Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂

@nwhyte.bsky.social

He/him. International affairs strategist & expert, science fiction fan, psephologist; posts personal. Will block rude people and bigots. http://fromtheheartofeurope.eu

4K followers1.8K following5.6K posts

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

Those of you who are in or near Brussels and have an interest in EU Enlargement should consider coming to this High-Level panel on the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU's Single Market. It's next Tuesday just after lunch in the Sofitel. www.strategers.org/gradual-inte...

strategers.orgGradual Integration of the Western Balkans into the Single Market: Accelerating Convergence with the EU - StrategersHigh-Level Policy Dialogue, Brussels 3 Nov 2026
Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

Five Shakes of the Dragon’s Tail ☋ Links about China and EU-China relations that caught my eye this week 1) Top analysis from (fellow Ulsterman) @fbermingham.bsky.social, Yanmei Xie and Jason Mardell on the state of play after the Šefčovič deal and EU summit. open.substack.com/pub/sinifica...

open.substack.comEU-China Debrief with Yanmei Xie and Finbarr BerminghamWatch now (60 mins) | Germany’s shift, the instruments package and whether the hybrid deal can be replicated.
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Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

Five Shakes of the Dragon’s Tail ☋ Links about China and EU-China relations that caught my eye this week 1) Top analysis from (fellow Ulsterman) @fbermingham.bsky.social, Yanmei Xie and Jason Mardell on the state of play after the Šefčovič deal and EU summit. open.substack.com/pub/sinifica...

open.substack.comEU-China Debrief with Yanmei Xie and Finbarr BerminghamWatch now (60 mins) | Germany’s shift, the instruments package and whether the hybrid deal can be replicated.
Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

2) @alanbeattie.bsky.social is sceptical in the FT: “The meeting of EU member states last Thursday and Friday made the requisite scary noises towards China over trade, roughly the equivalent of putting a sheet over their heads and going “woo-ooo” on Halloween.” www.ft.com/content/7dbe...

ft.comThe self-destructive wishful thinking about European autos and tradeFrance and Germany have synthesised their bad ideas about cars into a terrible plan
Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

3) Don’t forget about Central Asia: Vusal Guliyev reports on intensified logistics coordination between China, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. cacianalyst.org/publications...

cacianalyst.orgAzerbaijan, Kazakhstan and China Coordinate Logistics Along The Middle Corridor<p dir="ltr"><em>By: Vusal Guliyev  </em></p> <p dir="ltr"&amp...
Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

Left home 0754 79 bus at 0803 (5 mins late) Arr Leuven 0826 (6 mins late) Still caught P7401 at 0831 (3 mins late) Arr Br Centraal 0859 (7 mins late) Got 38 bus 0908 Arr Wetenschap / Science 0915 In office 0918 84 mins door to door.

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Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

Left home 0754 78 bus 0759, 1 min late arr Leuven station 0822, 2 mins late P7402 0829, 1 min late arr Brussel Centraal 0854, 2 mins late 38 bus 0902 Wetenschap / Science 0911 In office 0915 81 mins door to door

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

I see that Pat Cullen, MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, is standing for the Assembly in South Belfast; and Chris Hazzard, MP for South Down, is standing for the Assembly in Strangford.

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Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

If Cullen does win, it is most likely to be at Hargey's expense, rather than anyone else's. Hazzard's move is more likely than Cullen's to deliver a seat, and the fact that his actual home is part of the area moved from South Down to Strangford certainly helps…

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

…but SF would need to a) outpoll the SDLP (which I think is more likely than not) and b) get the majority of SDLP transfers (which I think is less likely). The SDLP have the better chance of making a Nationalist gain in Strangford, but only if they can beat SF.

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

I see that Pat Cullen, MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone, is standing for the Assembly in South Belfast; and Chris Hazzard, MP for South Down, is standing for the Assembly in Strangford.

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

If either is elected and takes their seat, there would be a by-election for the Westminster constituency they currently represent. Both are members of Sinn Féin. Neither of these moves is without risk. SF don't have an easy path to a second seat in South Belfast.

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

The best they ever got under the old boundaries was 20% in the last Assembly election, only 1.2 quotas, and the recent boundary change is not favorable to them. I tend to think that Deirdre Hargey keeping SF’s South Belfast seat and Cullen staying in FST is the more likely outcome.

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

Left home 0754 79 bus at 0803 (5 mins late) Arr Leuven 0826 (6 mins late) Still caught P7401 at 0831 (3 mins late) Arr Br Centraal 0859 (7 mins late) Got 38 bus 0908 Arr Wetenschap / Science 0915 In office 0918 84 mins door to door.

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Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

Left home 0754 79 bus at 0803 (5 mins late) Arr Leuven 0826 (6 mins late) Still caught P7401 at 0831 (3 mins late) Arr Br Centraal 0859 (7 mins late) Got 38 bus 0908 Arr Wetenschap / Science 0915 In office 0918 84 mins door to door.

Nicholas Whyte 白怀珂
@nwhyte.bsky.social

Left office 1745 At Lux station 1752 IC 2117 on time (unusually!) at 1756 Arr Ottignies 1817, 2 mins late S20 3068 dep on time 1825 Arr OH 1858 on time home 1914 89 minutes door to door