Phillips OBrien

Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive). www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/phill...

AI will transform how wars are fought - but AI is not what its promotors are saying. And Elon Musk is doing whatever he can to destroy democracy, create more damage and serve himself.

As O’Brien called it in 2/25 “the USA is being run by an organized crime-like syndicate, and is selling off US secrets, capabilities and influence in the most grotesque and open ways.” How could the (military) tech CEOs who went all in with Trump not realize this would not end well for them?

“As someone who has spent a career studying strategic production and the relationship between the states and the companies that make military products, what we have seen over the last 21 months is unprecedented and, frankly, shocking.”

Though the Trump administration is full of bombast, the US has lost this war with Iran. You want to see why? The region is moving on without the USA. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/26/w...

Listen to: America as a revisionist power with Professor @phillipspobrien.bsky.social of @uniofstandrews.bsky.social | The Ballpark podcast blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...

It’s amazing that MAGA labels every election result is doesn’t like as “stolen” or an example of “fraud “, but when Putin “wins” almost 90% of the vote in his crooked elections, they don’t make a peep.

The fact that Trump and Musk caved proves European leaders are wrong not calling America's support of Russia by Republicans is wrong - and only enables it

Even though Trump caved in to great pressure over Starlink/Starshield, it doesn’t change the basic fact that the US is more and more an open ally of Russia. The US is still refusing to deliver purchased Patriot missiles, buying Russian diesel, has neutered Graham-Blumenthal, and there is more…

A huge thanks to Phillips OBrien for his free weekend analyses. Highly recommend this Sunday morning update.

“The speed limitations on Starlink/Starshield started 13 October. This could not happen by accident. It was a clear violation of agreements put in place by the Biden Administration. It also contravened US agreement with European states, which were paying for Ukrainian access to Starlink/Starshield”

Trump reacts to pressure, not flattery.

A hopeful sign

This episode will ultimately hurt the USA in terms of both trust and purchase of systems that use Starlink/Starshield. Who will want to purchase defence equipment that uses this technology and software…

"The story behind this move will be the big story for the week, because it reveals a great deal about how the US government is operating, how amazingly easy it is for the US press to be manipulated, and finally, what Trump and his administration actually react to."

Free weekend update is out. Its mostly a deep dive into the Starlink/Starshield move by Trump and Musk (yes both of them) which did real damage to Ukraine and proved a point. Trump reacts to pressure, not flattery. Standing up to him is the only way. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-up...

Hi All, Just did an AMA with subscribers—was a great deal of fun and the hotel internet made it through (barely). We went over many issues from US politics, to the Ukraine War to military adaptation around the world. Anyone can watch it all. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/live-with-...

I got to think that the Trump’s possibly selling off parts of Alaska to the Russians, will not be wildly popular with Alaska voters.

What this shows is that kissing Trump’s ass always fails. He reacts only to pressure. In this case terrible US polling, screaming Republicans, and catastrophic damage being done to US defense companies.

This is the kind of deal the Democrats need to investigate immediately if they take Congress. An oil deal in Alaska which actually might be a gift to the Russians with Trump involvement. www.ft.com/content/e9cf...

Trump and Musk are just stringing Ukraine along and letting Russia attack it with impunity. And the American press is foolishly falling for blue smoke and mirrors, arguing whether Musk or Trump are responsible. Hint, they both are!

Just did a live session with Adam Kinzinger. We went deep into US politics, why Trump is doing what he is doing, what the Democrats might do in response, and ended with a discussion of what is happening in the Russo-Ukraine War. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/live-with-...

Both Trump and Musk seem to be BS-ing to draw this out and leave Ukraine exposed for as long as possible.

The Trump plan to help Putin is in full swing.

Midweek update is out. Trump and Netanyahu are using bombing threats for political benefits alone it seem, populist foreign policy laid bare. Actually, in the US case, as admitted this week, the direction of travel is to get out of the Middle East. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/midweek-up...

Phillips OBrien - 2/2 And while I approve of this, it is being done now in the worst possible way. The US started a war, lost it, is now insulting and imperilling the states in the region, and threatening to cause a long term war. It is a strategic disaster.

Welcome to the world of populist foreign policy, where war is simply a political tool to keep leaders in power; so much so that these threats should have campaign announcements on them. And how the US is leaving the Middle East by self-inflicted weakness & incompetence: losing wars, dumping allies.

Sums up the US government’s official position exactly. They really believe and act like Putin is in the right, a true “humanitarian “.

It is so important that European leaders acknowledge the truth as Kaja Kallas does here. Trump and the USG have been trying to force Ukraine to surrender for almost two years. There has been no recent pivot to Russia. It’s been a constant US policy www.euronews.com/2026/10/20/k...

Some day the KGB/FSB files will be released about Trump. After Putin falls.

Europe, NATO - come on, get cracking on supporting Ukraine, expel russians and take russian funds. And Britain, this is seriously where you step up and show some leadership in the European sphere.

By far the most disgusting statement by a US president so far. Full of arrogance, selfishness and worst of all, actively supporting the killing of civilians in Ukraine with his words and actions

Latest piece out. This week has been a reality check for so many who have lied and pretended things were true which were not. Here are 10 key points that need to be accepted on Trump and US foreign policy, to understand where we have been--and are going. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/time-for-a...

Do you get it now, finally. Trump doesnt give a damn about human life, be it American or Ukrainian. He is fine with Russia slaughtering defenseless civilians. This is your America, MAGA.

When Trump says the Ukraine does not want to end the war, what he is really saying is that Ukraine does not want to surrender to a deal that he has worked out with Putin which would see the Ukrainians hand over more of their land and people. Speaking the truth is important.

Spoken like a pure Trump backer on January 6, 2021.

Hopefully, now, American voters will understand what they must do.

It is impossible to befriend the USA when they have a Putin apologist in charge as Starmer found out and Zelenskyy has now discovered….