Robbie Gower

essentiallysports.comAdel AhmadAdel is an NBA Analyst at EssentiallySports with over five years of experience covering the league through a blend of sharp analysis and narrative-driven storytelling. His work focuses on player devel...

Is “Adel Ahmad” a real person or is this “sportswriter” AI? I keep seeing “his” articles on these websites like SI and Heavy and they are nonsensical clickbait I realize this is a niche question but am baffled by this “content” Link: www.essentiallysports.com/author/adel-...

The top 53 players who will be free agents next summer if they don’t sign an extension before then (includes players with 2027-28 player or team options that will likely be declined next summer): 1 Nikola Jokic 2 Giannis Antetokounmpo 3 Kevin Durant 4 LeBron James 5 Jimmy Butler 6 Kyrie Irving

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24 C.J. McCollum 25 Fred VanVleet 26 Bilal Coulibaly 27 Brandin Podziemski 28 Jaime Jaquez Jr 29 Kevin Porter Jr 30 Ryan Rollins 31 Jarace Walker 32 Paul Reed 33 Kris Dunn 34 Donte DiVincenzo 35 Davion Mitchell 36 Max Strus 37 De’Andre Hunter 38 Zach LaVine 39 Duncan Robinson 40 Tim Hardaway Jr

41 Jake LaRavia 42 G.G. Jackson 43 Noah Clowney 44 Kris Murray 45 Keon Ellis 46 Max Christie 47 Miles McBride 48 Jamal Shead 49 Dereck Lively II 50 Moussa Diabate 51 Deandre Ayton 52 Derrick Jones Jr 53 Rui Hachimura This list assumes Jalen Duren gets signed to an extension (he’s not on the list)

7 Karl-Anthony Towns 8 Damian Lillard 9 Brandon Miller 10 Michael Porter Jr 11 Tyler Herro 12 R.J. Barrett 13 Dejounte Murray 14 Cason Wallace 15 Anthony Black 16 Scoot Henderson 17 Ty Jerome 18 Cameron Johnson 19 Josh Hart 20 Lu Dort 21 Miles Bridges 22 Keldon Johnson 23 Draymond Green

Some trades that the Memphis Grizzlies can execute before opening night that will squeeze assets (players, draft picks) from teams that are desperately trying to avoid the 2026-27 luxury tax:

- Jaden Hardy - Jordan Hawkins - D’Angelo Russell - Olivier-Maxence Prosper - Micah Peavy Memphis Grizzlies opening night roster (excludes two way players): starting lineup G Ty Jerome G Cedric Coward F Jerami Grant F Cam Boozer C Zach Edey

reserves Isaiah Stewart Jaylen Wells Quinten Post G.G. Jackson Scottie Pippen Jr Jarace Walker Taylor Hendricks Walter Clayton Jr Julian Strawther Karim Lopez

Some trades that the Memphis Grizzlies can execute before opening night that will squeeze assets (players, draft picks) from teams that are desperately trying to avoid the 2026-27 luxury tax:

3 one or more 2nd round picks to IND; Jarace Walker to Memphis. Indiana is presently over the luxury tax line but would be able to (just barely) avoid the luxury tax even after signing one minimum salary free agent by making this trade. Walker is on Year 4 of his rookie contract, 23 years old.

4 Cam Spencer to Denver; 2032 SAC 2nd + 2033 DEN 2nd to Memphis. Alleviates the logjam at G for Memphis + squeezes two more 2nds out of Denver. After making these four trades, Memphis would have 20 players on standard contracts. These are the five players Memphis would waive before opening night:

Some trades that the Memphis Grizzlies can execute before opening night that will squeeze assets (players, draft picks) from teams that are desperately trying to avoid the 2026-27 luxury tax:

1 Kris Murray to the Lakers; 2031 WAS 2nd and/or 2032 WAS 2nd + Jaden Hardy to Memphis. This trade gives the Lakers a likely rotation player + more importantly it gets the Lakers below the luxury tax line. Lakers would waive either Bronny James, Dalton Knecht, or Adam Thiero before opening night.

2 2033 OKC 2nd to Denver; 2031 SAC 2nd + Julian Strawther to Memphis. Strawther is on Year 4 of his rookie contract, 24 years old, has the potential to be a solid rotation player over the next 6+ years. Denver has to dump either Strawther or DaRon Holmes II in order to avoid the second apron.

The New Orleans Pelicans can get themselves below the luxury tax line and the roster down to 15 standard contracts by trading one of these players for maybe a 2nd, maybe a highly protected 2nd (i.e., for nothing): Jordan Hawkins Saddiq Bey Yves Missi Bryce McGowens Karlo Matkovic

I predict NOP is the team that trades for Michael Porter Jr assuming Porter Jr isn’t extended by Brooklyn and perceived as a keeper by Brooklyn The midseason trade will imo be: draft pick compensation (at least one 1st, maybe only one 1st) + Poole + A.J. Johnson to BRK; Porter Jr to NOP

post-trade starters for NOP G Dejounte Murray G Trey Murphy III F Michael Porter Jr F Zion Williamson C Derik Queen key reserves Herb Jones Bennedict Mathurin Saddiq Bey Yves Missi Jeremiah Fears remaining players Trendon Watford Karlo Matkovic Bryce McGowens DeAndre Jordan play-in team?

At this point we should expect NOP just enter the regular season $3,753,245 below the tax line with these 15 standard (non-two way) contracts: Z Williamson J Poole D Murray T Murphy III H Jones J Fears B Mathurin S Bey D Queen D Jordan Y Missi A.J. Johnson B McGowens T Watford K Matkovic

And in late December or so, if they are so inclined, they can start looking at making a midseason trade to improve the team’s chances at making the playoffs, where they ship out draft picks + the expiring contracts of Jordan Poole and A.J. Johnson for up to $41,035,006 in 2026-27 salaries

G Dejounte Murray G Trey Murphy III F Michael Porter Jr F Zion Williamson C Derik Queen/Yves Missi

Sadly NOP had to attach 2nd round pick compensation + Peavy in order to get off Hawkins’ contract + get below the tax line NOP now $3,753,245 below the tax line And positioned to trade draft pick compensation + the expiring contracts of Jordan Poole + A.J. Johnson for a good, big salary player

Then NOP is in a position to trade maybe some draft capital + the expiring contracts of Jordan Poole + D’Angelo Russell for a player (or players) with 2026-27 salary (or salaries) of up to $41,617,366 and after this trade NOP would remain below the tax line

Possibilities: Grayson Allen (+ filler (Grant Williams + Pat Connaughton) Tyler Herro (+ filler (Jericho Sims)) Jrue Holiday Brandon Ingram Michael Porter Jr Holiday would be great but I doubt Portland would do it Milwaukee probably views Herro as a keeper Porter Jr makes a lot of sense

Don’t really believe any team wants Hawkins; New Orleans would need to themselves attach a 2nd Don’t think NOP wants to trade Bey or Missi Don’t see any team wanting McGowens really But there are going to be teams that would give up a 2nd for Matkovic, a solid backup C

HOWEVER… if Memphis is thinking that maybe Jordan Hawkins is a salvageable prospect who might benefit from a change of scenery, and would happily take him if they aren’t giving up anything valuable, this trade works:: Hawkins + McGowens for D’Angelo Russell Gets NOP ~$1.6M below the tax line

I see a lot of articles/discussion about how the Lakers need to figure out which player to cut (they currently have 16 standard contract players, a team can only carry 15 once the regular season begins). This is not the issue. The issue is that the Lakers need to get below the luxury tax line.

Vanderbilt + Hardy + Bronny + maybe one 2nd to DAL; Daniel Gafford to LAL A true salary dump by DAL; Gafford’s contract given his inability to stay healthy is terrible Vanderbilt + one 2nd to DAL; Caleb Martin to LAL Adds ~$3.9M in 2027-28 team salaries for DAL hence the 2nd round pick

Vanderbilt + Hardy + one or two 2nds to MIL; Caris LeVert to LAL Vanderbilt + Hardy + Knecht + maybe one 2nd to SAC; Malik Monk to LAL Reduces SAC’s 2027-28 team salaries (assuming SAC declines Knecht’s 2027-28 team option) by ~$8.3M, not an insignificant amount of money

Other trades that get LAL below the 2026-27 luxury tax line that would be in the best interest of their trade partner: Vanderbilt + Hardy + cash to Brooklyn; Tre Mann to the Lakers Trims ~$2.7M from Brooklyn’s 2027-28 team salaries; BRK would waive Hardy, Lakers would not need to waive anyone.

Vanderbilt + one or two 2nds to CHA; Royce O’Neale to LAL O’Neale might start for the Lakers! Vanderbilt + two 2nds to CHI; Jalen Smith to LAL Vanderbilt + Hardy + Bronny + two 2nds to DAL; P.J. Washington to LAL Salary dump for DAL for the most part; Washington definitely a starter for LAL

Vanderbilt also would not add much (only $260,714) to Atlanta’s 2027-28 team salaries. This trade is a (small) win for Atlanta. And this trade moves the Lakers below the 2026-27 luxury tax line (by ~$1.8M), and they can waive either Nembhard, Knecht, or Bronny in order to get down to 15 players.

So we should be looking for the Lakers to make one of these two types of trades, either a) a Knecht or Bronny salary dump, where the Lakers do not give up any draft picks at all, or b) a trade involving Vanderbilt, where the Lakers do give up one or two 2nds but receive a potential rotation player.

Here is an example of this sort of trade: Vanderbilt + Hardy + one or two 2nd round picks to Atlanta Corey Kispert + Ryan Nembhard to the Lakers Atlanta would presumably want either the 2031 WAS 2nd, the 2032 WAS 2nd, or both. Kispert is likely a non-rotation player for Atlanta.

Atlanta would get one or two valuable 2nds (WAS is a terrible organization and so their 2nds always figure to be in the #31-#40 overall range), would not add much to their 2026-27 team salaries, and would not push Atlanta over the tax line. Vanderbilt might even play for Atlanta.

Ideally, the Lakers trade either Knecht or Bronny to a team and in this trade the Lakers DO NOT give up any draft picks at all. This is the goal. However if this was going to happen, I believe that it would have already happened. [I could be wrong.]

The next best option is a trade where the Lakers trade Vanderbilt, possibly with some combination of Hardy, Knecht, and Bronny attached, for a player who can be a rotation player for the Lakers, a player who would be the best player in this trade. Lakers might need to attach one or two 2nds.

So, no team is going to be interested in trading for Vanderbilt without receiving some draft pick compensation from the Lakers in return. Knecht has a 2027-28 team option that will likely be declined. If there was a team willing to absorb Knecht’s contract via trade, it would’ve already happened.

It should go without saying that no team is interested in absorbing Jaden Hardy (owed $6.0M in 2026-27, $0 after 2026-27) without the Lakers sending this team draft pick compensation. Is there a team that would take Bronny (only owed ~$2.3M in 2026-27) if this team can get him for free? Possibly!

Lakers are presently slightly ($469,322) over the luxury tax line, and are trying to make a trade that gets their team salaries below the luxury tax line. They can’t accomplish this by simply waiving a player otherwise Jaden Hardy would have already been waived.

The obvious trade candidates (guys who are obviously expendable as they do not figure into either the Lakers’ short term or long term plans) are: Jarred Vanderbilt Jaden Hardy Dalton Knecht Bronny James Vanderbilt is perpetually injured and he can’t shoot, and is owed ~$13.3M in 2027-28.

Seemingly available players who fit into Utah’s $15,054,411 traded player exception in case Utah decides it’s not done with its offseason moves: Saddiq Bey Goga Bitadze Gradey Dick Dorian Finney-Smith Buddy Hield DaRon Holmes II Bronny James Derrick Jones Jr Corey Kispert Dalton Knecht (continues)

New Orleans can keep offseason acquisition Trendon Watford and dodge the luxury tax by trading either Saddiq Bey or Karlo Matkovic for a 2nd (or 2nds) Memphis wouldn’t turn down a 1st for Isaiah Stewart although with its PG surplus Memphis is more inclined to trade Scotty Pippen Jr or Cam Spencer

Oh and I should add that there are a number of permutations here where Utah can add more than one of the above players If they were to add one player, Mo Bamba probably the odd man out in Utah If they add two players, Bamba and presumablyeither Svi Mykhaliuk or Harrison Ingram are out

Denver desperately wants to avoid the second apron, can do so by trading either Julian Strawther or DaRon Holmes II for a 2nd Milwaukee has multiple intriguing young point guards, does not seem to view Kevin Porter Jr as part of the foundation Miami avoids the luxury tax by dumping Bobby Portis Jr

Orlando reduces its luxury tax penalty by trading Goga Bitadze (their third string C after signing Nikola Vucevic) for a 2nd Golden State avoids the luxury tax altogether by trading the injured Moses Moody for 2nds

Atlanta would love to get a 2nd or two for Buddy Hield, would give Corey Kispert away effectively for free Clippers would give Gradey Dick away effectively for free, would love to get 2nds for either Derrick Jones Jr or Brook Lopez Lakers avoid luxury tax by trading either Dalton Knecht or Bronny