OSW - Centre for Eastern Studies

Marco Rubio’s visit to Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 highlights Central Asia’s growing importance to the US Growing US engagement offers Central Asian countries an opportunity to further diversify their economic ties & reduce their dependence on 🇨🇳 and 🇷🇺 By OSW's Daria Zielińska ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Albania🇦🇱 escalation of protests ❝Many Albanians accept the violent nature of the student protests.❞ Michał Kucharski has an explanation⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Russian government reshuffle: further mobilisation of resources for a protracted war 🔵The Finance Ministry, which is responsible for securing the funds needed to sustain the war, will gain influence in🇷🇺. Maria Domańska & Iwona Wiśniewska have more ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

🔵 Russia🇷🇺–US🇺🇸 talks: no breakthrough, no concessions 🔵 Russia will use further talks – or even mere declarations of its willingness to engage – primarily as tools of manipulation and influence. 🔵 OSW's Witold Rodkiewicz has more information ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plCzech municipal and Senate elections: a warning for the governing coalitionA week-long series of elections to the Czech Senate (the upper house) and local councils concluded on 17 October. One-third of the Senate is elected every two years for a term of six years. Of the 27 ...

🔵 Czech municipal and Senate elections: a warning for the governing coalition 🇨🇿 The governing coalition’s parties have received a warning in their first major electoral test a year after the Chamber of Deputies election. 🔵 OSW's Krzysztof Dębiec has the details ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

Czech municipal and Senate elections: a warning for the governing coalition 🇨🇿The governing coalition’s parties have received a warning in their first major electoral test a year after the Chamber of Deputies election. Krzysztof Dębiec has the details⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plAzerbaijan–France: a chance for a resetOn 23 September, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev pardoned French national Martin Ryan, who had been sentenced in March this year to 10 years in prison on espionage charges that included activities ...

🔵Azerbaijani-French relations have been marked by serious tensions for several years, with Baku accusing Paris of supporting Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh. @Woj_Gorecki & @kwasylewsky have more⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plData centres in Russia: the consequences of Ukrainian drone strikesBetween 7 and 11 October, Ukrainian drones struck three data centres belonging to the Russian technology company Yandex. On 14 October, another data centre in Balakovo (Saratov Oblast), owned by Sberb...

➡️Data centres in Russia 🇷🇺: the consequences of Ukrainian drone strikes 🔵Attacks on data centres are worsening Russia’s technological decline, which has continued since the start of the full-scale war. 🔵By OSW's Iwona Wiśniewska ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plDesigned out: inside China's campaign to replace Western technology in its critical energy infrastructureEvidence from 293 procurements reveals the spread, targets and scale of China’s campaign to replace foreign technology in its wind farms.

🔵We highly recommend our latest report: 📗Designed out. On China’s 🇨🇳 campaign to replace Western technology in its critical infrastructure ➡️ osw.waw.pl/designed-out/ 🔵Also featured in Bloomberg ⤵️ bloomberg.com/news/article...

osw.waw.plSaxony-Anhalt: AfD and BSW demand an end to aid for UkraineAt a special session on 14 October, the parliament of Saxony-Anhalt adopted a joint resolution submitted by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), entitled ‘Peace ...

Saxony-Anhalt: AfD and BSW demand an end to aid for Ukraine The decision to convene a special session of the Landtag specifically to discuss policy towards 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇦 reflects negative public sentiment in Saxony-Anhalt regarding support for Ukraine By OSW's Kamil Frymark www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plMore resolve than resources: Romania and the drone threatIn recent months, the number of violations of Romanian airspace and territorial waters by Russian drones, and occasionally also by Ukrainian ones, has increased markedly. Between 1 January and 27 Sept...

🔵More resolve than resources: Romania 🇷🇴 and the drone threat ➡️Despite these risks and the steadily growing number of incidents, Bucharest was slow and hesitant to put in place an effective system for defending its airspace. 🔵More by OSW's Kamil Całus ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plTrump–Putin agreement on diesel suppliesOn 9 October, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a licence authorising transactions involving the sale, delivery, offloading or import of diesel fuel from Russ...

Trump–Putin agreement on diesel supplies ⛽️The agreed volumes of🇷🇺Russian diesel, even if delivered in full, will not change conditions in the🇷🇺US and global markets in the short term. Full analysis by Filip Rudnik⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plContinuity or a change in tone? Israel ahead of the parliamentary electionsOn 17 July, the Knesset voted to dissolve itself at the end of its term, paving the way for elections on 27 October. This was the first Israeli parliament since the 1980s to complete a full four-year ...

Continuity or a change in tone? Israel🇮🇱 ahead of the parliamentary elections Given the current political landscape and public sentiment, even a change of government is unlikely to produce a major overhaul of state policy. More insight by Marek Matusiak⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plKosovo: former guerrilla leaders sentenced to lengthy prison termsFormer Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi, one of the leaders of the guerrilla Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK) and its political wing, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), has been sentenced to 25 years in p...

Kosovo 🇽🇰 former guerrilla leaders sentenced to lengthy prison terms 🔵The most significant outrage in 🇽🇰 stems from perceptions that the sentences on UÇK leaders are disproportionate compared to those handed down for Serbian crimes. 🔵By OSW's Michał Kucharski ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

➡️Shock on the Turkish 🇹🇷 stock market: another crisis of confidence 🔵The stock market scandal undermines the government’s narrative that confidence in the Turkish economy is being restored. 🔵More insight by OSW's Adam Michalski ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

🔵 Latvian 🇱🇻 parliamentary election: historic victory for the United List 🔵 The incoming government plans to reform public finances, reduce bureaucracy, attract investment, and strengthen the uniformed services. 🔵 Bartosz Chmielewski has more ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plGermany’s new heating law: rethinking the Wärmewende at the cost of slower decarbonisationFriedrich Merz’s government has pushed through a sweeping overhaul of the so-called heating law, the central policy instrument for transforming the heating sector. Its previous version was one of the ...

Germany’s 🇩🇪 new heating law: rethinking the Wärmewende at the cost of slower decarbonisation 🔵The new framework raises a number of serious concerns relating to the challenge of securing adequate supplies of low-emission alternative fuels. 🔵By OSW's Michał Kędzierski ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plReinventing the wheel: the US–Denmark–Greenland agreementOn 22 September, after eight months of negotiations, the governments of the United States, the Kingdom of Denmark and Greenland concluded an arrangement supplementing the 1951 Agreement on the Defence...

Reinventing the wheel: the US–Denmark–Greenland agreement 🇺🇸🇩🇰🇬🇱The United States has suffered significant reputational damage in Denmark and Greenland, as well as among its other allies. Piotr Szymański & Andrzej Kohut have all the details⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plKremlin handpicks new State Duma deputies in ‘special election operation’Between 18 and 20 September, Russia held parliamentary elections to determine the make-up of the new 450-member State Duma, the lower house of parliament. The vote coincided with an annual series of r...

🇷🇺Kremlin handpicks new State Duma deputies in ‘special election operation’ According to independent estimates, United Russia’s actual share of the vote may have been closer to 34%, with turnout below 40%. By Maria Domańska ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plFurther disruption to Middle Eastern oil suppliesOn 10 September, following attacks by Iran-aligned forces and damage to infrastructure, Saudi Aramco shut down the East-West pipeline. On 15 September, reports emerged that a number of crude oil deliv...

🔵Further disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies ➡️The planned resumption of pipeline flows in a few weeks does not guarantee by itself that crude exports along this route will return to previous levels. 🔵More by OSW's Agata Łoskot-Strachota ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plSouth Korea–Central Asia Summit: critical minerals take centre stageOn 16 September, Seoul hosted the first summit between the leaders of South Korea and the five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (the C5). The summ...

➡️South Korea–Central Asia Summit: critical minerals take centre stage 🔵Central Asian leaders are stepping up efforts to broaden their countries’ network of external partners and reduce their dependence on China. 🔵By Michał Bogusz & Daria Zielińska ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plLatvian parliamentary election: Prime Minister seeks re-electionThe United List (Latvian: Apvienotais saraksts, AS), led by incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, is likely to win the 3 October election to the Saeima, Latvia’s 100-seat unicameral parliament.

Latvian🇱🇻 parliamentary election: Prime Minister seeks re-election 🔵The intensity of Russian and Belarusian disinformation during the election campaign has remained broadly consistent with that recorded in previous electoral cycles. 🔵By Bartosz Chmielewski ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plGermany and the US expand defence industry cooperationOn 16 September, during a visit to the Pentagon, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) and his US counterpart, Pete Hegseth, signed a declaration on closer cooperation between the two countrie...

🔵Germany 🇩🇪 and the US 🇺🇸 expand defence industry cooperation 🔵Germany is the second-largest buyer of US arms in Europe after Poland, with acquisitions focused particularly on the air domain. Lidia Gibadło & Jacek Tarociński have more ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plWartime economies of scale: €150 billion for defence in the EU’s 2028–2034 budgetThe European Commission intends to increase funding for defence-related purposes to approximately €150 billion in its proposal for the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). As part of its r...

23 Sept

Wartime economies of scale: €150 billion for defence in the EU’s🇪🇺 2028–2034 budget On economic efficiency grounds, the Commission expects member states to make greater use of joint procurement and collaborative defence projects. By OSW's Łukasz Maślanka ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plMoldova: taxation as a tool in reintegrating TransnistriaOn 1 September, for the first time, Chişinău mandated businesses operating in separatist Transnistria to pay VAT and excise duties into the Moldovan budget on certain goods they import. The new regula...

21 Sept

Moldova🇲🇩: taxation as a tool in reintegrating Transnistria The imposition of VAT and excise duties on certain imports into Transnistria forms part of the ongoing process of the region’s economic reintegration with the rest of the country. By OSW's Kamil Całus ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plUS sanctions bill on Russia: a political tool with uncertain prospects for implementationOn 16 September, the US House of Representatives passed a bill imposing sanctions on Russia, originally proposed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The vote completed the bill’s passage through Congr...

20 Sept

US🇺🇸 sanctions bill on Russia🇷🇺: a political tool with uncertain prospects for implementation 🔵The extent to which the Graham bill is implemented will depend on the president’s discretion. 🔵More by Iwona Wiśniewska, Filip Rudnik and Andrzej Kohut ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plOn a war footingContents MAIN POINTS INTRODUCTION

16 Sept

On a war footing. Changes in French🇫🇷 security strategy after Russia’s🇷🇺 invasion of Ukraine🇺🇦 Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine provided the impetus to accelerate reforms in French security policy. More in the report by OSW's Łukasz Maślanka & Jacek Tarociński ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plAmendment to China’s National Defence Mobilisation LawOn 31 August, Xi Jinping promulgated an amendment to the 2010 National Defence Mobilisation Law of the People’s Republic of China (中华人民共和国国防动员法), which will enter into force on 1 October this year. Th...

15 Sept

🔵Amendment to China’s🇨🇳 National Defence Mobilisation Law ➡️For the first time, the law defines mobilisation and states that its purpose is ‘to ensure a rapid transition between peace and war’. 🔵More insight by Michał Bogusz ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

youtu.beDoes everyone hate Russia? Russophobia explainedYouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

14 Sept

Russophobia - Does the West hate Russia? 🛑Is anti-Russian sentiment a real problem? Is it undeserved? Or is Russophobia part of the Kremlin's propaganda? OSW's Russia dept. has all the answers⤵️ youtu.be/v-gobZaVUzY

osw.waw.plEstonia: presidential election in the shadow of a political crisisOn 2 September, parliament elected Ülle Madise President of Estonia. Her candidacy was supported by 71 of the 101 MPs, with 68 votes required for election. Madise will take office on 12 October after ...

14 Sept

➡️Estonia 🇪🇪: presidential election in the shadow of a political crisis 🔵Madise will cooperate with the government on both foreign and domestic policy. Her priority will be domestic affairs, with which she is much more familiar. 🔵By Bartosz Chmielewski ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plFire at Amur Gas Chemical Complex leaves 15 casualties ahead of Russian-Chinese project launchOn 25 August, a fire broke out at the Amur Gas Chemical Complex, which is still under construction. The complex is located near the town of Svobodny, outside Blagoveshchensk in Russia’s Far East, arou...

11 Sept

➡️Fire at Amur Gas Chemical Complex leaves 15 casualties ahead of Russian🇷🇺-Chinese🇨🇳 project launch ➡️The incident at Sinopec’s largest project in Russia is another setback for the venture. 🔵By OSW's Iwona Wiśniewska ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plUkraine: criminal group within the Prosecutor General’s OfficeOn 4 September, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) searched the office of Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko. On the same day, the agency announced that it had carried out Operati...

11 Sept

🔵Ukraine 🇺🇦: criminal group within the Prosecutor General’s Office 🔵The scandal has exposed the vast scale of corruption in the Prosecutor General’s Office and weakened President Zelensky’s position. 🔵More insight by Marcin Jędrysiak ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plWitkoff and Kushner in Moscow and Kyiv: White House resumes peace mediationOn 5 September, President Donald Trump’s special envoys, Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner, visited Moscow, resuming efforts to bring Russia’s war against Ukraine to an end after a hiatus of more than ...

10 Sept

🔵Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow and Kyiv: White House resumes peace mediation 🔵Following the meeting, no information emerged to suggest that Moscow is ready to compromise and that a ceasefire could be reached quickly. Our OSW experts have the details ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plGermany: AfD scores landslide victory in Saxony-AnhaltThe AfD won the parliamentary election in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September, securing 43.8% of the vote – 23 percentage points more than in 2021. This gave the party 39 seats in the 83-seat Landtag. The CD...

8 Sept

Germany: AfD scores landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt 🇩🇪The AfD owes its success primarily to the popularity of its charismatic lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, disappointment with the CDU government and a desire for change. Kamil Frymark has more⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

youtu.beState of Ukraine - the army, the economy and the corruptionYouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

7 Sept

The State of Ukraine🇺🇦 🔵Experts from the OSW Ukrainian team explain how well Ukraine is coping politically, economically and militarily after over four years of full-scale🇷🇺Russian aggression⤵️ youtu.be/UFyJTJLbGDA

osw.waw.plAnything is possible: AfD sets its sights on power in Saxony-AnhaltThe elections scheduled for 6 September in Saxony-Anhalt will be crucial for Germany’s political system. For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Alternative for Germa...

4 Sept

🇩🇪Anything is possible: AfD sets its sights on power in Saxony-Anhalt 🔵The AfD’s success is primarily due to its strong and lasting local roots, its appeal to East German identity and its highly effective online communication. More from Kamil Frymark⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plUkrainian advances north of Lyman. Day 1651 of the war

3 Sept

The war in Ukraine Since the beginning of🇷🇺Russia's aggression in🇺🇦Ukraine, OSW's Security & Defence dept. has provided regular roundups of the news from the conflict. Check out our website to keep up to date. 🔵The latest report is in the link below⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

youtu.beCIA director visits Moscow - What's going on? Is Russia planning something big?YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

2 Sept

Is Russia planning something? 🇷🇺Why did CIA director John Ratcliffe visit Moscow? Is Russia planning to invade NATO? Or will there be a mobilisation in Russia? 🔵OSW director Wojciech Konończuk answers these questions⤵️ youtu.be/huXGXDGooHg

osw.waw.plIn the service of the future

1 Sept

In the service of the future - United Germany’s historical policy 🔵In this collection edited by OSW's Anna Kwiatkowska & Wojciech Konończuk we discuss the role🇩🇪Germany's inconvenient past plays in its current policy of memory.⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

31 Aug

👋We track the delivery of military support for #ukraine and we recently updated our arms deliveries monitor of the major military equipment categories 🔵Find the most important details here⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/armsdeliv...

osw.waw.plosw.waw.pl

youtube.comCrypto and the Kremlin.YouTube video by Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

28 Aug

Crypto and the Kremlin 💰OSW's short guide to Putin's Russia's approach to Cryptocurrencies. #Bitcoin ⤵️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jl84...

osw.waw.plMagyar’s first 100 days in office: Hungary’s transformation gathers pacePéter Magyar’s first hundred days in office have marked Hungary’s most significant political shift since Fidesz came to power in 2010. A constitutional majority, combined with high levels of public tr...

27 Aug

Magyar’s first 100 days in office: Hungary’s transformation gathers pace 🇭🇺The early termination of President Tamás Sulyok’s term in office was the most controversial element of the reform. More details from Ilona Gizińska⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plTurkey: selective amnesty for PKK membersOn 10 August, Turkey’s parliament passed a law establishing a legal mechanism enabling former Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants to return to civilian life. The legislation was backed by the gov...

26 Aug

Turkey 🇹🇷: selective amnesty for PKK members ➡️The law does not address the Kurdish movement’s key political demands and does not guarantee the success of the peace process. ➡️By Zuzanna Krzyżanowska and Adam Michalski. www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plFollowing Beijing’s lead, the Kremlin hardens its stance towards TokyoIn the first half of August, the Kremlin sent Tokyo a strong political signal regarding the dispute over the Southern Kuril Islands (Japan’s Northern Territories). Between 4 and 12 August, Russia’s Pa...

25 Aug

Following Beijing’s lead, the Kremlin hardens its stance towards Tokyo The deterioration in relations with Japan, provoked by the Kremlin, comes amid renewed tensions in Sino-Japanese relations. By Witold Rodkiewicz ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plThe Ukrainian-Russian battle of the flags. The offensive that never wasOn 12 August, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine had recaptured 745 km² of territory and 26 settlements in a large-scale offensive operation conducted by the Air Assault Forces togeth...

24 Aug

🔵The Ukrainian🇺🇦Russian🇷🇺 battle of the flags. The offensive that never was 🔵Reports of a large-scale Ukrainian offensive operation in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast do not correspond to the situation on the ground. Andrzej Wilk has more⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plThe Mecca agreement: a loose alliance between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and TurkeyOn 7 August, in Mecca, Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, which aims to enhance collective deterrence and improve coordination and integration of the three cou...

21 Aug

🔵The Mecca agreement: a loose alliance between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey 🔵Regardless of its political and symbolic significance, the Mecca agreement does not currently represent a genuine military alliance. 🔵By OSW's Krzysztof Strachota & Adam Michalski ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plFor and even against: 100 days of Radev’s government in Bulgaria16 August marked 100 days since Rumen Radev’s government was sworn in. Despite its pre-election promises, the single-party cabinet of the conservative-social Progressive Bulgaria (PB) has so far taken...

18 Aug

For and even against: 100 days of Radev’s government in Bulgaria 🇧🇬Radev’s government supports further🇪🇺EU enlargement... and is unlikely to oppose the opening of further negotiating clusters with🇺🇦Ukraine and Moldova🇲🇩. Jan Nowinowski has more⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

osw.waw.plZelensky in Belgrade: Kyiv’s interests, a fig leaf for Vučić and outrage in KosovoOn 7–8 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made his first visit to Serbia since taking office. His meetings with President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Đuro Macut focused on economic...

17 Aug

➡️Zelensky in Belgrade 🇷🇸: Kyiv’s interests, a fig leaf for Vučić and outrage in Kosovo 🔵Zelensky’s visit to Belgrade was aimed at ensuring the continued supply of Serbian arms. 🔵Jan Nowinowski & Kacper Sienicki have more⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

13 Aug

🔵Armed drone found at Leipzig Airport 🔵German 🇩🇪 airports regularly report unauthorised drone activity, although in most cases the authorities are unable to identify either the operators or their motives. By OSW's Kamil Frymark ⤵️ osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...

11 Aug

Latvia 🇱🇻: border closure with Belarus emerges as an election campaign issue 🔵The Interior Ministry’s actions are likely to raise doubts within the EU about the consistency and predictability of Latvia’s policy. 🔵By Bartosz Chmielewski ⤵️ www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacj...