Nuño Sempere

Nuño Sempere

@nunosempere.com

See clearly, act fast, hold myself well. Seek self-reinforcing loops, cherish allies, and play on the side of humanity.

3K followers33 following253 posts

Fondly remembering the days where I was consuming handcrafted artisanal human tokens which didn't get to the point quickly because there were no better alternatives.

Salaries for Lightcone people for 2025, from their recently released public form 990. In particular notice Habryka at $150K (increases my respect for him, because he is paying a personal cost to produce a public good: compare with other salaries in his org.)

Actually I find it pretty heartwarming that the next generation of EA-adjacent entrepreneurs are not repeating my mistakes, and nd are doing for profits rather than non profits

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Though a problem with these types of lists is that they normally underestimate the number of events, because exhaustive compilation is hard, because some cyberattacks will not be found out about or mentioned in English-speaking press, ...

This is important because if we have the underlying frequency, we can think about how AI changes and augments bad actors, in a way that is a bit more anchored.

I wonder if Raytheon could offer Musk 50B to be CEO for a year? the prime contractors seem like they aren't doing too well producing weapons for the Iran war.

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Conversely if you just have the self-reinforcing loop then you just have a Disneyland without children, just evil. An intelligence explosion of worthless computation

The balance between the two is difficult to compute in practice, but leans towards self-reinforcement, towards asymptotic ponzi schemes if you math it out.

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Sometimes I think I'm reasonably well off financially and then I talk to a Mnenonite who is employing 250 people and has 18 gas stations and I realize how true family wealth looks like.

I also just view it as really adversarial when people lie to my face, or when I perceive that they do so. The emotional trigger there is really quite strong. It is also useful in other contexts though

I've been experimenting with making some stock bets based on stuff I read on twitter; mostly it's been a wash, but good for updating that a) people don't know what they're talking about, b) shooting stuff out and selective reporting of wins is rampant

Kinda cute that you have a nominally democratic regime but then the mechanism you use to actually coordinate people about what to do is finance.

Nuño Sempere reposted

Replying to @bisks.net

Make list of fundamental human needs and invest in things which are complements to intelligence.

The thing about shying away from harsh truths is that eventually you might get outlapped by those who don't, and the equilibrium where this doesn't happen seems fragile. This worries me.

Re: the Washington post Subscriptions of about 150 usd, 2.5M subscribers = 375M in revenues If the paper is losing 100M expenses are 475M. Cutting 1/3rd of the cost brings cost to 316M, in line with revenues

Talked with a friend who had had worked on a really cool project last year and is now feeling less excited by his more normal one now. Interesting shade of grief.

Vibecoded some simulation software this morning, thought it was neat. You can see the repo here: <https://github.com/NunoSempere/who-does-what>

So do you all use your kin groups and extended families skillfully? I feel like I should be giving my father stock tips but actually he is much better at investing than I.