Rob T

Rob T

@robtfpl.com

Sharing market data to help with fantasy football decisions | FPL projections for @solioanalytics.com

5.6K followers183 following626 posts

The ‘scouting bonus’ in #WCFantasy seems fun We made a small, free tool to track: ✅ newly eligible players 📉 players drifting <5% 📈 players drifting >5% ⭐ your team/watchlist Updates dynamically - could be total chaos near tomorrow’s deadline 😅 👉 wcfscouting.solioanalytics.com

💹 Market odds – final update | GW38 A look at the latest projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's final round of PL games Solio tool will reflect the latest market projections until the #FPL deadline - good luck all!

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW38 Site reflects latest updates - some of the current top projected players & an example FH team, pending late team leaks! 👇 Projections update until deadline and always reflect latest market numbers 👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

💹 Market goal projections | GW38 For the final time this season... spread market goal projections for this round of PL games, via SpreadEx Markets based on assumption that a player starts - filtered for potential starters, but this is obviously a tricky week to call!

💹 PL Matchups - First Look | GW38 First look at the sharp market projections for #FPL GW38, ahead of a Sunday's final deadline 👇

💹 Market odds – final update | GW37 A look at projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline A Premier League season-high goals projection for Arsenal against Burnley

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW37 Site updated after pressers - some of the current top projected players & an example FH team 👇 Projections update until deadline if you're looking at captaincy, last minute moves or benching headaches! 👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

One #FPL reason to consider saving a FT this week: GW38 could throw up some big motivation mismatches Our sims suggest several fixtures may end up with one team still in play vs an opponent already “on the beach” 👇 Expect projections to shift depending on GW37 & cup results!

📊 Projected goals & clean sheets | GW37+38 Updated projections for the final 2GW of the #FPL season from sharp betting markets & our Solio team strength model 👇 Arsenal’s GW37 goal projection is currently higher than most teams’ GW37+38 total 😅

💹 Market odds – final update | GW36 Final look at projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline Some of the changes from first look: EVE (CRY-A) 📈 +0.10 BHA (WOL-H) 📈 +0.07 LIV (CHE-H) 📉 −0.11 TOT (LEE-H) 📉 −0.08

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW36 Site updated after pressers - a look at some of the current top projected players & an example FH team MCI+CRY players dominate - but very mins dependent! Projections update until tomorrow's deadline: 👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

💹 Market goal projections | DGW36 Spread market goal projections for this round of games, via SpreadEx Markets based on assumption that a player starts - assumes two starts for DGW players (so e.g., Mateta, JSL + Sarr are best case scenario!)

💹 PL Matchups - First Look | GW36 First look at the sharp market projections for #FPL DGW36, ahead of a Saturday deadline 👇

After the last round of games, we make it ~45% that the title race will be decided before the final GW Table shows odds that each team is locked into an 'outcome tier' before each #FPL GW, based on updated simulations 👇

📊 Projected goals & clean sheets | GW36-38 Updated projections for the final 3GW of the #FPL season from sharp betting markets & our Solio team strength model 👇 DGW36(*) fixtures show total projected goals & odds of 1+CS%

💹 Market odds – final update | GW35 Final update on projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline Some of the changes from first look: LEE 📈 +0.09 CHE 📈 +0.06 BUR 📉 −0.07 WHU 📉 −0.07

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW35 Minutes updated after press conferences - a look at some of the current top projected players & an example FH team Model is high on Leeds for this evening's game! Projections update until deadline: 👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

💹 Market goal projections | GW35 Spread market goal projections for this round of games, via SpreadEx - markets based on assumption that a player starts

Updated "on the beach" simulations 🏖️ Likelihood that a team will be mathematically locked into an outcome tier before each #FPL GW 👇

More to play for: - Title race (MCI, ARS) - Relegation race (TOT, WHU) - UEL/UECL race (BHA, BOU, CHE, BRE, FUL, EVE) Less to play for (>95% to finish in current "tier"): - Relegated (WOL, BUR) - Very likely UCL (MUN, LIV, AVL) - Mid-table "dead zone" (SUN, CRY, NEW, LEE, NFO)

Palace availability, minutes + output data from the last 12GW, with an eye on #FPL DGW36 👇 Next three PL games are all 3-day rests 🟠 30-Apr: UECL SF1 (Shakhtar-A) 🔴 3-May: PL GW35 (BOU-A) 🟠 7-May: UECL SF2 (Shakhtar-H) 🔴 10-May: PL GW36a (EVE-H) 🔴 13-May: PL GW36b (MCI-A)

📊 Projected goals & clean sheets | GW35-38 Projections for the final 4GW of the #FPL season from sharp betting markets & our Solio team strength model 👇 DGWs (*) show odds of 1+CS%

💹 PL Matchups - First Look | GW35 Early look at the sharp market projections for #FPL GW35, ahead of another Friday deadline 👇

💹 Market odds – final update | GW34 Final update on projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline Some of the changes from first look: TOT 📈 +0.09 FUL 📉 -0.06 CRY 📉 −0.06 EVE 📉 −0.05

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW34 Minutes updated after press conferences - a look at some of the current top projected players & an example FH team Endless variations of very similar scoring teams! Projections update until deadline: 👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

💹 PL Matchups - First Look | BGW34 Early look at the sharp market projections for the seven-game slate in #FPL GW34, ahead of the Friday deadline 👇

Early🧵to highlight some of the more reliable #FPL picks from key BGW34 teams Playing time & output over the last 12GWs 👇 1) LIV (CRY-H) - Virgil goal threat & DEFCON - Salah hard to ignore; Szobo mins + set pieces; Wirtz & Gakpo viable options - Isak still building fitness?

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4) TOT (WOL-A) - Porro set pieces & some creative threat; Danso high DEFCON potential when starting - Not much to get excited about in midfield - Xavi Simons maybe an outside shout? - Solanke dependable for starts so far since his return

5) AVL (FUL-A) - Cash on LHS corners but limited upside; little to get excited about out in defence - Tielemans DEFCON potential & some set pieces; Rogers ever-reliable for mins and steady output - Watkins always a solid option, but rarely finishes the game with Abraham subs

Early🧵to highlight some of the more reliable #FPL picks from key BGW34 teams Playing time & output over the last 12GWs 👇 1) LIV (CRY-H) - Virgil goal threat & DEFCON - Salah hard to ignore; Szobo mins + set pieces; Wirtz & Gakpo viable options - Isak still building fitness?

2) ARS (NEW-H) - Raya the safe pick, Gabriel a no-brainer; Saliba safe but lower upside; other DEF mins risky - Rice set pieces & some DEFCON upside; Eze solid when he starts but riskier for mins; Saka unlikely to be fit - Havertz/Gyo - too much uncertainty over starts?

3) MUN (BRE-H) - Hard to get too excited about the GK/DEF - Bruno the obvious pick and likely captain; Mbeumo better underlyings, Cunha more points - small mins risk for Bryan?; Casemiro defying logic weekly! - Sesko decent ouput when he starts, but likely too risky

💹 Market odds – final update | GW33 Final update on projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline Some of the changes from first look: CHE 📈 +0.09 BHA 📈 +0.09 NEW 📉 −0.13 LIV 📉 −0.13

Still undecided on GW33 transfers or your Free Hit team? Here's a detailed look at our top projected players from each position - plus the underlying numbers that go into those projections! 1) Our top #FPL defender picks 👇

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW33 Minutes updated after press conferences - a look at some of the current top projected players & an example FH team Lots of very similar scoring variations this week! Projections update until deadline: 👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

💹 Market goal projections | GW33 Spread market goal projections for this round of games, via SpreadEx - markets assume a player starts (or 2 starts for DGW) For DGW players, midweek projections are estimated from team goal markets & player goal share from fixture one

📊 Projected goals & clean sheets | GW33-38 Latest projections from sharp betting markets & our Solio team strength model - hopefully useful for navigating the last 6GWs of the #FPL season! 👇 (Assumes MCI-CRY→36, 1+CS% shown for DGW)

Updated simulations after GW32 👇 Main changes: - Title race tightening → ARS & MCI more likely to go deep (good for BB36/TC36) - MUN less likely to secure top 5 early - LEE (relegation race) & NEW (UEL/UECL) at higher risk of having nothing to play for late

Rob T@robtfpl.com

Which teams might be "on the beach" before the season ends? 🏖️ Simulating the PL run-in → % chance teams are mathematically locked into an outcome tier (title, Europe, relegation, etc) by each #FPL GW Ordered by most at risk 👇

💹 PL Matchups - First Look | DGW33 Early look at the sharp market projections for #FPL GW33, ahead of the Saturday deadline 👇 (re-posted because there was a GW typo in the first image and it would have annoyed me forever 😅)

Arteta & April discourse back after yesterday In PL only (CL/cups skew it) and vs markets, it looks bad on the surface But month-to-month swings are common & it doesn't reach statistical significance. Never quite enough data with these things to be sure about signal v noise 😅

💹 Market odds – final update | GW32 Final update on projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline Some of the changes from first look: WHU 📈 +0.09 NEW 📈 +0.06 LIV 📉 −0.07 TOT 📉 −0.07

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW32 Minutes updated after press conferences - these are the current top projected players & an example WC32/BB33/FH34 team ahead of today's deadline 👇 Projections will auto-update until deadline 👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

💹 Market goal projections | GW32 Spread market goal expectations for this round of games, via SpreadEx - markets assume a player starts *No SUN-TOT player goal markets currently available

💹 Rest of season projected goals + assists One last look at these.... How many goals + assists do spread markets think attackers will deliver from now until the end of the season? (See footnote for missing player markets)

Which teams might be "on the beach" before the season ends? 🏖️ Simulating the PL run-in → % chance teams are mathematically locked into an outcome tier (title, Europe, relegation, etc) by each #FPL GW Ordered by most at risk 👇