Charlie Henry

Travis County Day 8 70.2% of Dem '24 early voters have voted 65.2% of Rep '24 early voters have voted

Day 8: D+42 now. Republican primary voters had their best day so far being 35% of the ballots cast. Dems slowly losing their turnout advantage. '24 at the same point was D+38.

Day 8 of early voting in Travis County, TX: 2026: 33,278 2024: 37,562 2022: 22,257 2020: 31,715 2018: 26,668 2016: 24,265 2026's turnout has already passed the 2nd to last day of early voting for 2022. 4 days of early voting left.

Travis County Day 7 64.1% of Dem '24 early voters have voted 57.6% of Rep '24 early voters have voted

Day 7 of early voting in Travis County, TX: 2026: 18,612 2024: 17,680* 2022: 10,057* 2020: 31,945 2018: 12,530* 2016: 10,773* *polls open for 6 hours only

Travis County Day 6 60.7% of Dem '24 early voters have voted 54.2% of Rep '24 early voters have voted

Day 6: still D+43, same point during '24 was D+38.

Day 6 of early voting in Travis County, TX: 2026: 24,575 2024: 28,039 2022: 17,082 2020: 14,359 2018: 21,843 2016: 20,124

Travis County Day 5 54.3% of Dem '24 early voters have voted 48.6% of Rep '24 early voters have voted

Day 5: D+43, same point during '24 was D+38

Day 5 of early voting in Travis County, TX: 2026: 40,453 2024: 44,736 2022: 26,002 2020: 29,264 2018: 32,488 2016: 32,989

Travis County Day 4 45.6% of Dem '24 early voters have voted 39.8% of Rep '24 early voters have voted

Day 4 of early voting in Travis County, TX: 2026: 37,773 2024: 41,939 2022: 23,812 2020: 41,035 2018: 32,202 2016: 34,227

Travis County Day 3 37.0% of Dem '24 early voters have voted 30.6% of Rep '24 early voters have voted

Day 3 is D+46. Same point in '24 was D+38. D+8 shift

Hays and Dallas Counties both moved their first week of early voting to the full 12 hours allowed and have seen higher turnout than a presidential year. Hays: 101% of '24 Day 3 Dallas: 118% of '24 Day 3

Day 3 of early voting in Travis County, TX: 2026: 39,490 2024: 43,659 2022: 24,665 2020: 28,592 2018: 31,936 2016: 36,400

Travis County TX 26.7% of Dem '24 early voters have voted 21.0% of Rep '24 early voters have voted

Day 2 puts it at D+49 estimate for Travis. Same point in '24 was D+40. Still around a D+9 shift.

Second day of early voting in Travis County, TX 2026: 40,332 2024: 44,603 2022: 31,769 2020: 38,042 2018: 34,785 2016: 38,079

Not impossible that today's vote count could actually surpass yesterday's record turnout in Travis.

One thing I've noticed with this election is that Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot not keeping their county early vote centers open for the fully alotted 12 hours.

Number of hours of early voting today Travis: 12 Dallas: 12 Tarrant: 12 Williamson: 12 Hays: 10 Bexar: 10 Ellis: 10 Bell: 9 McLennan: 9 Montgomery: 9 Comal: 9

Noon forecast based on AM turnout as compared to 2022's 2nd day of EV Travis (D+39): 147% Hays (D+6): 183% Bell (R+16): 130% Ellis (R+31): 135% McLennan (R+31): 99% Montgomery (R+45): 113%

After 1 day of early voting, Travis County is sitting D+53. 2024 at the same point was D+45. Shift of D+8!

Say away from the line-based vibe analysis and just wait for the daily rosters!

First day of early voting turnout compared to 2022 Travis (D+39): 161% Hays (D+6): 171% Bell (R+16): 152% Ellis (R+31): 190% McLennan (R+31): 136% Montgomery (R+45): 123%

First day of early voting in Travis County, TX: 2026: 40,690 2024: 46,640 2022: 25,352 2020: 35,784 2018: 34,737 2016: 35,066

Trump: "My decision on Russia is simple... Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help Iran, compared to what they could be doing ... Zelenskyy is using refineries as a target, knowing attacks are seriously hurting ... He could have made better deal 2 years ago. His country is in shambles ..."

Another way to view this is that 2.26% of '24 D's have voted and 1.46% of '24 R's have voted already. So, in from that perspective dems are looking good with mail. Strange...

5,145 mail ballots counted in Travis County. This is now a R+5 shift with the versus the mail '24. Not a great signal for a blue wave.

28,791 mail ballots have been counted so far in Clark County, NV. Party reg split is ('24): D: 32% (42%) R: 24% (24%) Ind: 39% (28%) Ignoring independents on paper it's an R+14 shift? Yikes

SINGLE STAIR ALERT @dankeshet.bsky.social

A total of 3,292 mail-in ballots have been counted so far in Travis County. The partisan breakdown is R+1 versus the same point with mail in '24. There were 7,685 mail ballots counted at this point in '24. I haven't seen a blue wave with the mail, at least yet.

Last Thursday was the 4th busiest day and Friday was 8th busiest day at the Austin airport. Expect more days in the top 10 during F1 as Texas is hosting Ole Miss that weekend as well.

One of the more puzzling things about Texas is the distinct lack of hashbrowns? every brunch place does home fries

999 mail-in ballots counted today, totals to 1,507. 2022 was at 1,376. Estimated to be a D+58 batch. Brings mail to D+61 which matches the same overall split from '24 mail.

Based on primary voting history dems lead this batch 87% to 13% or D+74 lol

482 mail ballots have already been counted in Travis County. At the same point in 2022, 417 were already counted.

Forecast county flips on top of O'Rouke-Cruz '18 R->D - Denton - Collin - Caldwell D->R - Frio - Val Verde - La Salle - Ward

Clark County, NV registrations since Sept 1st: Nonpartisan +9,191 Democratic +4,798 Republican +1,387 Other +488

fun new project :) charlie-henry.github.io/atx-road-con...

Big oil bonus ➡️ Mr talarico

The *vibes* of the TX senate race feel similar to 2018 but the polling this time around has Talarico as a pretty significant favorite. Beto was a fairly heavy underdog but beat his polls by about 4 points.

Google's AI search is uniquely bad at confirmation bias

Huang's phone number/address analogy being rightfully clowned on. A better one would be GPS and getting directions. I think it's pretty wild how little intuition people have for where they are going these days.