Ryan Wiley

Ryan Wiley

@rdubwiley.bsky.social

I like math. I like statistics. I like politics. Posts are my own.

334 followers180 following3.2K posts

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Okay, I'm starting to believe in the ghosts of 2008

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

Florida early voting update: Early in-person turnout among Republicans has fallen off a cliff. At R+0.4, the total early vote in the state is about as blue as 2018, 5 points higher than this point in 2022, and 10 points higher than in 2024. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-early...

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

This might be the funniest election of my lifetime

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

Nebraska US Senate Oct 15 - 18, 2026 Dan Osborn (I) 48% (+7.0%) Pete Ricketts (R) 41% Someone else 6% Don't know 5% Concord Public Opinion Partners (A/B) 500 LV Sponsor: Education Reform Now Advocacy (D) View Poll

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Unskewing the polls!

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Mike Johnson: "When I'm in these big arenas, I ask for hands -- 'Show me your hand if you've answered a poll in the last six months.' There will be like three hands among 300 people. I'm telling you, these polls are off. All of them."

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

As your elder millennial the list is essentially Obama and Bill Clinton (just on speaking ability) and the question is if Abdul will join that list.

Sky Marchini@sky.skymarchini.net

I don’t think the young people (ie if you’re under 25 you don’t really remember Obama) realize just how electric a speaker he is

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

I literally went to Horrocks and picked up Jonagolds because of this (this was taped in Ionia!)

Abdul El-Sayed@abdulelsayed.bsky.social

Fall is here. So we can finally talk about this serious topic... Jonagold vs. Honeycrisp apples.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Would recommend eating them this time of year. Definitely need to be used quicker than honeycrisp, but you definitely get all three of the flavor profiles like Abdul is saying here (floral is definitely underrated)

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Not a new tactic (literally happened on the first city council race I worked on in 2013), but my recollections of win rates on this tactic against Dem women are approximately 0%

Charles Ghoul-ba 🎃 ✡️@charlesgaba.com

For those wondering: This is Sarah Pounds, the fantastic Dem running for Michigan HD-054 (which happens to be my district, and which is also the closest state House district in the state).

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

It really backfires from a persuasion perspective, but beyond the intimidation parts of this (shouldn't be underestimated) it really hurts because you can't use you can't really communicate with your candidate on their personal number anymore. Should be illegal to try this.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Really curious how Republicans are going to survive without the decades of "he doesn't believe what he's saying and he'll make us rich" Trump has built up.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

WOW -- Vance *defends* Vivek's reprehensible ad 👇 Q: Ramaswamy's campaign put out a controversial ad featuring his opponent's mother. Some Republicans are backing away. Do you think it was appropriate? JD VANCE: Well, I'll be honest. Whether the ad was appropriate or not is not really my concern.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Pronouns are going back in the email so hard in a few weeks.

Justin Baragona@justinbaragona.bsky.social

And Jan Crawford has deleted her tweet, noting that it was a violation of CBS standards. So as I reported earlier, there was indeed an internal discussion about her tweet, as it was prohibited under the network's standards and practices:

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

I'm going to be very amused as to what happens when Abdul wins because the obvious response to this is "don't start wars of choice in countries that even George W Bush wasn't dumb enough to start?"

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

JD Vance: "I see what Abdul El-Sayed says about the war in Iran. I see him criticizing decisions the president has made, the military has made. But fundamentally we are where we are.I'd like to know what's Abdul El-Sayed's solution for the problem we have right now? It's easy to criticize"

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

You don't start wars like this because the "what we do now" is universally surrender and hope we can convince Israel to stop bombing their neighbors and well....

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Just incredible stuff here from Rogers. Beyond the obvious "really reading the room when premiums have skyrocketed," the ACA made preventative care like physicals co-pay free because it turns out it's way cheaper to find out you have a health condition in your physical than finding it down the line.

Michigan Democrats@michigandems.bsky.social

🚨 LEAKED AUDIO: Mike Rogers says he wants Michiganders to pay more for healthcare. “We need to start changing the way we look at healthcare. If you go up and have to pay the doctor $50 for your annual physical, that’s probably okay, right?”

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

The cost centers in healthcare right now are drugs and labor and your annual physical is cheap on both. Lots going on now, but it is absolutely bizarre to see Senate candidates with no idea about healthcare policy.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Kind of funny that we're oneish Brewers win away from finally ending the talking point that you need a top ten payroll to win a World Series.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Kind of funny what happens when you give voters a straight D/R choice!

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

A new national Fox News poll finds Trump's approval rating at 36%. That's his lowest ever in a Fox News poll over both his terms. And Democrats with a 54/45 lead among registered voters on a generic ballot, strongest of the year.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Can't think of a funnier result of this season than Brewers/Guards world series. I heard you like farm systems!

MLB@mlbbot.bsky.social

The Brewers tack on a huge insurance run in the 8th!

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Benson might do better numbers against James than Whitmer did against Dixon LOL

Chad Livengood@chadlivengood.bsky.social

NEW: John James’ strategy for final weeks includes 'word of mouth' after the Republican Governors Association pared back TV ad spending in Michigan governor’s race www.detroitnews.com/story/news/p...

detroitnews.comJohn James downplays TV spending drop, says people 'tuned out' adsA national Republican group cut back its spending. John James said he plans to use press coverage, social media and "word of mouth" to reach voters.
Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

I think turning significant percentages of the Medicare demographic from Evelyn Normielib to "put them in the Hague" was a big mistake from Republicans.

Abdul El-Sayed@abdulelsayed.bsky.social

Hi Mike Rogers. Here’s a message from me and 783 of my friends in R+32 Ionia County. Good luck out there, habibi.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Sorry, can't find a funnier end to the "Dodgers are a juggernaut that need to be dealt with" saga than the Dodgers seeing five Guardsball singles in a row.

Keith Law@keithlaw.bsky.social

so the final four are * a team that has never won the World Series in its 28 seasons * a team that has never won the World Series in its 57 seasons * a team that hasn’t won the World Series in 77 seasons * Dodgers

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

LOL first question in the spin room asked Abdul about Hasan Piker. This was framed about how it's about as fair as Rogers's connections to Trump.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

How in the hell did Ossoff underperform Clinton in that special election?

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Ossoff says that Mike Collins has "hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office"

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Might take us up to the buzzer, but still a shot that we hit Bush 2008 numbers before the midterms.

Jon Cooper@joncooper-us.bsky.social

A new Pew Research Center poll has Trump’s approval rating plunging to just 30% — his lowest showing in a high-quality poll this term. His previous low was 31% in a recent AP-NORC poll. A whopping 68% of Americans now disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

*whispers* but what if generic ballot is underestimating Dem advantages because the voter's platonic ideal of a Republican candidate is completely divorced from the Republican running in their district (D+14 margin shift in this one).

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

North Carolina House (First Congressional District) Oct 1 - 6, 2026 Don Davis (D) 51% (+10.0%) Laurie Buckhout (R) 41% Neighborhood Research Corporation 303 LV View Poll

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Either polling is absolutely busted or you better get prepared for an absolute freakout when Texas is controlled by a Dem governor (and a Dem legislature hopefully)

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Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

"Chart analysis of inelastic supply shocks" about to have a real hard W

VoteHub@votehub.com

NEWS — Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has suspended the state gas tax of 33¢ for 30 days.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

The theoretical result is that gas prices essentially say the same (people are willing to pay that price) and that it just loses a bunch of tax revenue for no reason. Also call me skeptical that it would work all that well for gas to be $0.30 cheaper when we're in the high fours.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Saw the Trump "paid for the US government" ads during the Lions game, and I'd just like to say: you sure are owning us libs, sir. You should put more money into these ads.

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Conditions are ripe for Blexas and depending on turnout differential Blansas.

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social

Donald Trump's Approval Among Trump Voters: 🟢Approve: 75% (-18) 🔴Disapprove: 22% (+17) YouGov / Sept 21, 2026 (% Change With Jan 28, 2025)

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Begging any Democrat to say that Republicans are hysterical about single toilets in a locked room. You've experienced a unisex bathroom if you've ever visited a rural gas station.

gwen howerton@kissphoria.bsky.social

what is a same sex bathroom dawg

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

It's a Dem internal so *shrugs* but this is the type of polling you would see in a D+10ish environment.

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social

Louisiana - Senate Polling: 🔴 Letlow: 48% 🔵 Davies: 44% Hart Research / Sept 19, 2026 (Davis Internal) (Current model result in LA-SEN is GOP 56% - DEM 35%) usapolling.substack.com/p/the-democr...

usapolling.substack.comThe Democratic Wave Is GrowingPost-Labor Day polling continues to point toward a difficult midterm environment for Republicans
Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Admin is swirling dangerously close to the healthcare breaking of the casino: insurance companies opposing the admin

Kyle Griffin@kylegriffin1.bsky.social

BREAKING WaPo: JD Vance and admin officials are set to announce that they're removing hundreds of thousands of people from Affordable Care Act coverage — claiming that they were fraudulently enrolled in the program, according to three people with knowledge of the forthcoming announcement.

washingtonpost.comTrump officials plan to cut hundreds of thousands from ACA, claiming fraudVance targeted ACA enrollment as part of a broader administration crackdown on suspected fraud.
Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Let's make the pools sicker and drive premiums up!

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Dr Oz says the Trump administration will kick more than a million people off health insurance because some of them have "never filed a claim"

Ryan Wiley
@rdubwiley.bsky.social

Nations are never more united!

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "In January, at my direction, the United States military conducted a massive military operation penetrating deep into the Venezuelan capital ... it was a war. To the victor belong the spoils."