peterkellner.bsky.social

The shared pain of Farage and Polanski: Britain’s legacy parties may be on their way back www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...

Ignore the Greens’ misleading claims. It was a catastrophic night for Zack Polanski, and a remarkable victory for Sagal Absi-Wali kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-figure...

Andy Burrnham should beware what he wishes for. My analysis for New World shows changing the voting system could be good for democracy, but not necessarily for Labour. www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...

How tactical voting could wreck Refoprm's hopes. My analysis for New World www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...

Labour is more middle class than ever. Here are the results of a major new poll that shows which voters are on the move – and where they are going kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-is-...

Reform's £72m war chest may not move many votes - but it doesn't need to move many to change the future of British politics www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...

Holborn and St Pancras looks like a safe Labour seat. In fact it would be a triumph for Andy Burnham and disaster for Zack Polanski if it doesn’t change hands www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...

Anthony Seldon looks at Badenoch's prospects with a broader perspective then my analysis of her poll ratings. His take is well worth reading www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Eight companies report very different findings for Kemi Badenoch’s standing with voters. This Substack analysis explores the reasons – and uncovers a new poll that has extremely good news for her. kellnerp.substack.com/p/solved-the...

The first ten minutes of the BBC’s Six o’clock news were devoted to the eclipse. Not only will there be no full eclipse in the UK, we know exactly what will happen, when and why - and have known this for decades. In what sense is this “news”?

A new poll shows Reform slipping to third place. What is going on? kellnerp.substack.com/p/dear-nigel...

Here is my assessment of the Greater Manchester mayoral election kellnerp.substack.com/p/relief-for...

The polls have good news for the prime minister – not just Labour adding support, but Reform losing it kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnhams-b...

The data are clear: few of us believe we benefit from our contract with the state. This post explores the challenge this poses for the new prime minister. kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnhams-b...

There is a fair amount of loose talk about the polls and Andy Burnham’s prospects. His fate will be decided by how well he does, not by forces he can’t control kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...

In the lull between Keir Starmer’s resignation and Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street, the Conservative leader’s performance is worth inspecting. She is using dud facts to make her case on welfare policy kellnerp.substack.com/p/kemi-baden...

As Andy Burnham prepares to enter Downing Street, and Nigel Farage prepares to campaign in Clacton, new polling evidence reveals the challenges facing both of them. kellnerp.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...

My open letter to the new prime minister argues that first-past-the-post used to be defensible, but is now dangerous. kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-modest-p...

Next week’s by-election is arguably the most important ever held. As it approaches its climax, tactical voting has increased Andy Burham’s lead, IF the latest poll is right. Here is my analysis of the state of play. kellnerp.substack.com/p/makerfield...

This post will not please everyone. I argue that the 50-year experiment of giving the vote to grassroot members has failed. kellnerp.substack.com/p/hand-the-p...

The first poll says Burnham is 3% ahead of Reform. I argue that his true lead may be greater kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-is-th...

Brexit is less popular than ever. Arguments about whether to rejoin the EU have dominated early skirmishes about Labour’s leadership. YouGov’s latest poll suggests a way forward. kellnerp.substack.com/p/brexit-is-...

Suubstack's poll of Labour Party members is strking. but are its numbers right? kellnerp.substack.com/p/burnham-en...

Reform and the Greens now know where they can break through. Is Starmer the right leader to fend them off? Prospect commissioned this analysis www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/734...

How sholuld we judge the perforamn ce of each party in next week's elections? Here are my assessments of the numbers that will mean joy, relief, disappointment or despair for each party. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/731...

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the case for Britain rejoining the EU is beginning to be made. My latest Substack post discusses how to keep public opinion onside. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majori...

I first came across the problem of Whitehall hiding the truth from its political masters and the wider public 48 years ago. This Substack revisits an old scandal that shows we need more than new rules for vetting ambassadors. kellnerp.substack.com/p/keeping-pr...

The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise. Here is my analysis of the latest polls kellnerp.substack.com/p/lies-damne...

The Assisted Dying Bill has huge public support. Its opponents are trying to pretend otherwise kellnerp.substack.com/p/lies-damne...

Trump breaks the golden rule: don't go to war without public support. See my analysis for New World. thenewworld.substack.com/p/polls-amer...

Reform really has lost support. Here's the evidence. The fault, dear Nigel, is not in the polls but in yourselves. www.thenewworld.co.uk/peter-kellne...

Starmer says “it was me who made the mistake” of appointing Mandelson ambassador to the US. His apology is unacceptable. The PM should of course have said “it was I who made the mistake”.

Donald Trump is no Franklin Roosevelt

Labour's line post Gorton is that the Tories lost 20 out of 21 by-elections in 2010-15. Of ther 21, just 4 were defended by the Tories: 2 to lost to sitting MPs defecting to Ukip. So 2 conventional Tory defences - 1 lost (Corby), 1 held (Newark). Not quite the catastrophe Labour are now making out.

New World asked me to analyse what the polls say, what the president might try, and the chances of stopping him kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-us-mid...

A new poll on Labour’s leadership should be handled with care – and so should another on tax-and-spend. kellnerp.substack.com/p/rayner-may...

The differences among polling companies are not just about numbers; they tell different stories about the state of our multiparty politics. This post explores the reasons why their results vary kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-po...

The book that political junkies have been waiting for has just been published. The British General Election of 2024 is the latest in a series that goes back to 1945. This review, first published by Prospect, discusses its strengths – and its gaps. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7209...

From Greenland to Minneapolis, Donald Trump is in trouble with middle America. His troubles extend to his policies across the board. Voters now regard him as anti-Midas: everything he touches turns to dross. kellnerp.substack.com/p/middle-ame...

The right-wing media want a Reform-Tory pact. My latest Substack post analyses why they are unlikely to get their way. kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-ri...

In their hearts, MPs from all parties know that Britain needs a new, fair and affordable plan for pensions. My Substack (subscriptions are free) argues that It will take guts, but one might be on the way kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...

In the early hours of May 7, 1945, Germany surrendered to the allies, including Russia, 1,415 days after Hitler's troops invaded the Soviet Union. Putin's troops invaded Ukraine 1,415 days ago this morning. The "special military operation" has now lasted longer than the "great patriotic war".

My new year post argues that Labour’s leader must find the “wow” factor if he is not to resign, be removed or condemn Labour to certain defeat at the next election kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-o...

For my final Substack post of 2025 I look at the wholesale transfer of support from the main legacy parties (Lab + Con) to the surging insurgents (Reform + Green) - and their similarity to the tactics of ice cream vans kellnerp.substack.com/p/2025-the-y...

My latest Substack post analyses Britain’s continuing problems with productivity. Spoiler alert: they are not just the fault of the Tories. They go deeper than that. PS: Subscription to my posts is free. kellnerp.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...

Suddenly the talk at Westminster is of the government wanting a closer relationship with the European Union. What should we make of this? My latest Substack crunches the numbers. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majori...

If Labour changes its leader, how can it win the next election? My post considers how the new prime minister could maximise their chances of success. kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...

Last month marked the centenary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth. In my latest Substack post, I argue that progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...

A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister. My latest Substack post explains all. kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...

To become prime minister, Nigel Farage must defy history. My new post for Subnstack discusses his prospects kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...