Pascal

Pascal

@pascallth.bsky.social

Political analyst Right makes might Substack: https://pascallth.substack.com/

3.1K followers305 following4.9K posts

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

And did this outreach actually achieve anything?

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu

🚨BREAKING: Finland’s President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre held a joint call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin today as part of international efforts to secure an end to the war in Ukraine. Full story: www.politico.eu/article/lead...

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Maybe I was too hasty, looks like the call did achieve something: fostering division within Europe If only prior experience would have told us that this was going to be the result bsky.app/profile/kyiv...

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com

⚡️ Update: Denmark slams Norway-Finland call with Putin. «I actually don’t know what the two countries think can be achieved with this. I think we should stand together and speak with one voice,» Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.

kyivindependent.comNorway, Finland call Putin ahead of potential Abu Dhabi peace talks"The outcome of this war will have a direct impact on our and the broader European security. Ending the war requires direct discussions," said Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

What terms the EU would be willing to offer the UK for membership is not independent of our approach to EU integration If we want to succeed then we'll need to show that we're not just asking to turn the clock back to before 2016 - talk of rejecting the euro and Schengen is unhelpful in this regard

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Beyond the result, that SNS has conceded, after the long authoritarian journey that Serbia has been through, is really good news

Europe Elects@europeelects.bsky.social

Serbia: The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS-EPP) has admitted defeat in today's parliamentary elections. The Student List (SL-*) has won a majority of votes. #Serbia #Srbija #Izbori2026

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Vučić was PM 2014-17 and then President 2017-26, before calling these snap elections with the intent of becoming PM again Clear that his plan to stay in power even longer has backfired

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

It's not harmless because now this is going round on twitter as prime evidence that Zelensky foiled a generous peace deal that Putin could have endorsed

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

A deal supposedly brokered by these two men in an informal channel that was never raised anywhere else and does not match any other Russian position before or since And from two men with an obvious hero complex, who see themselves as world saviours in a story that isn't theirs

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Any future accession will require the UK to commit to joining the euro For how long will either the EU or UK voters be convinced by a PM saying that Britain is acting completely sincerely signing up to this commitment while also recommending that we never join?

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

Also FoM is a red line for the EU and I don't think the Euro or Schengen would be.

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

The good news is the PM has decided not to box himself in on free movement The bad news is he's decided to box himself in on the euro and Schengen Rejoin has been delayed again

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Four years into this and people at the top of the US government still have no grasp over what is happening

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com

⚡️️️️️️️Rubio reveals theory on Russia's war against Ukraine ahead of next US peace push. "People keep talking about it's a war in Ukraine. ... It's about one region of the country," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.

kyivindependent.comRubio reveals theory on Russia's war against Ukraine ahead of next US peace push"People keep talking about it's a war in Ukraine. ... It's about one region of the country," U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Four years of the West focusing on sanctions on Russian fossil fuels, followed by a few months of Ukrainian strikes on Russia's oil sector - the difference in impact is stark

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

From my own blog pascallth.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

Anne Applebaum@anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu

"With a seeming flick of a switch, Musk has the power to alter the course of a deadly conflict. " Nobody should have that kind of power www.wsj.com/world/ukrain...

wsj.comExclusive | Musk Ordered Starlink Slowdown That Blindsided UkraineThe SpaceX founder authorized the move and has been discussing Ukraine with Trump, but the president has denied ordering the restrictions.
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

If you enjoyed this paragraph, do consider reading the whole article and subscribing at the end (it's free) I was able to put quite a bit more time into this one, which I can't normally do but would be easier to justify with a larger readership

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Working for the enemy

Olga Nesterova@onestpress.onestnetwork.com

Tuberville: "Zelensky will play hardball, but you know what? He's not even a player in the game. Putin, President Trump, and the people on our side will make the final decision about Ukraine's future."

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Leaving any part of Ukraine under Russian occupation would be a betrayal that repeats the mistakes of 2014

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦@maks23.bsky.social

🇪🇺‼️ Europe can offer Putin two scenarios for ending the war: either freezing the war without 🇺🇦Ukraine joining NATO, or transferring all of Donbas to Russia in exchange for membership in the Alliance, — FT 📍1: Russia retains control over the occupied territories, Ukraine will never join NATO.

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Ukraine is better off outside both the EU and NATO, but wholly free, than as a partially occupied country just waiting for the Russian bombs to return

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Why are the countries who paid for these deliveries not raising hell with the US administration?

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦@maks23.bsky.social

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Kyiv Independent: 📍Pete Hegseth has not yet agreed to the transfer of a significant batch of Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine. 📍The missiles have already been paid for by Ukraine's international partners, but the documents for their delivery remain without Hegseth's signature.

Pascal reposted

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent.com

⚡️ Russian drone strike on park in Kharkiv Oblast kills children and infant. The drone struck the town's central park while many people, including families with children, were there, Interior Minister Ivan Vyhivskyi said. An infant in a stroller and two women were among those killed, he added.

kyivindependent.comRussian drone strike on park in Kharkiv Oblast kills children and infantThe drone struck the town's central park while many people, including families with children, were there, Interior Minister Ivan Vyhivskyi said. An infant in a stroller and two women were among those ...

Pascal reposted

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent.com

⚡️ Update: Russia launches 'one of its largest attacks' on Ukraine's energy infrastructure as US eases sanctions, Zelensky says.

kyivindependent.comRussia launches 'one of its largest attacks' on Ukraine's energy infrastructure as US eases sanctions, Zelensky saysUkrainian forces downed 289 out of the 332 drones, including jet-powered attack drones, launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. Russian drones and ballistic missiles of the Iskander-M or...

Pascal reposted

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Save Ukraine from a Russian Winter We need to intervene to stop a disaster in Ukraine this winter and act before irreversible harm is done Long thread🧵

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

The right initiative but still much too slow - need a serious prioritisation of European space tech to accelerate this programme

Pascal reposted

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦
@maks23.bsky.social

🇵🇱🇺🇦🇺🇸 Sikorski: Since January of last year, the U.S. has not contributed a single cent to the defense of Ukraine. We are doing it, Europe.

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

The fact we have arrived at this situation is on others (US, Spain, Greece..) The decision not to take the actions necessary to fix it is on us bsky.app/profile/pasc...

Pascal@pascallth.bsky.social

Save Ukraine from a Russian Winter We need to intervene to stop a disaster in Ukraine this winter and act before irreversible harm is done Long thread🧵

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

And no doubt today we'll hear again how it simply isn't possible to seize Russian assets - while Moscow picks up European assets like it's Trick or Treat www.reuters.com/business/ret...

reuters.comRussia moves on more European firms ahead of Zelenskiy's appearance at EU summitRussia has moved to place local assets of French, ​German, Swedish and Dutch companies ‌under temporary management, according to a decree by President Vladimir Putin, as EU ​ties hit a new low ​over t...
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Meanwhile the inevitable is now taking place - with no further deliveries (voluntary or paid) Ukraine is almost completely out of Patriot interceptors Unless we intervene ourselves with jets, Ukraine will be almost totally open to Russian ballistic missiles www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

washingtonpost.comUkraine critically low on Patriot interceptors as Russian strikes intensifyThe sophisticated air defense systems supplied by the U.S. are one of the few able to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles. The interceptors are also among the most depleted globally.
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

The jets Ukraine has already are playing a vital role in shoring up the air defence We can't give all our jets away, but we can a d should deploy our air forces to back up the Ukrainian defences this winter

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦@maks23.bsky.social

🇧🇪🇺🇦 Zelensky: We discussed with Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever the consequences of the round-the-clock Russian attacks on residential buildings, energy and other critical infrastructure in Ukraine. Currently, F-16s are very helpful in repelling attacks by jet "shaheds".

Pascal reposted

Kate from Kharkiv
@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social

This is a Russian jet-powered Shahed drone striking a supermarket in Odesa in broad daylight today. ​This is terrorism. Terrorists shouldn't be rewarded with lucrative business deals. They must be repelled, arrested, and prosecuted.

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Both could be correct. I doubt Trump is on top of the details of Starlink operation and its role in the war, so he may have instructed his inner circle to 'rid me of this turbulent Ukrainian' and this is how that order was interpreted

Nicholas Grossman@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social

Musk says he didn’t cut services to thwart Ukrainian self-defense, the US govt did. A senior US official says the Trump White House had nothing to do with that, implying Musk did it. A problem is they’re both serial liars, Putin sympathizers, and anti-democracy, so who knows.

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

It's EU leaders who should be matching Zelensky, instead of doubling down on the failed strategy of sweet talking Trump

Henry Foy@henryjfoy.ft.com

💥 EU leaders to urge Zelenskyy to tone down his public criticism of Trump, officials told FT, amid fears of a rapidly fraying DC-Kyiv relationship “It might be true, but it doesn’t always need to be said out loud,” said one, adding that leaders will be empathetic but firm as.ft.com/r/50363843-1...

as.ft.comEU leaders to urge Zelenskyy to rein in criticism of TrumpUkrainian leader’s comments about US president alarm European capitals
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Just like the American proposals for an energy ceasefire, someone needs to tell them that this means nothing until Russia can be forced to back down

POLITICO Europe@politico.eu

Bulgaria will work with Romania to propose halting drone attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea, the country’s PM Rumen Radev has said as he arrived at the European Council summit. We’re on the ground in Brussels. Follow live 👉 vist.ly/5nghn

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

There's a simple way Europe can kill this for good: seize the assets and start handing them over to Ukraine

Financial Times@financialtimes.com

FT Exclusive: European officials rebuffed the plan pitched by Donald Trump’s envoys during discussions in Miami last week to tempt Vladimir Putin back to the negotiating table. ft.trib.al/n1cPo4H

Pascal reposted

The Kyiv Independent
@kyivindependent.com

Volleys of explosions deafened Kyiv in the early hours of Oct. 14, as Russia targeted multiple energy facilities powering the capital amid a new campaign to isolate the city ahead of winter.

kyivindependent.comRussia turns to new tactics to destroy Ukraine’s energy grid this winter for goodSubscribe to the Newsletter Ukraine Business Roundup Subscribe Volleys of explosions deafened Kyiv in the early hours of Oct. 14, as Russia targeted multiple energy facilities powering the ...
Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

Is Ukraine better off than if Trump hadn't been elected? Has this 'jolt' actually solved any of our previous problems (the war being the most important)? How many problems have we *added* because of Trump? How many of these things would have happened anyway because of other factors (like China)?

Mujtaba Rahman@mijrahman.bsky.social

The argument that Trump would jolt the EU out of its malaise wasn't wrong: Germany's rearmament, €150bn on SAFE, €90bn Ukraine facility, trade diversification (Mercusor, Canada, India), the bloc's new policies on European preference etc are all a direct consequence of Trump 2.0 1/2

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

If the far-right are banging at the gates of power in Spain, France, Poland and Germany over the next 12 months, that's also because of Trump

Pascal
@pascallth.bsky.social

I will keep saying it - we are not powerless We do not have to stand by and watch innocents suffer because of the weakness of a few powerful men We can make a massive difference to Ukraine, but only if we are willing to match their bravery

Pascal@pascallth.bsky.social

Save Ukraine from a Russian Winter We need to intervene to stop a disaster in Ukraine this winter and act before irreversible harm is done Long thread🧵