Nathan Attrill

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Failed recalls deepen Taiwan’s political gridlock. Plus: German mayor apologises after city suggests Taiwan's flag be removed. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/failed-rec...

The Taiwan scenarios 4: The catastrophe. The world must convince China that the road to Taipei is lined with peril, not prizes. If Beijing acts, it faces the wrecking of its global standing. Preventing conflict is not Taiwan’s burden alone. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

The Taiwan scenarios 3: Day zero. Taiwan would not just collapse, capitulate or hand itself over. While it has been outpaced by the scale of China’s military developments, it is more capable than many assume. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

The Taiwan scenarios 2: Warning signs. At first, it may not be easy to see what’s afoot. The difference between China’s routine coercion of Taiwan and early signs of serious escalation to take control of the island may not be clear. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai to visit Paraguay via U.S. next month. Plus: Beijing vows punishment over Taiwan’s tightened residency rules for mainland spouses. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-to-vis...

The Taiwan Scenarios 1: Subversion, Quarantine, Blockade, Invasion. ASPI has wargamed President Xi Jinping’s options for subjugating Taiwan. We tried four scenarios, the details of which will be presented in this and three more daily articles this week. www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-taiwan-s...

'International partners have begun to pay closer attention to Taiwan’s experience. Officials in Taipei have shared intelligence with counterparts abroad and positioned their counter-espionage campaign as part of a broader effort to resist authoritarian influence,' writes Nathan Attrill.

Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—more than in the previous two years combined. www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-taipei-i...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Allies resist US push for Taiwan war commitments. Plus: China bans dual-use exports to eight Taiwan defense entities. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/allies-res...

Beijing’s coercion campaign against Taiwan is entering a more litigious phase. While military drills and cognitive warfare remain staples of its coercive playbook, China is now intensifying the systematic use of law to target Taiwan’s democracy. www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-taiwa...

China wants to add AI to the FTA with Australia. Here’s why that’s a dangerous idea, & what’s really at stake if we say yes. AI isn’t just another export sector. It’s infrastructure, ideology, & surveillance all rolled into one. My take (gift link): www.theaustralian.co...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: 'Han Kuang 41' exercises to simulate PLA invasion. Plus: Fear of China keeps world timid on Taiwan, UK ex-defense chief says. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/han-kuang-...

I just donated to cover China Digital Times’ @chinadigitaltimes.net server costs for the year. As a China researcher, I rely on their work heavily. If you care about cutting through censorship and propaganda, consider supporting them too. giving.chinadigitaltimes.net/page/FUNGRHB...

The idea that Taiwan might one day declare independence misses the core of the cross-strait issue. For many Taiwanese, especially those born after martial law, independence isn’t a destination; it’s the condition they already live under. www.aspistrategist.org.au/every-day-is...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan VP defiant after foiled Chinese plot in Prague. Plus: Taiwan puts anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer and steel. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-vp-...

'China’s use of trade bans and incentives has often been surgically targeted at politically sensitive constituencies, especially rural districts with high concentrations of fruit and fish farmers known to lean toward Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.

While China has long threatened economic punishment to deter what it sees as separatist behaviour, the past several years have shown a clear pattern: big carrots, but small sticks. www.aspistrategist.org.au/beijings-eco...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan’s recall elections could reshape its China policy Plus: UK warship's passage through Taiwan Strait monitored by PLA. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwans-re...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Huawei and SMIC blacklisted as Taiwan seeks to guard critical tech. Plus: Taiwan defense minister says 2 carriers in Pacific show China's expansionist agenda. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/huawei-and...

'In the contest between Taiwan’s limited resources and China’s coercive toolkit, the ground is shifting. The next defection may not be a surprise; it may be confirmation that Beijing’s long game is working,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.

Since 2016, Taiwan has lost the recognition of 10 countries to China; just 12 remain. The question is not whether that number will fall again, but which will be next. www.aspistrategist.org.au/taiwan-has-1...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai bolsters internal security against Chinese influence. Plus: Taiwan Communist Party leaders found not guilty in infiltration case. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-bolste...

CCP mouthpiece Andy Boreham posted about the Tiananmen Square massacre, then deleted it. Again. He pulled the same stunt last year. You’d think by now he’d know what his handlers will and won’t tolerate. But nope.

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Hegseth’s Taiwan warnings offer little new insight. Plus: China accuses Taiwan-linked group of cyberattack on mainland tech company. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/hegseths-t...

The decision in 1971 was about representation, not about sovereignty. It was a political resolution about which government should hold China’s UN seat, not a legal ruling on the status of Taiwan. www.aspistrategist.org.au/un-resolutio...

In a new Strategist special report, Bethany Allen, Danielle Cave and Adam Ziogas examine a major British university’s links to Chinese and Russian entities sanctioned for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and assisting China’s military modernisation and human rights violations. Read it now ⤵️

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai’s one-year address omits China and focuses on resilience. Plus: US lawmakers press hotel giants over ‘Taiwan, China’ label. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lais-one-y...

Through a mix of subsidised tours, university scholarships, TikTok-style propaganda and influencer outreach, Beijing is trying to win over the generation in Taiwan that has grown up with democracy, freedom and a deepening sense of Taiwanese identity separate from China. tinyurl.com/47pxrcub

'Australia may have good reasons to recalibrate its foreign and defence policies in the era of Donald Trump but these don’t include fearing that most Chinese Australians would fail to support Australia standing up to China as and when it must,' writes John Fitzgerald.

The EU just hit TikTok over transparency failures but still hasn't acted on X. If Brussels wants the DSA to have teeth, it can't keep stalling. My latest in The Strategist: www.aspistrategist.o...

I’ve started pulling together a list of Australian federal politicians on Bluesky: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... #auspol It’s very much a work in progress. If I’ve missed anyone, let me know here or drop a comment in the doc.

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai seeks strategic chip alliance to de-risk from China. Plus: Two Taiwan allies attend Beijing forum as China steps up diplomatic pressure. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/lai-seeks-...

'The Lai administration has adopted largely tactical responses to the legislature’s actions, including referring laws to the same constitutional court the legislature seeks to undermine,' writes Mark Harrison.

Nathan Attrill from @aspi-org.bsky.social (ASPI), a think tank based in Canberra, pointed out that Taiwan’s disputes over its defense and national resilience budget are increasingly weakening Taiwan’s ability to respond to threats from China. www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/20...

The State of the Strait Weekly Digest is out now - check your inboxes! • Subscribe here: stateofthestrait.substack.com/subscribe • Read this week's digest online: stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/former-tai...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visits Europe. Plus: Taiwan seeks UNESCO status for historic railway via Japan. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/former-tai...

'The perception of alignment with Beijing has deepened as the KMT, following the end of pandemic restrictions, resumed a series of high-profile visits to China, framing them as efforts to promote dialogue and improve cross-strait ties,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.

From me: Taiwan’s opposition parties—including the once-dominant KMT—now wield real power in the legislature. But their recent actions have cast serious doubt on their commitment to Taiwan’s long-term security and its ability to withstand Beijing’s growing campaign of coercion. tinyurl.com/rrbph3mk

Dr. Nathan Attrill, China analyst at the @aspi-org.bsky.social, said, “Her participation in a democracy summit, especially in Europe, will irritate Beijing, which remains highly sensitive to growing European engagement with Taiwan.” www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6104155

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan fights for a voice at the World Health Assembly. Plus: Somalia bars Taiwanese passport holders from entering the country. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-fig...

I'm quoted in this New York Times article, about Trump's fight with China. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/26/o...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taipei watching Vatican-China ties closely amid papal transition. Plus: Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council to probe ‘united front’ writing contest. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taipei-wat...

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Lai launches cybersecurity overhaul as China’s attacks surge. Plus: Beijing praises Cambodia for deporting Taiwanese nationals to China. open.substack.com/pub/stateoft...

'Taiwan has an inadvertent, rarely acknowledged role in global affairs: it’s a kind of sponge, soaking up much of China’s political, military and diplomatic efforts,' writes @nathanattrill.bsky.social.

🚨 NEW: The latest 'State of the Strait' Weekly Digest is now live: Taiwan uncovers more deep Chinese spy networks. Plus: Taiwan prosecutors indict Chinese boat captain over severed undersea cable. stateofthestrait.substack.com/p/taiwan-unc...