Demography - the flagship journal of PAA

The new issue of Demography includes commentaries & pieces on immigrant lifespans, LGB parenthood aspirations, flood risk & immobility, the safety net around childbirth, parental time & children’s development, sex ratio & elderly employment in China…& much more. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/i...

In “Childcare in Transition,” @anushe.bsky.social, @rebeccasear.bsky.social et al show kids were less likely to get “low- and high-intensity care from their fathers & paternal kin” in town vs. village; maternal kin gave similar care in either. @lshtm.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Youth Subjective Life Expectancy & Early Labor Market Choices”: @lucasfinamor.bsky.social investigates SLE among young workers, finding that it correlates well w/ future pension contributions and formal work engagement. @fgvoficial.bsky.social @theifs.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Does Context Matter for Parenthood Aspirations & Realized Fertility of LGB Individuals?” Gioia Geremia uses HILDA data to assess whether aspirations have changed across cohorts & if there are differences by sexual identity & gender. @cedemografia.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Is All Parental Time Equally Effective?” With LSAC data @hleforner.bsky.social shows that “mothers’ monitoring behavior has a more beneficial effect on…socioemotional skills" & fathers’ monitoring has more impact on verbal skills. @rennesuniv.bsky.social @cnrs.fr read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Flood Risk & Uneven Patterns of Immobility,” Katherine Thomas uses PSID & flood risk data to assess n'hood risk & probability of moving, finding that h'holds in risk areas are ↓ likely to move than those w/o risk, esp renters & Black and low-income homeowners. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“The Glass Is Half Full”: Heflin, @twmorrissey.bsky.social & Kim, assuming full benefit uptake, find “inadequate support to low-income families at childbirth” & recommend ↑ research on mother & newborn health. @syracuseu.bsky.social @au-spa.bsky.social bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “A Comprehensive Evaluation of Population Forecast Error for San Diego County,” G. Schroeder et al. consider forecast horizon, rate of growth, & population size & demonstrate that the length of the forecast horizon is positively correlated w/ forecast accuracy. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“MSE Workflow for Mortality Analysis”: @thegargiulian.bsky.social presents a workflow for “estimating conflict mortality using multiple heterogeneous & statistically biased lists of victims” & applies it to the 1985-2018 conflict in Colombia. @psglshtm.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Equally Available to Anyone,” @dldmagnuson.bsky.social & @stevenruggles.bsky.social describe the story of the invention of the 1st microdata sample in interactions btw Census staff & PAA & how that collaboration “can be a model for preserving broad access." read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Pregnancy Intentions, Race & Ethnicity, & Infant Outcomes”: Among Black & Hispanic mothers, @nickdemark.bsky.social shows that outcomes for wanted pregs were “often statistically indistinguishable” from those for pregs wanted later or unwanted. @uwsoc.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Rising Sex Ratio & Labor Supply of the Urban Elderly in China,” Yunyi Kuang & Liqiu Zhao demonstrate that high sex ratios can result in ↑ marriage costs for the groom’s family, leading to ↓ parental wealth & the need for elderly fathers to continue working. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Within Families, Across Borders”: Minardi, Puschmann & @nicolabarban.bsky.social use crowdsourced genealogies to assess migration & lifespan for cohorts born 1850-1890, finding that migrants had shorter lives than US-born but longer than origin pops. @unibo.it read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Reliability of Repeated Measures of Retrospective Parity,” @karenguzzo.bsky.social et al show that 1 in 5 parents reported a different parity between survey waves, split equally btw “losing” & “finding” a birth. @uncpopcenter.bsky.social @cfdr-bgsu.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Maternal Employment & Children’s Cognitive Ability”: Jia Wang & James Raymo find that regular employment among less educated mothers had a negative impact on kids' cognitive scores & call for research that considers broader gender norms & work-family patterns. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Influence of Societal Changes on the Contribution of Genetics to Fertility Behavior,” @agnesfauske.bsky.social examines the heritability of age at 1st birth & no. of children across Norwegian generations from 1950s onward, finding diffs. by gender & outcome. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Proving Their Loyalty,” Jeff Chan uses a triple-differences model to show that immigrants who served in the US military during World War II were more likely than others to marry native-born partners & become naturalized citizens. @wilfridlaurieruni.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

Shen & Liao revisit the 2017 Gonalons-Pons & Schwartz piece on economic homogamy, particularly the role of assortative mating. GP&S pen a response, and S&L wrap the set w/ a reply. @timliao.bsky.social @pgonalon.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a... read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Role of Infertility & Medically Assisted Reproduction on the Realization of Ideal Family Size”: Lazzari et al. find that for MAR-conceived births, the gap btw ideal & achieved was reduced by a third, with >1/3 of women having infertility worries. @princeton.edu read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

As a member of COSSA, PAA members can register for this webinar tomorrow on OMB's proposed rule.

This issue of Demography includes research notes on 1st births & women’s employment and the role of chronic disease in disability/mortality gaps, plus articles on the Great Recession and fertility, wildfires & birth outcomes, heat waves & urban mortality, & more. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/i...

“Extreme Weather & Mortality”: @frankheiland.bsky.social et al. examine high temps & unclaimed deaths, showing an association w/ ↑ risk of interment unclaimed on Hart Island, NYC. @marxe.baruch.cuny.edu @thegraduatecenter.bsky.social @cunydemography.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Decomposing Differences in Cohort Health Expectancy by Cause & Age”: @suntao-ruc.bsky.social @huipingzheng.bsky.social & @xiaojunwang.bsky.social offer new methods for decomposing cohort HE to “promote a better understanding of how age & disease ... contribute.” read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Effect of First Births on Women’s Employment”: Using CVFS data, Brauner-Otto & Stone show how becoming a mother was assoc. with a “40% decline in employment in the short term & an 8-10% decline in the long term" (from ↑ wage labor & self-employment). @mcgill.ca read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Wildfires & Birth Outcomes,” @conteristo.bsky.social & @mariarubiocab.bsky.social assess how exposure to wildfire & PM2.5 during pregnancy is associated w/ lower birth weight & increased risk of LBW & preterm birth. @mpidr.bsky.social @cedemografia.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Childcare Services & Ukrainian Refugee Mothers in Germany”: Gambaro @mathiashuebener.bsky.social et al explore whether refugee mothers benefit from childcare, finding that it leads to ↑ employment & ↑ German language skills & social contact. @unimainz.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Effect of the Great Recession on U.S. Fertility”: Using a cohort discontinuity design, Wu, @nickdemark.bsky.social & Hill show “strong & credibly causal evidence” that the GR altered fertility behavior, esp. for the youngest cohorts (relative declines of 7-30%). read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Parental Separation & Children’s Peer Relations”: Using data from pairfam, Matthias Pollmann-Schult shows that children experienced a temporary rise in peer rejection following parental separation, largely related to increased socioemotional problems. @UniSiegen read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Dynamic Contributions of Chronic Diseases,” Hui Zheng found half of the ↑ gap in activity limitations was assoc w/ ↑ disability probabilities “linked to mental illness, lung diseases & musculoskeletal conditions” among those w/o a college degree. @utoronto.ca read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Mobility Framing Effects”: @nmurken.bsky.social @jaspertjaden.bsky.social & Schewel show that elicitation of migration aspirations has a dramatic effect, finding a 12-ppt drop in intention when asked abt intention to stay. @rwi.bsky.social @unipotsdam.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In "Gender Differences in Health Reporting,” @annaoksuzyan.bsky.social @minekuhn.bsky.social et al. report little evidence of gender diffs, finding that folks tend to evaluate health more optimistically as they age. @mpidr.bsky.social @sociologytiu.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Cohort Fertility & Couple Educational Pairing”: @linusandersson.bsky.social @marikajalovaara.bsky.social et al. show for the 1st time that the majority of births occur in homogamous or hypogamous unions & those w/ a tertiary-educated partner. @sofi.su.se read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

This issue offers 12 articles & 4 notes, covering the varieties of capitalism & fertility, income growth over the generations, net worth poverty in childhood, contemporary patterns of multiracial marriage & the persistent relevance of marriage for childbearing. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/i...

Big news: Demography met its 2026 funding goal! 🎉 Thanks to institutional subscriptions, all articles published this year will be Open Access—free for everyone. buff.ly/VkahO1e @readdemography.bsky.social #OpenAccess #Demography

“Estimates of Under-Five Mortality From a Mobile Phone Survey”: This study by Julio Romero-Prieto et al. represents “one of the first attempts to collect survival data via mobile phones and to randomize different survey instruments.” @lshtm.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Varieties of Capitalism & Cross-national Variation in Fertility Rates”: M Movahed & E Parrado examine “differences in the institutional characteristics of national economies” & variation in TFR in the Global North. @ucsantabarbara.bsky.social @pennpsc.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Accounting for Population Age Distribution in Forecasting Migration,” Nathan Welch, Hana Ševčíková & @adrianraftery.bsky.social propose a new approach “that incorporates population age structure changes into net migration forecasts." @uwcsde.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Ryder’s Lost Legacy? Cohort Analysis in Social Research”: In exploring Norman Ryder’s influential work (including unpublished papers), Ethan Fosse finds that his approach “is unabashedly cohort-centric, diachronic & straightforwardly descriptive.” @utoronto.ca read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Net Worth Poverty in Childhood,” Gibson-Davis, @lisagennetian.bsky.social et al. use @umpsid.bsky.social data to examine the “role of wealth deprivation across a child’s life course” & assoc. w/ HS graduation & college attendance. @duke-university.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Accounting for Race Response Change in Population Projections”: In response to the need for accurate census data on AIAN populations, Liebler examines how incorporating response change can improve AIAN projections. @umnsociology.bsky.social @minnpop.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Has Generational Progress Stalled?” Kevin Corinth & @jefflarrimore.bsky.social assess whether younger generations are experiencing slower income growth relative to prior generations. They find that "generational progress has slowed, except for Millennials." read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Genes Linked to Educational Attainment & Adult SES Across Birth Cohorts”: @hdobewall.bsky.social, @mariavaalavuo.bsky.social et al. examine whether genetic endowment for high education is assoc. with subsequent socioeconomic outcomes. @invest-flagship.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“Infant Mortality Expectation & Fertility Behavior in Rural Malawi”: A. Delavande, H-P. Kohler & A. Vergili employ MLSFH data to examine the causal link between “subjective expectations about community-level infant mortality & fertility.” read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Impaired Cognitive & Behavioral Functioning in Childhood & Economic Outcomes in Adulthood,” Corman, Noonan & Reichman show that children who test poorly are less likely to graduate HS or be employed & have lower earnings. @princetonecon.bsky.social @nber.org read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

The new FY27 budget plans for NSF to dismantle the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences (SBE) Directorate in FY 2027. Attend this webinar tomorrow (Tuesday, 4/14, 1pm ET) to see how you can help stop and protect the SBE.

“Can Incorporating Parity Improve Reliability of Completed Cohort Fertility Projections?”: Ellison, Bijak & Dodd offer the 1st integrated methodological framework for producing fertility projections by parity. @unisouthampton.bsky.social @oxforddemsci.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Decoupled?: The Persistent Relevance of Marriage for Childbearing in the 2010s,” Kristen Burke of UCF crunches 2006-2023 ACS data & shows that the marital birth rate “has remained remarkably stable” & even increased among inds w/ less than a bachelor’s degree. read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

In “Blurring the Marriage Market? Contemporary Patterns of Multiracial Marriage,” @aarongullickson.bsky.social & J. Bratter find that “shared Black ancestry is the most predictive of union formation” and shared Indigenous ancestry the least. @uoregon.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

“170 Years of Change in Living Arrangements”: @gfloridi.bsky.social & A. Esteve explore the role of mortality decline over time & encourage social scientists to consider how extended life spans can shape arrangements. @uoe-sps.bsky.social @cedemografia.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

Click the link to read the New York Times article based on research published in @readdemography.bsky.social by @vanhookjenny.bsky.social and @nicolekreisberg.bsky.social. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/u...