Phil Smith

Taking a look at short-term economic growth indicators, real GDP and employment have been steaming upward but recent data on wholesale sales, exports, imports and residential construction have been less favourable. Inflation seems under control, except for energy prices. #cdnecon

This LinkedIn post was right on target.

This was such a great answer from Abdul El-Sayed about his previous criticisms of President Obama.

Recent data from some new sector-based producer price indexes, developed by the BoC and released by STC, look a bit alarming. For sources, see the chart footnote. #cdnecon

Now that the September LFS data are available, here is an updated heatmap showing a variety of labour market indicators. #cdnecon

This is what crowd out looks like.

This is a reminder that I have several table viewers and dashboards available, free of charge and with no registration or use authorization necessary. philipsmith.ca/dashboards/

Long-term bond rates have risen sharply this year. Here's what has happened to federal interest payments on national debt in CA and US so far. Expect these ratios to go a lot higher as the debt turns over. #cdnecon

Everyone assumes Trump wants to boost US manufacturing, lower r and pdot, swing the trade balance, cut immigration and improve the US military, but is failing because of dumb policies. The alternative assumption - he is just doing Putin's bidding - fits the facts better.

The BoC released a description of its new projection and policy analysis macroeconomic model today. It's a very sophisticated model. Here's how the CPI YoY change responds in the model (deviation from control) to a 100 basis point policy rate increase (Chart 4). www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u...

An interesting study by the BoC's Benjamin Straus finds that the NPR surge and higher interest rates were the big factors causing Canadian asking rents to surge between 2002 and 2024. The paper contains other interesting findings as well. www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/spar...

New survey data released by STC today indicate that Canadian business enterprise in-house research and development expenditures, which were flat in 2024 and 2025, are expected to increase only marginally in 2026. #cdnecon

Real GDP was flat in July, STC reported today. One way to cut through the volatility in month-to-month real GDP growth rates is to focus on the 6-month % change expressed at annual rates. On that basis the economy has been performing quite well in recent months. #cdnecon

The chart here shows Government of Canada revenue, expenditure and debt accumulations as % of GDP, 1990 Q1 to 2026 Q2. Since 2024 Q1, expenditure has been flat while revenue has declined. #cdnecon

The first seven months of LFS and SEPH data this year show that the reconciled differences in the 12-month % changes between the two surveys have returned to the relatively small range seen in the pre-pandemic period after having widened considerably between 2020 and 2025. #cdnecon

SEPH employment, updated to July 2026 by STC today, continues its rising trend, up 0.1% in the month and 0.9% vs. July 2025. Non-O&G mining has been a major contributor, up 4.9% YoY although down -0.5% in July. #cdnecon

Quarterly population growth rates continue to be at historically low levels (the peak COVID quarters excepted) as NPR levels are gradually brought back down to earth. #cdnecon

Canada's population increased by 42,844 people (0.2%) in the 2nd quarter, StatCan reported today, with decreasing non-permanent residents continuing to be a drag on growth. #cdnecon

Here's a link to a very interesting speech a couple of days ago at the ECB by Paul Krugman in which, among other things, he looks at the role of economic size and economic power in world trade, focussing in particular on US, EU and Canada. www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0Vx...

There is considerable variation in the gap between the unemployment rate and the EI insurance rate across provinces. It's currently around 5% in ON, AB and BC, 3-4% in NS, QC, MB and SK and close to zero in NL, PE and NB. This relates to the 'economic region' criterion in the EI program. #cdnecon

Prices for new housing continued to drop in August. They were down -0.1% in the month and -2.0% over the last twelve, StatCan reported this morning. They have been on a slow decline for 4 years now. #cdnecon

The pickup in Canadian new car sales, in value terms, that had begun in January, fell off a bit in July according to data released by StatCan today. #cdnecon

Statistics Canada reported this morning that labour productivity increased 1% in the second quarter. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/labour_produ...

The joy of winning and the pain of losing static01.nyt.com/athletic/upl...

StatCan reported capital expenditure survey results for Canada's O&G industry yesterday. Investment, seasonally adjusted, was up 7% compared to the first quarter, but down -2.3% compared to a year earlier. #cdnecon

View my three Canadian economic statistics browsers here: Quarterly nat. accts: philipsmith.ca/nataccts/ Monthly national economic indicators: philipsmith.ca/macroindicat... Monthly by-province economic indicators: philipsmith.ca/provindicato... #cdnecon

Total hours worked in Canada rose 0.5% in June, continuing the solid uptrend that started in February this year StatCan reported this morning (in SEPH). #cdnecon

Here is a chart showing the pre-trade-war relative trends in Canada's imports from the US, by major NAPCS product group. It will be interesting to watch how these lines move in the year ahead. #cdnecon

BEA released its second estimates of US real GDP in the second quarter. The US economy grew 1.5% at annual rates. See my browser at the address below for details. #economy #useconomy #business #gdp philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/NatAcctsUSA/

Part of Paul Krugman's (paulkrugman@substack.com) commentary today on the US-CA trade war. www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPcy...

Here's my CPI browser with all of the price indexes released by Statistics Canada today. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/CPI/cpi.html

Perhaps already proposed, I don't know, but if Canada must retaliate I suggest we impose 5% export taxes on electricity, potash and O&G, using the revenues from the tax to compensate firms in the those industries as much as we can. If the US retaliates to this, raise the tax to 10%. #cdnecon

Herewith a simulation of Canadian labour market monthly flows among employment, unemployment and not in the labour force, done using the Claude AI Agent. #cdnecon philipsmith.ca/Cdn_labour_f...

Foreign purchases of Canadian financial assets have been on a tear for the last two years. Evidently foreign investors' confidence in our economy is very much on the rise. #cdnecon

The hours-worked growth gap since January 2024, between the O&G-producing and non-O&G-producing provinces remains wide. In July it widened further in goods-producing industries and narrowed in services-producing industries. #cdnecon

philip635.substack.com/p/measuring-...

On July 29 StatCan released a 'corrected' version of its table 36-10-0713-01 with annual labour productivity statistics for 2025, by industry and province. They contrast greatly with the annual version of the quarterly LP statistics released June 3. Hard to know what's going on with Canadian LP.

Canada's monthly exports to EU nations are volatile, but have been trending up since early 2024. They plunged during the pandemic period, but have now recovered to the pre-pandemic level. The government is doing what it can to keep them growing at a strong pace. #cdnecon

Among the economically advanced democracies, it seems the smaller ones tend to have the most prosperity. The US, UK and Canada should learn from this although what the key lessons are, I am not sure. More decentralization perhaps? Or perhaps the opposite? prosperityindex.com/rankings

SEPH's estimate of weekly total employee compensation fell 0.2% in May reflecting a 0.3% drop in average hours worked, a 0.1% decrease in average hourly compensation and a 0.1% rise in employment. The 12-month increase was 3.8%. philipmsmith.shinyapps.io/SEPHbrowser/ #cdnecon

There's concern recently about Carney not being sufficiently transparent, eg. the bridge deal and tariff discussions. I think he is not transparent on some issues because he sees potential advantages for Canada that the incompetent Trump administration does not. There's no point in telling them.

StatCan released restaurant and tavern receipts data for May 2026 today. As we all remember and as seen in the chart, the industry took a big hit during and after the pandemic, but it is doing well again now. Receipts were up 0.9% in May and 5.5% since May 2025. #cdnecon

Canadian retail sales have been doing exceptionally well since the start of the year. StatCan today released numbers for May and June at 1.0% and 0.4% and the YoY increase to June was 4.9% (according to the advance estimate). #cdnecon

Here's my latest (free) Substack paper on the frailties of productivity statistics. philip635.substack.com/p/how-to-rea...