Palma Polyak

Palma Polyak

@palmapolyak.bsky.social

Senior Researcher @ Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne | IPE & Geoeconomics | Trade imbalances 🚢 & EV battery value chains 🔋 https://palmapolyak.weebly.com/research.html

7.6K followers1.4K following360 posts

I'd read the leak less as a message about Orbán's relevance & more as a message to Europe & Ukraine about Trump making deals over their heads with Putin & Xi. And a middle finger to multilateralism I can't see UK & FRA going along with this (& others have even more to lose in this new-Yalta world)

Katalin Halmai@eublogo.bsky.social

🇺🇳 I wouldn’t dismiss the @wsj.com story about Trump pushing Orbán for UN chief. The leak itself may be the message: Orbán lost an election, but not his powerful backers or international clout. It may also signal that Trump puts ideology over diplomatic convention when choosing the next UN SecGen.

Palma Polyak reposted

Different countries, different elections. But a year that has seen Orbán, Bolsonaro and Vučić defeated (and the GOP likely routed at the midterms next week) doesn't exactly fit the narrative of a relentless rightwards shift. Good candidates, campaigns, movements can still win.

Palma Polyak reposted

1/ Dan Wang’s NYT essay on TSMC's Arizona plant argues that TSMC is doing for America what Apple did for China. But the analogy rests on two assumptions and it's not clear that either one of them is holding. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/o...

Hungary’s 1956 revolution against Soviet oppression earned the world’s respect, only for a Moscow-aligned autocrat to squander that legacy decades later. As we commemorate the uprising today, it feels good to finally give the world reasons for hope again.

Palma Polyak reposted

I had a brilliant time at Harvard this week! Massive thanks to Jason Beckfield for bringing me out to present at The Climate Sociology Lab and The Salata Institute! Pure fun. It was exciting to learn about the interdisciplinary place-based work many are doing here.

What a piece of news to wake up to György Matolcsy, Hungary’s former central bank governor, has been taken into custody as a crackdown on Orbán-era corruption networks intensifies The case centers on €500 million in public funds siphoned off through opaque investments & real estate deals telex.hu

Palma Polyak reposted

🔥BREAKING György Matolcsy, former central bank governor and one of Viktor Orbán’s closest allies, who also served as his economy minister, has reportedly been detained on suspicion of economic fraud causing significant financial loss and using a forged private document, telex.hu reports. 2/1

Palma Polyak reposted

It's almost as though this was foreseeable ... iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu

iranwarcost.watson.brown.eduIran War Energy Cost TrackerTracks the extra cost paid by U.S. consumers for gasoline and diesel since the Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, compared against a no-war counterfactual baseline.
Steve Rattner@steverattner.bsky.social

Real wages are shrinking year-over-year for the sixth month in a row. The Iran War brought an end to three years of real wage growth.

Palma Polyak reposted

terrible news of Perry Mehrling passing. RIP to a wonderful scholar & teacher who demystified the global financial crisis that wrecked a generation. He has left an oeuvre with a powerful message: Money is a hierarchy of promises & payments, anchored by central bank money sites.bu.edu/perry/lectur...

Palma Polyak reposted

What struck me immediately in German academia was the near absence of scholars from the former GDR (something I’m attuned to, as an Eastern European). The transition shock feels under-researched, with many stories untold. On this Day of German Unity, let's also remember the work that lies ahead.

Palma Polyak reposted

OK so three stories there: 1️⃣The good news : ACC is finally ratcheting up production of its made in 🇫🇷 batteries; 2️⃣The other good news: demand for EV has exploded alongside gas prices; 3️⃣The bad news: ACC is struggling to produce more than its original target, creating bottlenecks for Stellantis

lemonde.frStellantis va arrêter momentanément quatre usines en France et placer plus de 8 000 salariés en chômage partielLe constructeur automobile met en cause les problèmes d’approvisionnement des batteries électriques de son fournisseur ACC. Mais il cherche aussi à réduire ses stocks pour préserver sa trésorerie.

Palma Polyak reposted

Why Carbon Taxes Failed is on the road! See book talk dates below (more to come). Next week is Central European University and Copenhagen Business School! Can't wait to see some dear friends at both places <3

Palma Polyak reposted

🚨 New: Green industrial policy in backdrop of EU recovery funds In 2020, Covid froze Italy's economy. 🇪🇺 agreed on 🇮🇹's Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR): €194.4B, largest share of NextGenEU. The PNRR is now almost over, at last instalment. What did it actually do for climate & energy? 🔋🪡

Palma Polyak reposted

European Commission officials arguing that a customs union is the best way for the UK to avoid 'Made in Europe' barriers. But the issue seems to be Chinese investment in UK plants, not rerouted Chinese imports. www.ft.com/content/5453...

ft.comEU urges UK to raise tariffs on Chinese cars to avoid ‘made in Europe’ barriersLondon has lobbied intensely to secure equal treatment for British products but continues to rule out a customs union

Palma Polyak reposted

Bloomberg: BYD’s overseas revenue exceeded what it made at home for the first time, illustrating why Chinese carmakers have to sell outside of China. First-half sales from overseas rose 34% to account for 53% of the total, while they shrank 31% in Greater China. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.comBYD Shows Chinese Carmakers’ Only Way Out of Slump Is AbroadBYD Co.’s overseas revenue exceeded what it made at home for the first time, helping end one of the company’s longest profit slumps and illustrating why Chinese carmakers have no choice but to try the...

Palma Polyak reposted

Profit share of US GDP with period averages. the profit share is a political outcome. note relative stability of postwar compromise era vs more violent, financial crisis driven swings after the 1990s. last 2 periods consistent rise so same color, but different dynamics. source: FRED.

Palma Polyak reposted

(1/2) The Iran war is a redistribution machine: Big oil profits have shot up to historic highs. Our research shows that 50% of fossil fuel profits go to the richest 1% in the U.S. The rich are the ultimate beneficiaries of the war windfalls.

Hungary's new government is tested very early. Paks nuclear plant is about to go offline for the first time in 44 years because the Danube is drying up. That's nearly half the country's electricity. Collapsed supply & gas prices spiking throughout the region. Just brutal. apnews.com/article/hung...

apnews.comHungary braces for a full shutdown of the Paks nuclear plant as the Danube River hits record lowsHungary's only nuclear power plant is shutting down for the first time due to record-low water levels on the Danube River.

... there is always the import route, but the whole region is in the same bind—Romania's nuclear is down (1400 MW gone), gas is unaffordable due to the stupid Iran war & hydro across the Balkans is collapsed. Every country prioritizing its own consumption.

Palma Polyak reposted

Chinese & German carmakers have stepped up cooperation on autonomous driving despite wider trade tensions BYD, Geely, SAIC, Xpeng, Xiaomi, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, VW, Porsche met in Beijing to discuss common standards for smart cars, automated parking, cross-border data

Palma Polyak reposted

1/3 Yasheng Huang on China's K-shaped economy and the K-shaped focus of its policymakers: "China has a K-shaped economy — its upper micro-technology arm pointing up, toward technology, and its lower macro arm [almost everything else] pointing down." yashenghuang.substack.com/p/chinas-k-s...

yashenghuang.substack.comChina’s K-shaped economy and its K-shaped Policy RegimeA world-class technology sector sitting on top of a weak economy — and a policy machinery to keep it that way

Palma Polyak reposted

Das war kein "Angriff auf uns alle". Das war ein Angriff auf queeres Leben. Ein Leben das täglich zahlreichen Angriffen ausgesetzt ist und gegen Nazis, Islamisten und auch gegen "die Mitte" verteidigt werden muss. #CSDBerlin

Palma Polyak reposted

Being queer means being the target of violence. Every queer person knows this. It's deeply engraved in who we are. We live with it every day of our lives. Not because of terrorism but because it is structurally enshrined in our "free" societies. Violence against queer people is not an exception ...

Palma Polyak reposted

1/9 Sébastien Jean and Jean-Pierre Landau: "In terms of welfare, European consumers should welcome cheap electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels that are subsidized directly or indirectly by Chinese workers and taxpayers. But Europeans instead see... www.ifri.org/en/media-ext...

ifri.orgRethinking Global ImbalancesToday’s global imbalances, starting with China's massive trade surplus, are not simply the result of poor macroeconomic coordination. Rather, they reflect long-term strategic thinking and a departure ...

Palma Polyak reposted

Yes. This point is not sufficiently recognized in the global imbalances debate. If you think your CA deficit is excessive and caused by factors outside your borders, you should tax or otherwise discourage capital inflows. Tariffs are a very blunt tool at best. +

Michael Pettis@michaelpettis.bsky.social

8/9 I agree, and this suggests that rather than encourage capital inflows, economies that want to strengthen their manufacturing and productive sectors and to benefit workers by raising productivity and wages should consider capital controls as a far more effective tool than tariffs.

Palma Polyak reposted

Pornainen, Finland (pop 5,000) is now heated by a silo of crushed soapstone. I spoke to CNBC about it. 100 MWh, charged when power is cheap, emissions down ~70%. Days to weeks of storage, no critical minerals. www.cnbc.com/2026/07/25/f...

cnbc.comFinland’s radical answer to renewable energy’s biggest headache: The world’s largest sand batteryA small Finnish town has turned to the world's largest commercial sand battery to tackle a major hurdle in the energy transition: intermittency.

Palma Polyak reposted

Big week for EU digital laws: After big fines for Google and AliExpress, the commission has now found TikTok in breach of Digital Services Act for failing to ensure safe accounts for minors

Palma Polyak reposted

Valencia newspaper Las Provincias reports that Pedro Sanchez will today be at a factory to announce a deal whereby Ford sells part of its Almussafes plant near the Spanish city to Geely to manufacture electric vehicles in Spain

Palma Polyak reposted

SCMP: “What we are seeing is strong external demand alongside weak domestic consumption, with technology and future-oriented industries powering ahead while spending on housing and everyday goods remains tepid.” sc.mp/bz2oz?utm_so...

sc.mpShanghai beats GDP estimates with 5.6% growth – but two-speed recovery persistsOfficial data points to a resilient tech-led rebound even as prominent economists warn household spending remains stubbornly cautious.

Palma Polyak reposted

1/ Happy to announce that my paper looking at the evolution of Romania’s growth model and macroeconomic policy regime over the past 15 years, using an import-adjusted GDP decomposition approach, has been published on the Commission’s website. Long 🧵.

EU Economy and Finance@eu-economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

🔎 What has been driving Romania’s growth since 2010? In our newest publication, we explore the role of imports, exports & demand - as well as the challenges lying ahead. 🔗 Read more: link.europa.eu/y76NDC

Palma Polyak reposted

🇭🇺⚖️ Sulyok does the paradox and signs the constitutional amendment that's removing him from office. He really had no choice; the Tisza majority would do him in one way or another. The coast is clear for Peter Magyar to exercise unrestrained power and demolish the house that Viktor Orbán built. 1/

Istanbul, 2005, Champions League final. Liverpool are 3–0 down to AC Milan at half time. The players trudge off in despair, Benítez wrecking his head for solutions, Gerrard prepping for the team talk of his life. On the pitch: Shakira and BTS getting psyched with muppets and confetti cannons.

Palma Polyak reposted

Replying to @michaelanes.bsky.social

Muppets are great, talented kids are even greater. But halftime is when we go to the toilet, listen to 3–4 of the same 20 sentences from two retired players in a studio, and then the football starts again. I’m ready to take to the streets to defend it.