Phil Swatton

Phil Swatton

@philswatton.bsky.social

Work as a senior data scientist at the Alan Turing Institute, background in political science. Views my own and not necessarily shared by my employer. https://philswatton.github.io/

318 followers446 following413 posts

However, it is a mistake to mistake these for genuine, human-like personality traits to the agents. In humans, measured personality dimensions depend on the assumptions such as introspection and a stable identity. In persona agents these emerge entirely from learned linguistic associations.

We define 'tampering' as 'adapting an ML model or circumventing the safeguards or guardrails of that model for the purpose of using it for harmful activity not intended by the model creator'.

This was very difficult to put together. The inclusions are much easier to defend than some exclusions: - One, No One, One Hundred Thousand by Pirandello - The Anatomy of Fascism by Robert Paxton - Calvino - Orwell

Also learning from this process how much more fiction stays with me, despite the fact I read both fiction and non fiction equally (or the latter slightly more)

I think people are right to say there is a third option, but saying so starts from objecting to the combination of "by any any reasonable stabdard" and "very different from us".

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

Ultimately you get backed into one of two positions: 1) the AIs are, by any reasonable standard, thinking and understanding, albeit in a way very different from us 2) “thinking” and “understanding” require a soul, which we have and they do not The territory between these has basically collapsed

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LLMs are astonishingly effective, but the notion they sample from sophisticated distributions over text is a better fit than "thinking" or "understanding" because it also fits their failure modes.

I think people are right to say there is a third option, but saying so starts from objecting to the combination of "by any any reasonable stabdard" and "very different from us".

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

Ultimately you get backed into one of two positions: 1) the AIs are, by any reasonable standard, thinking and understanding, albeit in a way very different from us 2) “thinking” and “understanding” require a soul, which we have and they do not The territory between these has basically collapsed

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So the answer is that capability on things which require thinking and understanding in humans is not prima facie evidence of thinking or understanding. We don't think chess engines think or understand because we have better theories of how they work which.

I think people are right to say there is a third option, but saying so starts from objecting to the combination of "by any any reasonable stabdard" and "very different from us".

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

Ultimately you get backed into one of two positions: 1) the AIs are, by any reasonable standard, thinking and understanding, albeit in a way very different from us 2) “thinking” and “understanding” require a soul, which we have and they do not The territory between these has basically collapsed

If you accept that LLMs do no think or understand in the ways that humans do—and how we do these is not well understood—then whether they do "think" or "understand" depends mostly on how broadly you are prepared to define these terms.

Great primer for anyone looking to understand the Saxony-Anhalt result and how to properly contextualise it, along with why the BSW is important to the prospects of an AFD government there

Dr. Sarah Wagner@sarahwagner.bsky.social

A few thoughts on the role of the BSW in Saxony-Anhalt. Many thanks to @uk.theconversation.com for the quick turnaround. theconversation.com/why-a-small-...

For non-AI folks, abliteration is a technique for removing safeguards from a model. The reason I think the OpenAI cybersecurity stuff is concerning is that open-weight models lag closed-source models in capability by ~6 months, meaning that soon, many attackers could get an uplift in capability

Ethan Mollick@emollick.bsky.social

This didn't take long... 😬

And the widespread practice of 'jailbreaking' LLMs guarantees that safeguards won't be sufficient to prevent this. Worrying about AGI is usually worrying about the wrong thing!

Great quote from a 100% correct piece. We know all of our models of the world are wrong, but we still have to do research and take action in the world. How do we balance those concerns?

Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci

“…as peer reviewers or question askers at conferences, we must accept that our pet issue is not more important than the other 10 issues and if the analyst has had a good go at handling a bunch of issues, we can’t just pile more and more issues on them to fix. It is impossible.”

Two brief thoughts on why I think it's still worth keeping LLM use out of introductory programming for stats/data science: - You need to be a good programmer to get good code out of an LLM - You need to be a good programmer to evaluate the code you get out of an LLM

Alexander Wuttke@kunkakom.bsky.social

Genuinely interested in your views: What is the future of teaching statistical programming language for data science in the age of AI? Will we even still teach programming R or Python?

This leaflet format is the British political equivalent of carcinisation

Rob Ford@robfordmancs.bsky.social

Behold the by-election catechism: “Only x can win here” “Two horse race” Bar chart (often misleading) - “can’t win here” “Only (our candidate) can beat (candidate you don’t like)” “Vote (our party)” (under breath: don’t waste your time on splitters from (similar party”)

Abundantly clear that we are in bloc politics and that Labour's strategy should reflect this. Also very clear that ultimate defeat of the far right in the UK will depend on the UK Conservatives reasserting themselves as the main party of the British right.

Adam Bienkov@adambienkov.bsky.social

Labour lost almost four times as many voters to the Greens as they did to Reform UK in the local elections, according to new YouGov polling

I once got a lift home after canvassing from Ken Skates. He mostly spoke very enthusiastically about theories of Rey's origin from the Disney Star Wars films (think this was before episode 8 came out)

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5. All detection solutions are highly vulnerable to simple perturbations and edits, and this is not reflected in most benchmarks 6. Among proprietary solutions, Originality appears promising but lacks sufficient evidence and likely suffers from the same limitations as other approaches 4/5

However, a fundamental limitation is that extant benchmarking approaches fail to consider realistic use of AI-generated text, including simple edits or variations in decoder strategy. They do not capture real-world performance. The review concludes with recommendations for future benchmarks. 5/5

The review was based on aggregating results from existing benchmarking efforts. We identify some core results: 1. SoTA detection depends on in-domain transformer encoder classifiers 2. Detectors perform best on the training data + models they were trained on 2/5

3. There is some evidence for successful in-domain generalisation to new models, but this is inconsistent and may depend on model family 4. Generalisation to new domains however remains difficult 3/5

This is a great point: anyone who's not been plugged into AI discourse and encounters contemporary models is going to get Eliza'd into Yudkowski-adjacent views on AI safety

Nathan Goldwag@goldwagnathan.bsky.social

If you somebody just showed you the stuff that exists now and you hadn't been immersed in the last few years of hype spirals and calcifying political narratives and slowly-escalating capability it'd scare the shit out of you too.

Think this is basically correct, albeit some are making educated guesses while others are just making guesses.

Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social

Anyone confidently asserting they know to win an election is either: 1. a consultant trying to sell you something, 2. a political hobbyist with little direct experience, or 3. a moron Nobody knows. Every single aspect of campaigning is an educated guess by people desperate for some lever to pull.

There was a lot in the review I found interesting and worth further reading or borrowing: his defence of the Enlightenment as an ongoing project, his notions of communicative rationality and deliberative democracy, his opposition to visionary thought. He seems to me to have left a very rich legacy.

Great post. I think the biggest examples of this kind of motivated causal attribution on my side of the aisle is the notion that Russian disinfo changed the outcomes of the 2016 EU Ref/2016 US Presidential election. Disinfo is v. concerning for a variety of reasons, but rarely changes vote choice.

James Breckwoldt@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social

We explain political change using totally different causal models if we approve of outcome of not: 1. Change we like is organic, bottom-up genuine expression of public demand 2. Change we dislike is artificial, top-down result of manipulative elite I’m calling this Motivated Causal Attribution

The notion of 'real' public preferences obscured by top-down manipulation recalls Isaiah Berlin's notion of positive liberty, where I can coerce a person because their 'higher self' would want it.