Rhodium Group

rhg.comHyperscaler Heaven? A Reality Check on India’s AI AmbitionsIndia is building AI compute faster than it can use it as the country experiences a data center boom built on generous policy support. This makes India central to US AI export strategy and economic se...

India is building AI compute faster than it can use it as the country experiences a data center boom built on generous policy support. This makes India central to US AI export strategy and economic security alignment, despite its non-aligned mantra.

rhg.comAll Fun and Games? Modeling Outcomes from the Board of TradeSimulating the Board of Trade's proposed tariff cuts using a leading trade model, we estimate that annual global US goods exports could rise by $10.3 billion and global Chinese goods exports could ris...

Simulating the Board of Trade's proposed tariff cuts using a leading trade model, we estimate that annual global US goods exports could rise by $10.3 billion and global Chinese goods exports could rise by $11.0 billion relative to the status quo.

New: US clean tech manufacturing capacity has expanded since 2025 but the growth occurred as long-term projected demand for those techs was dragged down by policy changes & regulatory headwinds. We compare manufacturing capacity w projected deployment: www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-c...

A standout datapoint from the IMF’s latest WEO forecast was another large upward revision to China’s current account surplus to nearly 4% of GDP per year—or 0.7% of world GDP—through 2030.

The Fund is clearly signaling that large imbalances both within China’s economy and globally are here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Just two years ago, the WEO showed China’s surplus staying within a contained range of 1.2-1.5% of GDP, but the IMF has adjusted its expectations every 6 months since as China’s exports continued their remarkable surge.

Data center investments and power needs are surging at the same time as physical climate risks. Billion-dollar disasters are rising in the US, contributing to power outages, and El Niño’s redistributed weather impacts will only compound these stressors on an already aging grid.

Spending on AI has been pressuring Chinese hyperscalers’ free cash flow from both operating cash flows and capital expenditures.

rhg.comExamining China's AI FinancingWe examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.

Read our full report on financing constraints in China's AI sector:

rhg.comFurnaces, Fossils, and the Future of Chinese Green SteelPolicy in China for steel decarbonization has been more muted, focusing largely on incremental plant-level emissions reductions. Regardless, the role of China looms large over any discussion of steel ...

Policy in China for steel decarbonization has been more muted than in the US and Europe, focusing largely on incremental plant-level emissions reductions. But the building blocks for green steel are being laid now, setting China up to be a major player if that changes. New: rhg.com/research/fut...

impactlab.org451,000 at Risk - Climate Impact LabScientists project that global land temperatures will be 1.2°C/2.1° F above normal in the coming months due in large part to the current “Super El Niño” that began in June and is expected to last thro...

A new report from the Climate Impact Lab finds this year’s Super El Niño is projected to lead to 451,000 deaths from extreme hot days, and also identifies the regions where immediate actions could offer the greatest opportunity to save lives. impactlab.org/research/451...

Since the beginning of this year, most frontier labs and hyperscalers in China have raised model prices. However, even after the price hikes, Chinese frontier models are significantly cheaper than those from US labs.

rhg.comExamining China's AI FinancingWe examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.

Read more about what the price gap means for the financing environment for China's AI companies:

One of the clearest takeaways from our latest analysis on who loses from China's export gains is that economies whose exports are directly competitive or similar to China’s face the biggest potential fallout.

But losses are concentrated in manufacturing economies, like Germany, Japan, Italy, Poland, and the US. Commodity exporters have very little in common with China’s export profile and face low potential losses from the continued growth of China's exports.

rhg.comWho Loses from China’s Export Gains?If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the m...

Read more in our latest note about who loses if China's export market share continues to grow at the same pace it is today:

asiasociety.orgDoes China Really Need to Consume More? A Debate with Nicholas Lardy and Daniel RosenJoin us for a debate on the future of China’s economic growth and whether greater household consumption is essential to sustainable rebalancing.

Join Rhodium Group's Dan Rosen on Wednesday for a discussion with Nicholas Lardy on the future of China's domestic consumption. Tickets available here:

If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the most. (thread)

View full thread

Because the economies with the most to lose are those with similar export profiles to China's, loss of export shares would be particularly concentrated in manufacturing economies like the US and Germany, among others.

These projections should be taken with some salt, but they still illustrate the risks China's growing export share poses to advanced economies that are trying to maintain their industrial bases. Read the note:

But export shares alone present an incomplete picture of the future of global trade, as China's export prices have declined substantially while rising substantially elsewhere, including Germany, the US, and Italy.

The net result of our projection would suggest that China gains around $1.13T in annual export value by 2030 relative to the baseline scenario, while the rest of the world loses around $5.1T, with the G7 accounting for $2.25 trillion of those potential losses alone.

In our latest note, we ask a hypothetical question: What would the world look like if China’s exports kept rising at the same rate they are today? This scenario is purely hypothetical, but it illustrates the risk that continued Chinese export growth poses to advanced economies.

An increase in China’s global export share implies a decline in the rest of the world’s share. By 2030, we estimate that the US could lose 1.2 percentage points (pp) of its share of global trade, Indonesia 0.8pp, Canada 0.5pp, Germany 0.4pp, and the Netherlands 0.4pp.

22 Sept

Guidance from China’s major hyperscalers and telecoms implies 103% y/y growth in AI capex this year to 932 billion yuan ($139B) and over 1.2 trillion yuan ($193B) in 2027, with 39% growth. ByteDance’s upgraded capex plan is the largest marginal contributor this year.

rhg.comExamining China's AI FinancingWe examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.

22 Sept

Read more in our latest report unpacking the financing environment for China's AI companies:

latitudemedia.comWhat EPA’s climate denial means for the energy transitionPost-2030, renewables deployment is highly uncertain.

18 Sept

"Clean energy generation is still expected to surge over the next several years...After 2030, the sector’s growth is a lot more uncertain. While there’s a chance that record clean energy deployment continues, it could also 'slow to a trickle.'" www.latitudemedia.com/news/what-ep...

rhg.comTaking Stock 2026: US Energy and Emissions OutlookWe find that the US is on track to reduce GHG emissions by 27-41% below 2005 levels in 2040, considering all relevant federal and state policies on the books as of June 2026.

18 Sept

Featuring Rhodium's recent Taking Stock outlook for the future trajectory of the US energy system and greenhouse gas emissions under all current federal and state policy: rhg.com/research/tak...

17 Sept

Annual recurring revenues (ARR) of China's frontier labs and hyperscalers’ AI model businesses have surged this year, but the total ARR for all of China’s AI models was still only around $10.7 billion, or around 10% of the recently reported levels of OpenAI and Anthropic.

rhg.comExamining China's AI FinancingWe examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.

17 Sept

Using ARR as an aggregate revenue metric is highly imperfect, of course, but it is used widely to capture trends in rapidly growing firms. Read more in our latest report on China's AI financing:

rhg.comExamining China's AI FinancingWe examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.

17 Sept

US-China competition on AI is one of the biggest stories today, but there has been little focus on how China’s AI firms are financing their own expansion, or how constraints on compute and finance interact in China’s market. Our latest report explores just that:

14 Sept

Global investment in clean technology manufacturing and industrial facilities fell 14% in Q1 and another 7% in Q2 2026, continuing a downward trend underway since late 2023. Solar manufacturing accounted for a large share of the decline.

cleaninvestmentmonitor.orgClean Investment Monitor: Global H1 2026 UpdateGlobal clean technology investment lost momentum in the first half of 2026 after several years of relatively steady growth. Investment fell 28% from Q4 202

14 Sept

For the first time, China’s share of global clean tech manufacturing and industry investment dipped below one-third, although the slowdown follows years of heavy investments that have left China dominant across all major clean tech supply chains. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/glob...

11 Sept

Across China's chemical industry, between 2021 and 2025, operating profits fell by 55% and revenues barely grew, yet liabilities increased by 43% according to data from the NBS.

rhg.comThe Banks Behind the China ShockBeijing has not delivered on its promised reforms to its banking system, but has instead tightened control over banks and molded them into policy tools, imposing consequences on both China's economy a...

11 Sept

This has been made possible by Chinese banks keeping “zombie firms” alive through repeated loan rollovers, creating a deflationary spiral across the economy. Read more about how China's banks function as a policy tool:

Beijing has not delivered on its promised reforms to its banking system, but has instead tightened control over banks and molded them into policy tools, imposing consequences on both China's economy and its trading partners.

The pace of global clean tech investment growth is leveling off after years of relatively steady expansion. From 2018-2025, investment experienced a relatively steady upward trend. That momentum may be flagging somewhat as investment in Q1 and Q2 2026 crept back to levels last seen in 2024.

China accounted for 88% of the global clean investment decline in Q1 2026, with investment down by half from Q4 2025 and 19% below Q1 2025. This came after a surge in Q4 2025 investment ahead of reduced subsidies and incentives supporting renewables and EVs.

Learn more in the Clean Investment Monitor's new Q1 and Q2 2026 update to our global and country-level tracking of investment in clean tech manufacturing, low-carbon industry, electric power, and clean transportation www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/glob...

2 Sept

Has China made more progress toward consumption-led growth than commonly recognized? Join Rhodium Group's Daniel Rosen on September 30 at @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org for a discussion with PIIE's Nicholas Lardy on China's consumption:

cbm.rhg.comChina Doubles Down on Mining: Q2 2026 UpdateMining dominated announced Chinese outbound investment in Q2 2026, driven by new acquisitions and the expansion of previously acquired operations. Automotive investment is gradually recovering, led by...

28 Aug

Chinese FDI in US clean tech suffered a flurry of divestment in Q2 2026: Boviet Solar, JinkoSolar, and AESC partly or fully sold their plants in North Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee. See the latest on Chinese investment:

rhg.comCritical Mineral Chokepoints Could Threaten the US Nuclear Energy RenaissanceWe provide a granular, product-specific assessment of critical minerals needed for a US nuclear power plant build-out through the mid-2030s and associated key supply chain vulnerabilities.

24 Aug

Nuclear energy capacity is poised to expand in the US if the government and industry can overcome supply chain and financial barriers. However, this energy renaissance will only be possible if key investments are made in precise segments of the critical mineral value chain.

13 Aug

In new analysis, we calculate the critical mineral requirements for a US nuclear build-out of Generation 3+ reactors. A careful review of supply chains reveals potential chokepoints, especially if there is a surge in demand from a large number of nuclear projects. rhg.com/research/cri...

11 Aug

In the second quarter of 2026, clean energy and transportation investment in the US totaled $75 billion, a 22% increase from Q1 2026 and the second-highest quarter of investments on record. The increase was largely driven by consumer spending on clean technologies.

11 Aug

Zero-emission vehicle sales increased 28% from Q1 2026, but was down 3% relative to Q2 2025. Distributed electricity generation and storage investment reached nearly $12 billion in Q2 2026, marking the highest quarter on record, with residential battery storage installations accounting for 75%.

cleaninvestmentmonitor.orgClean Investment Monitor: US Q2 2026 UpdateIn the second quarter of 2026, clean energy and transportation investment in the United States totaled $75 billion, a 22% increase from Q1 2026 and a 4% ju

11 Aug

Manufacturing investment increased 4% from Q1 2026, breaking a six-quarter streak of declines, but down 24% relative to Q2 2025. $25bn was invested in clean energy production and industrial decarbonization in Q2 2026, remaining flat from Q1. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q...

bloomberg.comWatch Rhodium: China Leads US in Key Tech Stack Areas - BloombergA Rhodium Group analysis shows China leads the US and other G7 nations in several key areas of AI development, despite lagging behind in chips. Reva Goujon, a director at the group and co-author of th...

5 Aug

Reva Goujon joined Bloomberg's David Ingles and Avril Hong to discuss our latest report on why policymakers need to broaden their lens to the full stack when it comes to AI competition with China: