NATO Watch

"In a building established to prevent another world war, the president of a nuclear-armed state transformed the continued existence of another nation into an option resting upon his personal decision". Threatening the annihilation of countries is the new normal. rboneza.substack.com/p/us-roulett...

25 years later: the war on terror's methods—broad counterterrorism laws, executive war powers, mass surveillance, targeted killings and the framing of political opponents as ‘terrorists’—are common tools used by NATO democracies, autocrats and militants alike www.natowatch.org/default/2026...

30 out of 32 NATO members are state parties to the Rome Statute and maintain that the ICC serves vital geopolitical and legal interests. US efforts to dismantle the ICC need to be resisted. The leaders of the 30 must urgently issue strong, visible rebuttals. www.politico.eu/article/us-p...

In addition to demanding allies increase military spending in exchange for continued commitment to NATO, Washington is also asking for public ideological loyalty as a factor in the ongoing review of US troops stationed in Europe. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Thought-provoking analysis by Nel Bonilla: NATO 3.0 is producing a “Bunkerstate”: stronger militarily, but less sovereign and less civilian-oriented. Within this "transatlantic cage", Europe remains structurally dependent on US technology and strategy. worldlinesletter.substack.com/p/nato-30-th...

Placing the renewal of the UK’s Trident nuclear programme at the heart of reindustrialisation is not the change that Britain needs. It perpetuates three myths: the myth of independence; the myth of nuclear deterrence; and the myth of reindustrialisation rethinkingsecurity.org.uk/2026/08/07/t...

The Arctic is at the centre of a geopolitical competition between Russia, NATO states and increasingly China. This article, among other things, calls for urgent Arctic risk-reduction dialogue. thebulletin.org/2026/07/clim...

NATO’s new €27bn fuel pipeline plan may lock the UK into £2.65bn of long-term military spending — with little parliamentary scrutiny and major missed opportunities for tackling fuel poverty at home. www.natowatch.org/sites/defaul...

The price for European allies signing on to France’s 'forward deterrence' concept may be much greater than argued here. Not gaining a vote on command or policy might be galling. But the ultimate price will be paid by all of us when nuclear deterrence fails. thebulletin.org/2026/07/forw...

A ban on AI-enabled nuclear weapons should be top of the nuclear risk reduction agenda. But NATO's nuclear three (US, UK & France) strongly oppose a ban on military uses of AI, as do others (China, Russia etc). Public pressure is needed to drive change. globalnobelassembly.org/rome-declara...

NATO’s extra military spending in 2025 alone could lead to additional emissions of 44 million tCO2e and it is failing to meet its own modest climate commitments. The highest reductions in core military emissions are found in neutral Ireland and Switzerland. rethinkingsecurity.org.uk/2026/07/17/m...

A managed US exit from NATO remains improbable, although a chaotic drawdown of the US military footprint in Europe has begun shifting the alliance's architecture. Still, European allies need to be working on 'Plan B' security and intelligence frameworks www.independent.org/article/2026...

The Pew tracker of global opinions found a majority of surveyed nations—including 10 out of 12 NATO allies —now view China more positively than the United States. Public opinion has flipped heavily to China due to widespread disapproval of US foreign policy. www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/...

Britain does need to invest more in strengthening its security. But it should do so with open eyes: not as tribute to American politics, not as a subsidy to defence contractors and not as a substitute for strategy. rethinkingsecurity.org.uk/2026/07/14/b...

All these "quiet" changes to UK nuclear posture and doctrine have potentially head-splitting consequences for all of us. Nuclear weapons planning and 'deterrence' are inherently crimes against humanity due to the scale of destruction they promise. thebulletin.org/2026/07/is-l...

The Europeanisation of NATO is under way and was accelerated at the NATO Summit in Ankara. The question is therefore no longer whether NATO will become more European. It is by which path, and by when. For a detailed and unfiltered analysis of the summit: www.natowatch.org/default/2026...

The summit is again going to be primarily about managing President Trump and keeping the United States committed to the alliance. Will the calculation that the security costs of abandoning NATO exceed the political costs of sustaining it still hold post-Ankara? theconversation.com/nato-summit-...

“The defence dividend is broadly speaking a con” www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

The much-delayed UK Defence Investment Plan (DIP) continues to sink money into unneeded and costly legacy programmes. Spending on long-term nuclear capabilities will absorb the majority of the headline increase. A rethink is urgently needed. www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-eve...

As NATO seeks to become more 'European-led' a core paradox remains: Europe is rapidly scaling its military spending but still struggles to project unified political leadership. Excellent article from Alexander Graef at ELN: europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...

The cancellation of the German-French crewed combat aircraft programme could serve as a vital catalyst for Europe, freeing up immense financial capital and engineering talent to focus on next-generation uncrewed technologies and comprehensive economic security. natowatch.org/default/2026...

Both Russia and Ukraine are suffering severe, landscape-altering losses and the conflict has evolved into a condition of mutual destruction. New opportunities for a negotiated settlement or a different strategic trajectory need to be urgently created. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The penny has only partly dropped. While European confidence in US security guarantee has hit a historic low, a survey suggests, most still think US-European relations will get better after Trump. This is wishful thinking. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

The world is moving into an unstable, multipolar environment prone to technological miscalculation. Rather than focusing on raw numbers, modern rearmament centres on speed, stealth and digital integration. This creates several acute systemic risks to global stability. www.sipri.org/media/press-...

This EXPLAINER brief looks at why Norway joined France’s 'forward nuclear deterrence' initiative. It reflects European efforts at strategic autonomy, but key concerns include transparency inconsistencies, future nuclear escalation risks and the undermining of the NPT. natowatch.org/default/2026...

The real issue is not whether NATO should be part of a future freedom of navigation mission in Hormuz, but how it can prevent the US/Israel from carrying out future illegal wars of aggression and how to gain widespread international legitimacy for what comes next. www.defensenews.com/opinion/2026...

UN peacekeepers face shrinking operational budgets and highly lethal asymmetric threats. NATO could help achieve the UN’s Future-Ready Peacekeeping benchmarks by supplying C4ISR upgrades, filling critical logistical gaps and expanding its training frameworks www.theguardian.com/global-devel...

Perspective: 1. Likely 'collateral damage' as a result of interception; 2. Deaths in Romania from drone incursions zero; from road accidents 1,478 (2024); 3. NATO's RoE are adequate to meet the threat; 4. To reduce/end the threat: diplomacy to end the Russia-Ukraine war www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Research consistently shows that green investments yield a higher job multiplier than military spending. Home insulation retrofits, public transit and installing solar or wind energy—spend less on expensive equipment (weapons) and more on direct, local labour www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

Norway has been a strong proponent of humanitarian initiatives aimed at reducing global nuclear stockpiles. The decision to open talks to join France’s 'forward nuclear deterrence' entrenches the doctrine as a legitimate security measure and shifts policy away from disarmament goals. f24.my/Bx0d.BS

The US has fired more than 1,000 Tomahawks at Iran and could take until late 2030 to fully rebuild that inventory, while Patriot and THAAD replenishment is estimated to wrap up in mid- to late 2029. The inventory crisis is forcing Washington to prioritise US stocks over weapon transfers to allies.

President Trump resembles the Grand Old Duke of York: marching 5,000 US troops up the hill to Poland just weeks after ordering the same number of forces pulled out of Europe. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Guns vs. Butter? More like guns force-fed foie gras and caviar and sautéed in the world’s most expensive butter. tomdispatch.com/butter-and-s...?

America's Chief Warmonger Says the U.S. is "Checkmated" by Iran open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbe...

Brazilian delegate at the NPT Review Conference: "the indefinite possession of nuclear weapons by a few cannot remain the organizing principle of international security" reachingcriticalwill.org/images/docum...

When a state or organisation views its own population as a ‘front’ in a conflict, ‘information superiority’ is crucial to ensure that the domestic press and media echo state-sanctioned perspectives to maintain public morale or manufacture consent for a conflict. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

"Violations of the rule of law have become the air Americans breathe". Drawing parallels between the US War on Terror and the Department of Homeland Security’s current immigration crackdown. tomdispatch.com/the-global-w...

In 2025 military spending by European NATO members rose faster than at any time since 1953, reflecting the ongoing pursuit of European self-reliance alongside increasing US pressure to strengthen alliance burden sharing. www.sipri.org/media/press-...

The political and human rights that defined Starmer's legal career were won through the same types of protest his government and UK universities are seeking to limit. A resilient democracy manages dissent through transparency and the protection of civil liberties. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/...

Washington think tanks that provided the intellectual architecture for the Iraq War in 2003 are also the primary drivers of the narrative favouring military action against Iran in 2026, AI analysis finds. responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-war-thi...

The world’s top 100 oil and gas companies earned more than $30 million every hour in windfall profits during the first month of the US-Israeli war on Iran, generating an estimated $23 billion in excess earnings in March alone as oil averaged $100 a barrel. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

On Monday Spain became the first Western nation to reopen its embassy in Tehran since the ceasefire, with Ambassador Antonio Sánchez-Benedito declaring he had returned “in order to join in efforts for peace from every possible quarter.” Spain has been the most vocal NATO state against the conflict.

Total additional military spending by European NATO members to meet the 5% NATO spending goal will amount to 5,100 billion Euros (€5.1 trillion) between 2025 and 2035. rethinkingsecurity.org.uk/2026/04/15/p...

A new NATO Watch discussion paper by Michael Brzoska warns that NATO’s 2025 decision to raise military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 could more than double alliance-wide military expenditures and place a heavy burden on European NATO member states. natowatch.org/default/2026...

This Freudian slip in the NYT comes as President Trump has renewed threats to pull the US out of NATO, saying he is “absolutely” and “strongly” considering an exit while attacking allies for doing “absolutely nothing” to support (illegal) US operations in Iran. www.deccanherald.com/world/rest-o...

Should Nordic countries be backing the Europeanization of nuclear 'deterrence' or living up to their commitments to risk reduction? thebulletin.org/2026/03/the-...

The Transatlantic Relationship You Knew Is Gone www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...

Boom! Kerching! "it is worth asking who the barbarians are, when the richest country in the world fires missiles from halfway across the world at targets it knows nothing about, because its sleazy, ignorant president wants some positive headlines" open.substack.com/pub/mattcarr...