Prune60

Prune60

@prune602.bsky.social

Electrical/Power Systems Engineer, Internationally Recognized Queen of Anglo-Saxonia, “Expert” *sigh* there will be typos and long threads

15.4K followers35 following60.1K posts

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Here is the curve

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

Russian Government Bond Zero Coupon Yield Curve 27 October 2026 (Don’t yell at me for the lack of zero on the axis, this isn’t my graph) 20 year 👉 16.56% 15 year 👉 16.52% 10 year 👉 16.43% cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

Russian Government Bond Zero Coupon Yield Curve 27 October 2026 (Don’t yell at me for the lack of zero on the axis, this isn’t my graph) 20 year 👉 16.56% 15 year 👉 16.52% 10 year 👉 16.43% cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

Russian Government Bond Zero Coupon Yield Curve 26 October 2026 (Don’t yell at me for the lack of zero on the axis, this isn’t my graph) 20 year 👉 16.64% 15 year 👉 16.61% 10 year 👉 16.51% cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

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By doing the 2 day on Monday, which WAS a change in behavior, they avoided that. I don’t know for certain WHY they did a 2 day auction, but if this is the reason…then the questions about banking liquidity might be getting to them.

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

The Russian Central Bank did a 2 day REPO auction today for 0.7 trillion rubles cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

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Let me explain…either way they did it, the end result may have been the same but if the did the 7 day and a 1 day without noticing that the settlement dates were different people would be tempted to add them together.

Here is an example: See how you are tempted to add the numbers together? Even though I added a note on the settlement dates?

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

Today, the Russian Central Bank did a 👉 1 day REPO auction today for 1.71 trillion rubles (that settles today) AND 👉 7 day REPO auction today for 5.6 trillion rubles (that settles tomorrow) cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

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Is it possible they do some sort of coordinated action with banks in order to force placements through? Yes. But if they did it now, it could signal a change in behavior, because they tend to reserve that for the mass placement of variable rate bonds. Not impossible, but a change in strategy.

As a side note…The Russian Central Bank is getting questioned more often about banking liquidity. And I do wonder if the sudden offer of a 2 day REPO was their way of avoiding doing two 1 day auctions, and this people… misinterpreting the total repo amount.

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As we discuss previously, last week there wasn’t enough to demand to meet the total they need to be averaging.

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

Switching to the Accounting Coordinates here’s where they should stand in terms of their goal. They are behind pace (again) and to be clear, this week it wasn’t just them being unhappy about the rates, there wasn’t enough demand at the auction to meet the average they needed per auction.

They couldn’t reach 0.25 trillion

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

What I mean is, even if they accepted every single bid today, they still wouldn’t have gotten the 250 billion they needed to be making on average at every auction day. And they did have enough “in stock” to meet that goal, the demand just wasn’t there.

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Here is the announcement on tomorrow’s auction.

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

The Russian Ministry of Finance will offer 2 Constant Coupon Bonds at Auction on 28 October 2026 👉 PD-26254 👉 PD-26244 minfin.gov.ru/en/document?...

Here’s the data on the bonds. Ballpark guess…If they get good terms, they could get maybe 0.5 trillion towards their Q4 goal if they placed all of this? The problem is the demand. While it’s possible more cash shows up tomorrow to compensate for no auction next week…

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

You can see the details for them on my calculator table. Neither bond has coupon payments remaining in 2026

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Here’s the Banking liquidity table. Check out column 5. This is mostly a result of last week’s 7 day auction and yesterday’s 2 day auction. When the 2 day is up, this 8 day will start and it all ends up close to the same number. cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

While we’re talking banking liquidity… Here is my updated Banking liquidity table, with column 2 sorted in descending order going back to the beginning of 2022. The red values are the month after the 2022 invasion. Purple is October 2026 Orange is September 2026 Yellow is August 2026

The Russian Central Bank did an 8 Day Repo today instead of a 7 day. This was likely done as a result of the Holidays next week. (There won’t be an OFZ auction next week either). Al though this may seem like a jump up, as long as they don’t hold any more shorter term auctions, it’s not really?

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

The Russian Central Bank did a 8 day REPO auction today for 6.5 trillion rubles cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

Prune60 reposted

Replying to @prune602.bsky.social

The electronic budget system shows a 7.42 trillion ruble deficit as of 23 October 2026

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As a side note when I saw that the video was from Al Jazeera my first thought was… 🇶🇦: We bought him a jet and he’s losing in KENTUCKY!? 🤬

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The issues they were mentioned that might help the Democrat win in the Congressional seat were some of the same things that Booker (the Democratic Candidate for Senate) said in his debate with Andy Barr.

They were talking about the congressional seat, that doesn’t have an incumbent because the previous guy is running for Senate. The district also contains Lexington which is the second largest city in Kentucky and home to huge of Kentucky’s Democrats.

Reminder: U.S. Time Change is happening on 1 November 2026. My heart goes out to the parents of small children who won’t get to enjoy the extra hour of sleep 🫂

Russian Government Bond Zero Coupon Yield Curve 26 October 2026 (Don’t yell at me for the lack of zero on the axis, this isn’t my graph) 20 year 👉 16.64% 15 year 👉 16.61% 10 year 👉 16.51% cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...

Prune60@prune602.bsky.social

Russian Government Bond Zero Coupon Yield Curve 23 October 2026 (Don’t yell at me for the lack of zero on the axis, this isn’t my graph) 20 year 👉 16.83% 15 year 👉 16.77% 10 year 👉 16.64% cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/...