Rod Alence

Rod Alence

@ralence.bsky.social

Politics and political economy of Africa, based at Wits University in Johannesburg. Sometimes also posts about music, tennis, and basketball.

167 followers105 following338 posts

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

I bought Samir Amin's "Delinked" a couple decades ago in a used-book store in Johannesburg. Just noticed that it seems to be an autographed copy. #booksky

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

Streaming Michigan-Lithuania hoops. Wonder if the Euro stepping Michigan guys realize they are playing against the son of the originator, Sarunas Marciulionis?

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

A tennis hypothetical: Your serving and returning stats are around pro tour averages, as are your opponent's. Before a match, you are offered a 5% (pp) increase either in your first-serve pct or in the pct of points you win off your opponent's second serve. Which should you choose? 🎾 🧵1/4

View full thread
Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

Twist: Tennis scoring means that point-winning effect translates to about double the game-winning effect. Better serve as above would make you about 2% less likely to be broken. Better return would make you about 4% more likely to break. (Confirmed by simulation.) So the better return wins. 4/4

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

Assumptions could vary, but the better return should win in all plausible cases. Counterexample would be a player who has a high-percentage and highly effective first serve but an implausibly poor second serve -- i.e., would be better off hitting two firsts.

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

A tennis hypothetical: Your serving and returning stats are around pro tour averages, as are your opponent's. Before a match, you are offered a 5% (pp) increase either in your first-serve pct or in the pct of points you win off your opponent's second serve. Which should you choose? 🎾 🧵1/4

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

Round but plausible assumptions: 60% 1st serve pct, 70% won on 1st serve, 50% on second. Better serve: 1st serve increases chance of winning point by 20%. 5% more 1st serves gives 0.2×0.05=1% average advantage per point in serving games. 2/4

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

Better return: 40% of serves faced are 2nd serves. 5% improvement in winning these points gives 0.4×0.05=2% average advantage per point in receiving games. That's twice as much as from the better serve. 3/4

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

A tennis hypothetical: Your serving and returning stats are around pro tour averages, as are your opponent's. Before a match, you are offered a 5% (pp) increase either in your first-serve pct or in the pct of points you win off your opponent's second serve. Which should you choose? 🎾

This post is unavailable.
Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

Rubio may be a closet Poulantzian: "Markets are crashing because markets are based on the stock value of companies who today are embedded in modes of production that are bad for the United States." -- Remarks at NATO headquarters, 4 April 2025

independent.co.ukMiliband set to meet Rubio amid Trump fury at his Foreign Secretary appointmentMiliband also called for calm in the conflict between Iran and the US, as Trump threatened to ‘bomb and destroy’ bridges and power stations
Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

One thing I like about all the Czech players, women and men, is that they seem to be products of a coaching system where ridiculous grips are simply not tolerated. 🎾 #wimbledon

Rod Alence
@ralence.bsky.social

During the England-Ghana World Cup game last night, the British commentator said, "Ghana and England have a long history: Ghana's first national coach was English." And I was thinking the history is a lot longer than that.