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle@mknight.bsky.social

New report from the GAO on the Sentinel ICBM program 👀 this should be good

With the new GAO Sentinel report out, this feels like a great time to promote @mattkorda.bsky.social and I's recent report on Sentinel: The Two-Hundred Billion Dollar Boondoggle. We knew the Air Force would have to life-extend MMIII (and that they could have all along). Read more below 👇

fas.orgThe Two-Hundred Billion Dollar Boondoggle - Federation of American ScientistsNearly one year after the Pentagon certified the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program to continue after it incurred critical cost and schedule overruns, the new nuclear missile could on...

GAO confirms what Defense Daily reported back in January: "Air Force officials are assessing options to potentially operate Minuteman III through 2050." I seem to recall many arguments in favor of Sentinel resting on the premise that Minuteman could not be life extended 🤔

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle@mknight.bsky.social

New report from the GAO on the Sentinel ICBM program 👀 this should be good

"the Air Force has not yet developed a transition risk management plan, a leading project planning practice." "the Air Force has not developed a schedule for construction of a Sentinel test facility." wow I wonder why the program is billions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle reposted

With deranged chest-thumper in Oval Office, what to think about president having sole authority to order launch of US nukes? My colleague @mknight.bsky.social does deep dive on history, mechanics, and proposed changes to this arrangement. It’s not a black and white as you might think.👇

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle@mknight.bsky.social

The president has sole authority to order nuclear use- How did we get here? How does it work? What’s the issue? Can we solve it? My new @scientistsorg.bsky.social report on nuclear launch authority in the U.S. - “All the King’s Weapons” - is out! Read it below 👇 fas.org/publication/...

Mackenzie Knight-Boyle reposted

TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday: 🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM?? 🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader? ✈️ air-launched ballistic missile? 🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:

fas.orgNuclear Weapons At China's 2025 Victory Day Parade - Federation of American ScientistsThis buildup appears to contradict China's obligations under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and could well stimulate nuclear buildups in the United States and India.

oh sure for other missiles we'll add a whole bunch of letters to denote new versions and basing modes but for this ALBM we'll just reuse the name we already used for our first SLBM!!! somebody get me on the phone with Xi

80 years since the US dropped a nuclear bomb on Hiroshima. This is not history - there are still survivors of this bombing alive today. It is our duty, as the last generation capable of hearing their direct testimony, to listen to their stories and ensure it never happens again.

Absolutely disgusted and disappointed to be a Hoosier with this news. Giving a literal concentration camp a quirky alliterative name - especially one that’s supposed to invoke some sort of Indiana pride - is pure evil.

Politico@politico.com

A new immigrant detention center will be opening in Indiana called the “Speedway Slammer,” modeled after Florida’s “Alligator Alcatraz.” On #playbookpod, Megan Messerly explains why the rhetoric used by the administration to describe these centers is significant. 🎧 Listen here: ow.ly/yY5B50WAzH8