Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF

@predict-addict.bsky.social

Experienced Data Science Leader | PhD in Machine Learning | 7x Author | Black Belt 🥋 in Time Series | Chief Conformal Prediction Promoter| Mathematician | valeriy.ai

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Did you know the man who trained Moscow’s teachers for forty years left a bank of 1,600 arithmetic problems? Fyodor Egorov spent more than forty years at the Moscow Teachers’ Institute and ran it from 1895. His son Dmitri became one of the founders of the Moscow school of mathematics.

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A pupil has dropped a zero or misread a digit; reconstruct the right result from his faulty working. Railway shares, the silver in a ruble, noon in Riga, Petersburg and Saratov. Poods, versts and sazhens beside meters and kilograms. 149 pages. Pairs with Kiselev’s Arithmetic.

Did you know the man who trained Moscow’s teachers for forty years left a bank of 1,600 arithmetic problems? Fyodor Egorov spent more than forty years at the Moscow Teachers’ Institute and ran it from 1895. His son Dmitri became one of the founders of the Moscow school of mathematics.

This is the problem book the father built for the daily work of the classroom. 1,600 graded problems in whole-number arithmetic. Answers to 1,245, every one checked. What makes it different: Four whole sections on how answers change. What happens to a product when one factor grows?

In 1772 an eye operation left Leonhard Euler almost completely blind. He could still do the mathematics. He could not read it or write it. So he needed someone. Not a copyist — someone who could follow him. Euler turned to his old friend Daniel Bernoulli in Basel.

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Then the application of algebra to geometry — trigonometry, conic sections, and the foundations of the calculus. That trilogy is where Russian school mathematics begins. Kiselev comes after it. The Soviet school comes after Kiselev. Part I — Algebra, 1820.

In 1772 an eye operation left Leonhard Euler almost completely blind. He could still do the mathematics. He could not read it or write it. So he needed someone. Not a copyist — someone who could follow him. Euler turned to his old friend Daniel Bernoulli in Basel.

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Then Euler died in 1783, and the assistant became the scientist. Academician that same year. Professor of mathematics. And from 1800 until his own death in 1826, permanent secretary of the Imperial Academy of Sciences. There is a theorem named after him. A sequence of numbers too.

In 1772 an eye operation left Leonhard Euler almost completely blind. He could still do the mathematics. He could not read it or write it. So he needed someone. Not a copyist — someone who could follow him. Euler turned to his old friend Daniel Bernoulli in Basel.

Bernoulli knew exactly who to send. Nicolas Fuss arrived in St Petersburg in May 1773. He was eighteen. He stayed for the rest of his life. At Euler’s side he helped push more than 250 papers into print. Not transcription — he developed the ideas, built the tables, worked the examples.

A lot of data scientists in 2026 still either skip EDA or do it wrong. They think EDA is about making pretty charts. It is not. EDA is not a gallery of polished plots. EDA is not a box-ticking exercise before modeling. EDA is not “let’s run a few charts and move on.”

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So before you train anything, investigate the world. Not casually. Not cosmetically. Forensically. Pretty pictures are optional. What is not optional is understanding what the data really is, how it came to exist, and how it can mislead you. That is real EDA.

A lot of data scientists in 2026 still either skip EDA or do it wrong. They think EDA is about making pretty charts. It is not. EDA is not a gallery of polished plots. EDA is not a box-ticking exercise before modeling. EDA is not “let’s run a few charts and move on.”

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* Which features would not exist at prediction time? * Where are the regime shifts, bad joins, label issues, and hidden biases? That is what EDA is for. EDA is your first forensic examination of the data-generating process. It helps you uncover things that destroy models in the real world:

* target leakage * temporal leakage * selection bias * survivorship bias * inconsistent labels * unit mismatches * structural missingness * nonstationarity * fake correlations * segment-level failure modes A model can only learn from the world you give it.

A lot of data scientists in 2026 still either skip EDA or do it wrong. They think EDA is about making pretty charts. It is not. EDA is not a gallery of polished plots. EDA is not a box-ticking exercise before modeling. EDA is not “let’s run a few charts and move on.”

The purpose of EDA is to investigate the data like a detective. You need to go **full Sherlock Holmes mode**. Ask: * What is this data actually measuring? * How was it generated? * What is missing, broken, delayed, duplicated, or leaking? * Which patterns are real, and which are artifacts?

@predict_addict · Jan 16 Reading Andrei Markov’s Calculus of Probability feels like drinking from the holy source of probability. After the early spark from Pascal and Fermat, probability theory in Western Europe largely stalled—fragmented, ad-hoc, and philosophically confused for centuries.

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If more people read Markov instead of most modern probability textbooks, we would have fewer conceptual errors, fewer abuses of independence, fewer magical interpretations of probability, and far better scientific reasoning. valeman.gumroad.com/... #math

valeman.gumroad.comThe Calculus of Probabilities (1900) by Andrei Markov [English Translation]Format: Digital edition only. You read it online in Gumroad Reader, in your web browser. The book file cannot be downloaded, and no printed or physical copy...

@predict_addict · Jan 16 Reading Andrei Markov’s Calculus of Probability feels like drinking from the holy source of probability. After the early spark from Pascal and Fermat, probability theory in Western Europe largely stalled—fragmented, ad-hoc, and philosophically confused for centuries.

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Markov is one of the clearest embodiments of that restart. What strikes you immediately is not just the mathematics, but the clarity of thought and writing: no mysticism, no hand-waving, no pretending probability is “obviously” a number in all situations, no cargo-cult formalism.

@predict_addict · Jan 16 Reading Andrei Markov’s Calculus of Probability feels like drinking from the holy source of probability. After the early spark from Pascal and Fermat, probability theory in Western Europe largely stalled—fragmented, ad-hoc, and philosophically confused for centuries.

It wasn’t that nothing happened, but there was no coherent, disciplined probabilistic worldview that could stand on its own as a mathematical theory. In the 19th century, the Russian mathematical school effectively had to start again from first principles.

Forget the faux pas “calculus” marketing product. US universities invented it to charge massive fees and push shallow, overpriced books like Spivak. The real subject is mathematical analysis — the way it was taught for decades in the USSR and China. The iconic book:

Fikhtengol’ts — Foundations of Mathematical Analysis, Volume I 🔥🏆🚀 Lectures by the professor whose students included Sergei Sobolev, Leonid Kantorovich (Nobel Prize in Economics), Pelageya Polubarinova-Kochina and Viktor Ambartsumian.

The most rigorously written introduction to school algebra has six chapters and 126 numbered paragraphs. Signed numbers. Polynomials. Algebraic fractions. Equations of the first degree in one, two, and three unknowns. Square roots. Quadratic equations.

Something unusual just happened. Amazon is promoting my book — and subsidising the print cost. The full-colour premium edition is now <50% of its usual price. No promo on my side. Just the algorithm pushing it. Won’t last.

Forget the faux pas “calculus” marketing product. US universities invented it to charge massive fees and push shallow, overpriced books like Spivak. The real subject is mathematical analysis — the way it was taught for decades in the USSR and China. The iconic book:

Fikhtengol’ts — Foundations of Mathematical Analysis, Volume I 🔥🏆🚀 Lectures by the professor whose students included Sergei Sobolev, Leonid Kantorovich (Nobel Prize in Economics), Pelageya Polubarinova-Kochina and Viktor Ambartsumian.

How Muscovite arithmeticians found “the money in a heap”: Count in 3s — for each coin left over, write 70. Count in 5s — write 21 per coin. Count in 7s — write 15 per coin. Add up. Subtract 105 until you can’t. Remainders 2, 3, 2 → 233 → 23 coins.

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→ Distribution shift, time series and online adaptive methods → Conformal risk control and predictive distributions for real decisions → Vision and language models, deployment monitoring, and four end-to-end case studies

It wraps any model, from linear regression to gradient boosting to deep networks, and returns prediction sets and intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees. The assumptions behind them are stated, and you can test them.

441 pages, 14 chapters and 4 appendices, printed in colour throughout: figures, highlighted code and callouts. Inside: → Classification sets and regression intervals (APS, RAPS, CQR, jackknife+, CV+) → Probability calibration measured against the raw model, including Venn-Abers

The day has come. Thank you to all who supported this book, especially the early supporters. Applied Conformal Prediction is now on Amazon in colour paperback and luxury colour hardcover. The future of uncertainty quantification is bright, the future is #conformalprediction

He was refused his degree for skipping theology lectures. Then he went to Paris and found the divergence theorem. Mikhail Ostrogradsky studied at Kharkov. A reactionary professor accused him of not attending lectures on Christian doctrine.

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Yushkevich argues that Green’s 1828 work does not contain it, and that Poisson presented a similar formula in 1828, after having read Ostrogradsky’s manuscript. Priority in mathematics is rarely simple, and special cases go back further. But the story is extraordinary. It is in A. P.

He was refused his degree for skipping theology lectures. Then he went to Paris and found the divergence theorem. Mikhail Ostrogradsky studied at Kharkov. A reactionary professor accused him of not attending lectures on Christian doctrine.

On 13 February 1826 he presented to the Paris Academy a manuscript stating and proving the formula that turns a volume integral into a surface integral — the result engineers and physicists now usually call Gauss’s or Green’s theorem.