Rajesh Raut

26 July

A fool and his money is soon SpaceX'd.

5 May

Should we call Pete Hegseth the Secretary of Ceasefires, since we are totally not at war with Iran according to Trump.

29 Apr

Iran has larned from the Russian lesson. Trump campaigned on negotiating an end to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, by surrendering large parts of Ukraine. Russia has participated in multiple rounds of negotiations with the Trump administration, without any effect on the battlefield. Buying time works.

19 Apr

Once bankruptcy was a threat that creditors used to force payment from businesses who were delinquent. Yes, I am old enough to remember those days but not old enough to participate. Now businesses threaten their creditors with filing for bankruptcy and proposing a hostile restructuring plan.

19 Apr

I wonder if you could track the ratio of voluntary to involuntary bankruptcy filings and how it has changed over the last fifty years. #econsky

open.substack.comArteries of Exchange -10The Global Advantage—Stabilizing the Dollar for the Next Century

10 Apr

Final post in my debt management series. open.substack.com/pub/rrocket8... #econsky

9 Apr

Before Ceasefire: Ships pay IRGC to pass through Strait of Hormuz. After Ceasefire: Ships pay IRGC to pass through Strait of Hormuz. Mission Accmplished! Let's bring the troops home.

7 Apr

In giving Iran a deadline, Trump has put his entire creditability on the line, so the stakes are tiny, some might say microscopic.

3 Apr

Trump administration motto: With imagined authority comes total irresponsibility.

open.substack.comThe Stability TrapRealigning Risk, Wages, and the Minsky Cycle

3 Apr

Introducing Stochastic Frictions to break the Minisky Cycle open.substack.com/pub/rrocket8... #econsky

2 Apr

We have entered the AI era: American Dream or American Hallucination?

1 Apr

On Feb 28, Israel and the U.S., began a bombing campaign in Iran. During the two sessions in March, the CCP adopted a five year plan, because the inability to buy oil from the Persian gulf has no affect on the Chinese economic trajectory.

1 Apr

If Hungary invades Ukraine, will Poland intervene? Polish claims to the territory Hungary is after is stronger than Hungary's. Austria-Hungary stole the land from Poland.

Like most drugs, the patient slowly builds up a resistance to propaganda, not quickly, not noticeably at first, but over time is requires stronger and stronger doses to achieve the desired response. 1/5

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.So the media switched horses in mid-stream, Biden's re-election was canceled in mid-season for abysmal ratings, Donald Trump promised to deliver unicorns and rainbows. Cue Huey Lewis and the News " I want a new Drug" 4/5

Now Americans, finding no relief at the grocery store or the gas pump and watching new forever war unfold before their eyes, are beginning to doubt. They are gathering in rallies. The promises and lies are not being responded to. Investors begin to pull back from stocks, bonds and even gold. 5/5

In China, some have developed immunity, disregarding CCP efforts to paint a picture of prosperity over a collapsing economy. Official sources have lost all credibility for these people. 2/5

The American public refused to have their worries about affordability dismissed as a 'vibecession', that the economy was growing and that they were only imagining having a harder time paying bills. News reports of record stock prices and AI wonders failed to improve the mood, 3/5

substack.comRajesh Raut (@rrocket83)The Rigged Game: Washington, Tehran, and the Art of the Preempt The War in Iran kicked off exactly when it did because we had to preempt the Iranians from preempting us, just as we planned to preempt...

28 Mar

I just wrote my first note on Substack substack.com/profile/4758...

open.substack.comSymmetric Finance - 1The Great Asymmetric Theft: Why Your House is a Human Shield

26 Mar

open.substack.com/pub/rrocket8... #econsky

open.substack.comArteries of Exchange - 6The Final Schism: Why the Priesthood Will Fight the Cure

26 Mar

open.substack.com/pub/rrocket8... #ecomsky

25 Mar

Last year, the Revolutionary Guard was an instrument wielded by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Today, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is an instrument wielded by the Revolutionary Guard.

24 Mar

At the beginning of the year, the hierarchy in Iran was the clerics followed by the Revolutionary Guard followed by the President and the civilian government. 1/3

24 Mar

Now, it appears the hierarchy is the Revolutionary Guard, the clerics, who voted for "Supreme Leader" at the point of a gun followed by the President and the civilian government. 2/3

24 Mar

For the Revolutionary Guard, this conflict is existential, because any popular government would confiscate their wealth and execute them. Good luck k negotiating an end to the war with them. 3/3

open.substack.comThe Case for a "Default Lottery"Why We Need More Loan Defaults

23 Mar

Don't laugh. This is serious and important. open.substack.com/pub/rrocket8...

23 Mar

Donald Trump, as usual, is clueless. The Revolutionary Guard which apparently control the country since Israeli precision bombing removed the handful of Vivian leaders that the guard to9k orders from. Donald Trump has threatened to hit power station that would make life more miserable for civilians.

23 Mar

Because Trump knows the Revolutionary Guard are so concerned about civilian welfare that they 40,000 during recent riots and hundreds of thousands since the founding of the Islamic Republic. So hit them where it doesn't hurt.

22 Mar

Is there a pool on the number of American Travelers shot by ICE agents at airports in the next week?

open.substack.comArteries of Exchange - 4The 2019 Heart Attack: A Mechanical Failure of the Repo Bridge

16 Mar

open.substack.com/pub/rrocket8... #ecomsky

15 Mar

Donald Trump totally has the Iran War under control, but if any former ally or China have any spare destroyers that aren't busy, they are welcome to help keeping the Hormuz Strait open to shipping.

12 Mar

Europe needs oil/ Russia has oil. Should Europe invade Russia?

10 Mar

In the Trump administration, the cons outnumber the pros.

open.substack.com/pub/rrocket8...

10 Mar

open.substack.comThe Arteries of Exchange -1The Two-Factor System: Why Cash Isn’t Always King

9 Mar

Donald Trump achieved Regine Change in Iran. It has gotten worse.

open.substack.comThe Great AI PivotWhy the Hype is Horizontal, but the Value is Vertical

9 Mar

New Post" open.substack.com/pub/rrocket8...

7 Mar

Should Ukraine declare War on Iran?

6 Mar

Donald Trump expects Iran to surrender after Isreal has bombed all the I Iranian leaders capable of surrendering. Clueless.

2 Mar

What would the GDP of the last two years if you excluded the frantic construction of data centers to support take over of the economy by large language models? The rotation in the S&P 500 suggest that investors see the AI Bubble and the robust economy as two separate things. #econskyq

14 Jan

Donald Trump has expressed his support for the protesters in Iran. The protesters in Minnesota, however...

14 Jan

Does it make sense to move BEA and BLS from the Commerce Department to the Federal Reverse Board of Governors, so that future government shutdowns would not leave the FOMC without the economic data to make the best possible policy decision. #econosky

12 Jan

After Iran, Russia and China collapse, the entire might of the U.S. military can focus on the most dangerous threat of all: Greenland

14 Dec 2025

Market Liquidity is investor's willingness to exchange their cash for risky assets. If investors are worried, they hold cash and riskless assets, liquidity is tight and the price of risky assets falls. If investors are complacent, they bid up the price of risky assets. #econsky

8 Dec 2025

While the Trump administration likes to cosplay as fascists, real fascists would strengthen the power of the state. The Trump administration opened with DOGE, arbitrarily shutdown agencies, and enjoyed the longest shutdown of the Federal government. This is the work of Anarchists,not Fascists.

5 Nov 2025

Another nail in the coffin for the Black Hole mythology.

29 Oct 2025

The FOMC is handicapped because the recent payroll report is not available. Does it make sense to move the BLS from the Commerce Department to the Board of Govenors of the Federal Reserve?

18 Oct 2025

Trump's liberation day trade offensive exposed America's weakness to rare earth. We can depend on the Chinese Communist Party to not exploit this weakness due to their respect for Trump's intelligence and the goodness of their hearts.

8 Oct 2025

Donald Trump Grinches 750,000 Federal workers. No pay for three months beore Christmas! 😬

5 Oct 2025

Not all politicians are liars; some are just stupid and some are both.