Mortality 47 Project

Mortality 47 Project

@mortality47.org

Presenting estimates of the death toll attributable to policies of the administration of Donald J. Trump during his term as the 47th U.S. President. https://mortality47.org/

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Mortality 47 Project reposted

Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

I've just pushed out some revisions to the mortality47.com website. The biggest change is that several of the USAID counts have switched from the Impact Counter estimate to newer estimates with better data. The USAID disaster turns out to be much worse than the earlier estimates predicted.

mortality47.comMortality 47 - Trackng the Mortal Impact of Trump PoliciesSummarizing reports of estimated mortality data attributable to policies of the administration of Donald J. Trump during his term as the 47th U.S. President.
Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

I've just pushed out some revisions to the mortality47.com website. The biggest change is that several of the USAID counts have switched from the Impact Counter estimate to newer estimates with better data. The USAID disaster turns out to be much worse than the earlier estimates predicted.

mortality47.comMortality 47 - Trackng the Mortal Impact of Trump PoliciesSummarizing reports of estimated mortality data attributable to policies of the administration of Donald J. Trump during his term as the 47th U.S. President.
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Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

Also, the Info page for each modeled endpoint has a new Explore Model feature that allows you to see all of the modeling data and tinker with some of the opinionated parameters (like culpability).

Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

I've just pushed out some revisions to the mortality47.com website. The biggest change is that several of the USAID counts have switched from the Impact Counter estimate to newer estimates with better data. The USAID disaster turns out to be much worse than the earlier estimates predicted.

mortality47.comMortality 47 - Trackng the Mortal Impact of Trump PoliciesSummarizing reports of estimated mortality data attributable to policies of the administration of Donald J. Trump during his term as the 47th U.S. President.
Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

Another change is a new culpability model. Instead of attenuating culpability linearly down to 0 in two years, it uses a more reasonable 4-year S-curve attenuation model. Basically, we're using the PEPFAR handoff plan as the basis for estimating a handoff window for all USAID programs.

Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

True, but some of us are trying to draw attention to it. Mortality47.com bsky.app/profile/volt...

David Roberts@volts.wtf

Still feel like "Musk and his crew of incels destroyed a bunch of stuff they didn't understand and thereby hastened the deaths of millions of children" did not get the public attention it warranted.

wired.comUSAID Whistleblower Says It Was Even Worse Than People KnewPolitical appointees wanted a quiet drawdown, the whistleblower says. DOGE wanted an execution.
Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

Just added this sad event to the count at mortality47.org -- another casualty of JFK Jr. bsky.app/profile/eliz...

mortality47.orgMortality 47 - Trackng the Mortal Impact of Trump PoliciesSummarizing reports of estimated mortality data attributable to policies of the administration of Donald J. Trump during his term as the 47th U.S. President.
Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD@elizabethjacobs.bsky.social

Another baby has just died of whooping cough in Kentucky, thanks to RFK Jr. and his merry band of anti-vaxxers. My feeling toward RFK Jr. and the Republican Senators who confirmed him is utter contempt.

wlwt.comThird Kentucky infant dies from whooping cough as statewide cases surgeA third Kentucky infant has died from whooping cough in the last 12 months, the Kentucky Department for Public Health said Monday.
Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

Just added 2025 pertussis (whooping cough) deaths to the mortality count at mortality47.org The CDC doesn't post pertussis fatality data anywhere easy to find, so I'm building this from media reports. It would help if health departments (looking at you, Louisiana) didn't delay reports for months.

mortality47.orgMortality 47 - Trackng the Mortal Impact of Trump PoliciesSummarizing reports of estimated mortality data attributable to policies of the administration of Donald J. Trump during his term as the 47th U.S. President.
Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

Added the Villegas-Gonzalez shooting in Chicago to the list of ICE Incidental Deaths on the mortality counter at mortality47.org Here's the story: chicago.suntimes.com/news/2025/09...

chicago.suntimes.comMan fatally shot by ICE in Franklin Park had just dropped off his child at school, Rep. Delia Ramirez saysSilverio Villegas-Gonzalez was formally identified Saturday by the Cook County medical examiner's office. Ramirez and others are demanding an investigation into what happened.
Mortality 47 Project
@mortality47.org

This is experimental because I'm not sure where to draw the line for deaths caused by military action. Should I count deaths from more conventional actions? Only non-combatants or combatants too? What if U.S. actions provoke a response that kills Americans, does that go on the list?

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