Patrick Flynn

7 Nov 2024

Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!

focaldata.com'Ossoffism' and the GOP's Elite ProblemThis month's survey sought to find out which party’s brand was more ‘elite-coded’, and whether the nascent ‘Ossoffism’ has a future in US politics over the next few years.

New post from me on 'Ossoffism' and party brands in the US 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/ossoffi...

The Republican brand in the US has become *heavily* 'elite-coded'. Out of 40 archetypes we tested in our latest survey with @financialtimes.com, billionaires, CEOs, and country club members were the most Republican-leaning groups in the eyes of American voters.

Voters on both sides want see their party on the side of dog owners, nurses, fishing enthusiasts and (American) football fans. The chart below shows partisan coding vs in-group scores (was someone more likely to assign it to their own party or their opponent?)

This is the killer in an anti-elite political environment: the more Republican an archetype perception, the more likely voters were to view that archetype as part of the elite.

Labour electing Burnham unopposed is a big risk in my view. Sure, it avoids potential party in-fighting over the summer, but is that risk really bigger than electing a new PM in a matter of weeks where few MPs, let alone the public, actually know what his plan is for the country?

Surely the better course of action would be to conduct a proper leadership election over the summer, even if Burnham is only opposed by a paper candidate who gets 15% of the vote, so policy/vision/performance can actually be debated.

We know that the public is increasingly unforgiving and eager for change. Having to introduce yourself to the public properly and set out your vision while simultaneously doing the job as PM effectively is a very difficult pair of tasks. Why not separate the two?

The party risks replicating what the Democrats did with Kamala Harris -- crowning someone in a very short timeframe based mostly on vibes, with zero scrutiny or democratic debate.

unherd.comSix coping myths about the local election

9 May

New post-locals piece with my brilliant colleague @matthewbprice.bsky.social unherd.com/2026/05/six-...

22 Apr

Excited to reveal the first @focaldata.bsky.social House of Representatives MRP poll of 2026. 🔵 Democrats: 228 seats (+13) 🔴 Republicans: 207 seats (-13) Fieldwork conducted up to Monday this week, and the model accounts for last night's redistricting referendum in Virginia.

11 Mar

The economy might cost Donald Trump the House in November. Economic hardship is driving voter behaviour at more than twice the rate of the next biggest issue.

t.cohttps://www.focaldata.com/blog/cost-of-living-fuelling-democrat-strength-in-new-midterms-polling

11 Mar

If you haven't seen it, you can read the blog here: t.co/WczGHfOG2g

10 Mar

Greens up to a record high of 13% in our first post-G&D poll. 🟣 RFM: 27% (+1) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1) 🔵 CON: 18% (-2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (-) 🟢 GRN: 13% (+3) ⚫️ Restore Britain: 2% (NEW) ⚫️ Your Party: <1% (NEW)

4 Mar

Attention spans have collapsed. So why are some politicians more popular than ever?

focaldata.comHow to Communicate in an Attention CrisisNew survey research using TV ads reveals that falling attention spans among younger generations are reshaping what messages cut through, and why weird, disruptive content now outperforms serious, slow...

4 Mar

Read the full @focaldata.bsky.social blog here: www.focaldata.com/blog/how-to-...

25 Feb

We're about to release a piece on the attention crisis gripping young people. Some pretty shocking stats in it

We just released our first US midterms polling of 2026. The main story is a familiar one, that the cost of living is again set to punish the incumbent. Since 2024, the Democrats' vote margin has increased by double digits with those most concerned about food/gas prices.

Trump approval is now sharply correlated with voters' perceived financial positions, a pattern which holds among his own voters.

Overall, inflation and economic concerns are boosting the Democrats by ~2 points, equivalent to an extra 2.5 million votes in November.

In the generic House of Representatives ballot, the Democrats lead by 5 points with registered voters, and 7 with likely voters.

theguardian.comThese charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stageAnalysis shows that the world is moving closer to China, as Trump’s isolationism rears its head at the United Nations

Great to see our latest geopolitics white paper written up by the Guardian's dataviz team! www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

5 Feb

The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards China, driven primarily by Europe's increased distance from the US under the Trump II era. We analysed decades of UN voting data to create a new US-China axis, and found the US advantage is at its lowest level this century.

4 Feb

Over the last month, I've been analysing the results of thousands of UN votes to create a new geopolitical axis. I was struck by just how severe the Trump effect has been since his second term began. UK-US alignment is now at an all-time low.

28 Jan

guys...

Owen Winter@owenwntr.bsky.social

Sample size of 143, one month from the election, with no Labour or Green candidates selected

28 Jan

Releasing a poll of 143 people, besides all the other issues involved with this particular pollster, is quite the move.

21 Jan

Our first voting intention poll of 2026 sees Reform slipping to 26%, down 3 points since late November. 🟣 RFM: 26% (-3) 🔴 LAB: 21% (+1) 🔵 CON: 20% (+2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN: 10% (-2)

21 Jan

The drop coincides with immigration and asylum falling down the agenda. 35% now say it's one of the most important issues facing the country, down from 49% in early November. As we found earlier this year, Farage-led parties typically move in lockstep with migration concern.

focaldata.comBritain's Digital Future: A new white paper from FocaldataWe are delighted to announce the release of our latest white paper, Britain's Digital Future: Why digital sovereignty could become the next major political divide.

16 Dec 2025

Pleased to say we've just launched a new white paper on digital sovereignty (a phrase we'll probably be hearing more of in the next 12 months). Download it here: www.focaldata.com/blog/britain...

On the eve of the Autumn Budget, our latest polling finds that *over half* of 2024 Labour voters who are 'finding it difficult' economically have now switched parties. 17% now back the Greens, and a further 17% back Reform. 🧵

GB voting intention results: 🟣 RFM: 28% (-2) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1)* 🔵 CON: 20% (+1) 🟠 LDM: 13% (-) 🟢 GRN: 10% (+1) *All-time low

www.focaldata.com/blog/labour-...

focaldata.comLabour drops to record low amid gloomy Budget outlookAhead of the Autumn Budget on Wednesday, the public is in a very bleak mood about the state of the economy and many expect things to get even worse.

The result is this... Labour still leads on 31% with those who say they are 'living comfortably', but Reform now dominates with those facing economic hardship with 38% of the vote, with Labour narrowly in fifth place (12%).

On budget measures, voters are split on whether freezing income tax thresholds and removing the two-child benefit cap are the right thing to do. Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters narrowly back both measures, but Reform & Conservative supporters are typically opposed.

21 Nov 2025

With COP30 coming to a close today, which party do Brits trust most on climate and energy topics? Greens are trusted most on core environmental issues, but fare less well on energy policy. Reflects a common issue, that voters aren't sure climate action = better economic outcomes.

21 Nov 2025

These findings are part of a wider piece of research on climate messaging. We used our new conjoint analysis tool to estimate the effects of messengers, tone and focus on climate messages tailored for 2025. We found that messengers mattered more than the actual messages...

focaldata.comHow climate change narratives fare in a new eraClimate change and Net Zero could be headed down the same path as overseas aid unless policymakers and advocates act quickly.

21 Nov 2025

Other interesting findings in the piece: www.focaldata.com/blog/how-to-...

focaldata.comHas the time come for Proportional Representation?After bubbling away in policy circles since the AV referendum in 2011, the debate over electoral reform is likely to burst back into the mainstream in the coming years. There are a few major factors d...

Our latest blog looks at attitudes to proportional representation in the UK, and why the debate is likely to go mainstream in the next couple of years. But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...

We also asked people to give their ranked ballot preferences under a PR system. Some interesting findings here (almost a quarter of Reform voters would rank Labour, the Lib Dems or Greens second).

Finally, we used a combination of public MRP polls, modelled with our own data and the preferences given above to estimate how the UK would vote under different electoral systems.

However, messages against PR are more effective at changing people's minds than those in support. The average anti-PR message reduces support by 3.8 points, whereas the average pro-PR message only increases support by 1.2 points.

Which parties would people be willing to go into coalition with? The public splits into pretty clear left and right blocs...

Voters narrowly back PR over FPTP 41% to 36%, with the model below showing the key drivers of PR support. People who disapprove of their local MP are much more likely to back PR!

In contrast to the Brexit referendum, voters on both sides of the debate more or less want the same things. Being able to vote for your preferred party rather than tactically is the characteristic most selected by supporters of each system.

20 Aug 2025

NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election. After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇

Patrick Flynn@patrickjfl.bsky.social

We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members. We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.

20 Aug 2025

Full write-up below, including our latest Westminster voting intention figures. www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...