Tim Garrett

I sometimes get academic flack for my economics work having more math and physics than is palatable. I call it rigor, but here's a piece just out in the Mint Magazine about how climate change drives inflation with no equations! www.themintmagazine.com/economic-eng...

How do we objectively describe cloud fields for testing the performance of climate models? Here is a new paper where we describe new methods for showing exactly how acp.copernicus.org/articles/26/...

A terrific post on recent work with Matheus Grasselli on the thermodynamic forces driving economic inflation, particularly -- but not exclusively -- within the context of damages from climate change "The Thermodynamic Endgame of Industrial Civilization" kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/the-thermo...

The old of civilization is always falling apart even as it newly grows. Additional decay forced by climate change need only grow by 0.1%/year to lead to civilization collapse by 2070, sooner for higher rates. We will collapse slowly then all at once. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

New preprint out in @EGU_ESD showing how a global hyperinflationary shock is an expected consequence of climate change, plausibly emerging in the next few decades. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Not the first time I've posted this, but I always find it quite fascinating how well it continues to hold. For over *two thousand years*, atmospheric CO2 perturbations have scaled with the world GDP. Aren't the implications for climate change mitigation pretty simple...?

In 2017 at a small meeting in Switzerland on energy and the economy, experts scolded me that the economy would collapse from resource depletion and debt, certainly by 2025. I argued inertia would keep it growing longer (not forever). Here we are. Physics actually works! Always.

So it turns out snowflake settling is full of surprises. Not just size, not just shape, not just density, not just turbulence, but perhaps more than anything it is the mean wind horizontal winds speeds that controls how fast snowflakes fall essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....

Origami Black Hole xkcd.com/3033

New video. Our economic models are unscientific: their assumptions cannot potentially be disproved. Starting ground-up from thermodynamic principles, we can build new economic models that make the testable predictions we need to guide our economic future www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFh0...

New preprint of a submission to GRL presenting theoretical and numerical arguments that tropical cloud height can be determined from the mean tropospheric temperature profile alone essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....

We must face the limits to our economic growth. Civilization thrives on high availability of energy and material resources, but at the cost of pollution and depletion. Traditional economics trivializes these constraints and risks hastening our collapse www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip5l...

Civilization grows by efficiently using an energy surplus to transform the earth's crust into the stuff of us. However, growth has limits. Resource depletion and internal decay will tip us towards collapse. A new video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOdo...

Check out this new @YouTube channel about economic growth and decline. Civilizations rise exponentially, only to become fragile as resources deplete and decay sets in. The path of expansion, discovery, and collapse seems defining. But can innovation sustain us? www.youtube.com/channel/UCA6...

Really productive session with Steve Keen and Matheus Grasselli last week at McMaster University. We came up with a new simple formulation to predict when GDP growth will stall due to climate damages.

Off to Toronto Tuesday to reignite a very fruitful past collaboration with Profs Steve Keen and Matheus Grasselli. Our goal is to try to predict when climate change tips the GDP towards collapse and to what degree it will show up as an inflationary pressure.

What's the relationship between our energy consumption, our material footprint and our economies? I spoke with the funnest physicist I know @nephologue.bsky.social to find out. Listen now: www.planetcritical.com/p/the-thermo...

"Humanity uses its energy surplus to transform materials from one thing to another – even if we did find a way to create a renewable supply of energy, we would still run up against hard limits to material transformation: the planet is finite." www.planetcritical.com/p/the-holy-t...

Your occasional reminder that one of the longest standing predictions of climate science, which has subsequently been verified by observations, is that rainfall events will become more intense. www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/u...

What happened to Twitter? Overall intellectual level of responses to tweets there kind of plummeted it seems like all that place has left is climate denying bots

Optimism... for one side of the coin without addressing the other that fossil fuels remain useful and available. Innovating a nuclear or solar powered heat pump won't change fossil utilitiy unless we *also* stop innovation of other fossil uses www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Burning clean in the Wasatch Back

Having just attended a workshop with a gaggle of prestigious macroeconomists, I worry that a system of pursuing and maintaining academic prestige makes it harder to solve hard problems, in this case addressing the existential risk that climate change will cause mass migration and economic collapse

Headed to this workshop next week: "to explore complex climate dynamics—including nonlinear, compounding, and cascading risks—and how these dynamics will affect and may propagate in the macroeconomy" www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/the... Expect it to be interesting

Having built an off-grid (solar) power plant for a home, with its countless headaches, I appreciate much more now the miracle of the nearly infallible link from a distant power plant to the light switch. Of course, coal has it's issues, but still, power centralization is enormously impressive

From time to time I get told that we cannot model human systems as physical systems. This is ideology not science esd.copernicus.org/articles/6/6...

If we all stopped flying it would not necessarily affect CO2 emissions because the fossil fuels would remain available and useful, and now less competitive to access. Such statements need to evaluate whether the case of fewer flyers simply lets others get bigger trucks

Hello world