Pleased that our paper on the ability of LLM-driven persona agents to simulate human personality dimensions has now made it to publication in Royal Society Open Science: doi.org/10.1098/rsos...
Phil Swatton
Phil Swatton
@philswatton.bsky.social
Work as a senior data scientist at the Alan Turing Institute, background in political science. Views my own and not necessarily shared by my employer. https://philswatton.github.io/
318 followers446 following413 posts
Back in March we finished a piece of work I led on tampering with generative AI models. The output for this is a summary of the literature aimed at policymakers seeking to build mitigations. This document is now available online here: www.turing.ac.uk/sites/defaul...
God I really love making lists myninebooks.com/g/5ea8401c7899
I wrote up some thoughts on the socioeconomic effect of AI on knowledge work: dysfunctionalprogramming.substack.com/p/ai-and-the...
I think people are right to say there is a third option, but saying so starts from objecting to the combination of "by any any reasonable stabdard" and "very different from us".
Ultimately you get backed into one of two positions: 1) the AIs are, by any reasonable standard, thinking and understanding, albeit in a way very different from us 2) “thinking” and “understanding” require a soul, which we have and they do not The territory between these has basically collapsed
I think people are right to say there is a third option, but saying so starts from objecting to the combination of "by any any reasonable stabdard" and "very different from us".
Ultimately you get backed into one of two positions: 1) the AIs are, by any reasonable standard, thinking and understanding, albeit in a way very different from us 2) “thinking” and “understanding” require a soul, which we have and they do not The territory between these has basically collapsed
But there is a deeper problem where the field as a whole is systematically weak in its methods, leading to this being poorly explained: aiguide.substack.com/p/on-evaluat...
I think people are right to say there is a third option, but saying so starts from objecting to the combination of "by any any reasonable stabdard" and "very different from us".
Ultimately you get backed into one of two positions: 1) the AIs are, by any reasonable standard, thinking and understanding, albeit in a way very different from us 2) “thinking” and “understanding” require a soul, which we have and they do not The territory between these has basically collapsed
I think that LLMs continue to make unhumanlike mistakes which raise the question of whether they do "think" or "undrratand": doi.org/10.48550/arX... aiguide.substack.com/p/do-ai-reas...
Great primer for anyone looking to understand the Saxony-Anhalt result and how to properly contextualise it, along with why the BSW is important to the prospects of an AFD government there
A few thoughts on the role of the BSW in Saxony-Anhalt. Many thanks to @uk.theconversation.com for the quick turnaround. theconversation.com/why-a-small-...
Some reflections on @yuanfenyang.bsky.social's brilliant Rita Hinden memorial lecture hosted by @renewaljournal.bsky.social on ending 40 years of neoliberalism. dysfunctionalprogramming.substack.com/p/embracing-...
Great quote from a 100% correct piece. We know all of our models of the world are wrong, but we still have to do research and take action in the world. How do we balance those concerns?
“…as peer reviewers or question askers at conferences, we must accept that our pet issue is not more important than the other 10 issues and if the analyst has had a good go at handling a bunch of issues, we can’t just pile more and more issues on them to fix. It is impossible.”
Phil Swatton reposted
Oh this is a great piece from @add-hawk.bsky.social making the case that play and games are the meaning of life, drawing on The Grasshopper by Bernard Suits www.ft.com/content/7b95...
Two brief thoughts on why I think it's still worth keeping LLM use out of introductory programming for stats/data science: - You need to be a good programmer to get good code out of an LLM - You need to be a good programmer to evaluate the code you get out of an LLM
Genuinely interested in your views: What is the future of teaching statistical programming language for data science in the age of AI? Will we even still teach programming R or Python?
This leaflet format is the British political equivalent of carcinisation
Behold the by-election catechism: “Only x can win here” “Two horse race” Bar chart (often misleading) - “can’t win here” “Only (our candidate) can beat (candidate you don’t like)” “Vote (our party)” (under breath: don’t waste your time on splitters from (similar party”)
Phil Swatton reposted
Abundantly clear that we are in bloc politics and that Labour's strategy should reflect this. Also very clear that ultimate defeat of the far right in the UK will depend on the UK Conservatives reasserting themselves as the main party of the British right.
Labour lost almost four times as many voters to the Greens as they did to Reform UK in the local elections, according to new YouGov polling
Because I've been doing some work with it, I've written up an applied primer on optimal transport/transportation theory and its applications to measuring dataset distance: philswatton.github.io/2026/04/08/a... Hopefully of use to someone else! Grateful for corrections on typos or misunderstandings
When I think of the notion of 'living in truth' as expressed in Havel's essay and Carney's speech, responses like this are a choice to keep putting up the sign in the shop window www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Another one of my reports written at the Turing is now available online, which is an informal literature review on AI-generated text detection. A brief thread as I've seen some discussion on the topic ⬇️ Link: www.turing.ac.uk/sites/defaul... 1/5
Another one of my reports written at the Turing is now available online, which is an informal literature review on AI-generated text detection. A brief thread as I've seen some discussion on the topic ⬇️ Link: www.turing.ac.uk/sites/defaul... 1/5
This is a great point: anyone who's not been plugged into AI discourse and encounters contemporary models is going to get Eliza'd into Yudkowski-adjacent views on AI safety
If you somebody just showed you the stuff that exists now and you hadn't been immersed in the last few years of hype spirals and calcifying political narratives and slowly-escalating capability it'd scare the shit out of you too.
Think this is basically correct, albeit some are making educated guesses while others are just making guesses.
Anyone confidently asserting they know to win an election is either: 1. a consultant trying to sell you something, 2. a political hobbyist with little direct experience, or 3. a moron Nobody knows. Every single aspect of campaigning is an educated guess by people desperate for some lever to pull.
Great obituary of Habermas by @mattpolprof.bsky.social: jacobin.com/2026/03/habe... I only recently learned of the outline of Habermas' thought after reading Matt's recent review of his career: www.liberalcurrents.com/also-a-revie...
Phil Swatton reposted
As promised, here’s my review of No Second Chances by @morganj0nes.bsky.social. Spoiler alert – I really dislike the extreme, anti-democratic and counter-productive People’s Vote campaign. www.thepathnottaken.net/p/fiasco-the...
Great post. I think the biggest examples of this kind of motivated causal attribution on my side of the aisle is the notion that Russian disinfo changed the outcomes of the 2016 EU Ref/2016 US Presidential election. Disinfo is v. concerning for a variety of reasons, but rarely changes vote choice.
We explain political change using totally different causal models if we approve of outcome of not: 1. Change we like is organic, bottom-up genuine expression of public demand 2. Change we dislike is artificial, top-down result of manipulative elite I’m calling this Motivated Causal Attribution