ptrdo

ptrdo

@ptrdo.bsky.social

Visualizing for goodness sake.

151 followers410 following457 posts

Half the 2024 citizen electorate was under 50, half over—but turnout climbed from 48% among ages 18–24 to 75% among those 65+. The partisan divide was messier: younger voters leaned Harris, older voters Trump, and the middle split.

Why California is supposedly “slow” to count ballots — the bottleneck is at voter verification. In-person voters are verified BEFORE they vote, but mail-in voters must be verified AFTER they vote, AFTER polls close, and AFTER other ballots are counted.

When districts align with communities of similar voters, they tend to be safe. But when maps are redrawn, voters dispersed into opposition districts create a ripple effect — reassigning an equal number of opposing voters elsewhere. This redistributes margins, making safe districts more competitive.

We usually see congressional district maps as geography. This looks at what happens to the populations inside them—how the same people are grouped or distributed across districts, which can affect how their votes are counted together (or not).

The supposed “inundation” of immigrants during the Biden administration was simply the continuation of normal migration that had been suppressed by the pandemic. Immigration has always existed, is economically beneficial to society, and is the reason the United States exists today. #immigration

The 2020 U.S. presidential election fits within normal historical swing patterns. While often described as unusually large, the 2020 shift is modest compared to past elections—especially 1964—and similar to more recent movements like 2008. #elections

Equal voter loss doesn’t mean equal impact. Large margins absorb it; close races can flip. Because documentation barriers are uneven, they tend to affect some groups more than others—making the overall effect disproportionate. #saveact

Recent elections are often described as statistically implausible or fraudulent, but historically, they look typical. Turnout has modestly increased, and margins tightened, yet nothing suggests ballot stuffing. Overall, U.S. voting patterns have remained remarkably consistent over the past century.

These are the 2024 election results. Some voted for Harris, some for Trump, and some didn’t vote. About 122k fake ballots would be needed to change any number shown—30.8%, 35.7%, 31.7%—even just one of those digits past the decimal. But 2M more fake ballots would be needed to flip the popular vote.

Where voting is harder, fewer people vote. The pattern isn’t perfect—but it’s consistent. Competitive races help, but don’t fully offset the effect. Now note: The SAVE Act intends to make voting more difficult.

Commentary on the 2020 election suggests the results were implausible. However, evaluated as Share of VEP, Biden’s result—34%—falls squarely within the modern historical range. Comparable outcomes include FDR in 1936 (38%), Eisenhower in 1952 & 1956 (35%), LBJ in 1964 (39%), and Nixon in 1972 (34%).

Claims that it’s easy to abide by the SAVE Act miss the point. The issue isn’t whether extra bureaucracy is doable—it’s whether it’s warranted. If the problem is unproven or tiny, but the risk of excluding eligible voters is real and huge, the law’s costs to our Voting Rights outweigh any benefits.

The 2020 election results were not implausible. Measured as a share of the Voting-Eligible Population, Biden’s result—about 34%—is well within modern historical range, comparable to FDR in 1936 (38%), Eisenhower in 1952–56 (35%), LBJ in 1964 (39%), and Nixon in 1972 (34%).

When people are constantly lied to, they don’t begin to believe the lies; they begin to believe that everything is a lie, even the truth…

That Truth Social post is everywhere, and it seems almost fitting, as if Reiner would want it that way—pointing the camera at what we should see.