Ryan Harp

Ryan Harp

@ryanharp.bsky.social

Assistant Professor at the University of Minnesota Department of Soil, Water, and Climate & Climate Adaptation Partnership | Researching topics ranging from precipitation and drought to how our climate affects our health

118 followers140 following11 posts

Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

🎉 I am very excited to share that I've started a new position as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Soil, Water, and Climate with the University of Minnesota! 🎉 I'm looking forward to expanding my research portfolio into hydroclimatic variability and links between climate and health! 🌊 🌎 🏥

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Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

I will be recruiting a student (MS or PhD) to join my group in the near future—stay tuned. Please reach out if you or someone you know are interested in exploring hydroclimatic variability/predictability or the connections between health and our climate, especially vector-borne disease. 🌧️ 🌡️ 🦟

Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

Finally, I will not be changing my sports allegiances and will be taking no further questions on the matter. Go Badgers! 🦡🔴⚪

Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

🎉 I am very excited to share that I've started a new position as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Soil, Water, and Climate with the University of Minnesota! 🎉 I'm looking forward to expanding my research portfolio into hydroclimatic variability and links between climate and health! 🌊 🌎 🏥

Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

I will also continue with the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership as the Faculty Research Lead for Climate Impacts and Health working to build climate resilience for Minnesotans across the state!

Ryan Harp reposted

Eos
@eos.org

West Nile virus can cause a potentially fatal neuroinvasive infection. Scientists are taking a regional approach to improve forecasting of the virus. Research by @ryanharp.bsky.social @noaa.gov & colleagues from @cires.colorado.edu and #CDC in @geohealthjournal.bsky.social. eos.org/research-spo...

eos.orgNew Method Could Improve U.S. Forecasting of West Nile Virus - EosAn innovative model uses regional climate data and records of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease to outperform existing forecasts, potentially helping communities prepare.
Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

New paper out! We developed a new approach to West Nile virus forecasting that is the first nationwide attempt to beat a benchmark standard (by 22%!). The key advancement was aggregating county data to regions which boosted signals that were obscured by small case counts. doi.org/10.1029/2025...

doi.orgA Regionally Determined Climate‐Informed West Nile Virus Forecast TechniqueAggregating county-level case data to the regional-level enhanced the signal of the spatially varying effects of climate on case counts Drought and temperature were the most common climate factor...
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Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

Note that this forecast is not operational but an advancement and foundation to be built on. While we were able to produce improvements at the regional scale, finer scale forecasts (county-level) are needed for decision-making.

Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

For more info on the state of WNV forecasting, see our evaluation of the 2020 (doi.org/10.1186/s130...) and 2022 WNV forecasting challenges (doi.org/10.1186/s130...).

doi.orgEvaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA - Parasites & VectorsBackground West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (ra...
Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

New paper out! We developed a new approach to West Nile virus forecasting that is the first nationwide attempt to beat a benchmark standard (by 22%!). The key advancement was aggregating county data to regions which boosted signals that were obscured by small case counts. doi.org/10.1029/2025...

doi.orgA Regionally Determined Climate‐Informed West Nile Virus Forecast TechniqueAggregating county-level case data to the regional-level enhanced the signal of the spatially varying effects of climate on case counts Drought and temperature were the most common climate factor...
Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

Our model also allowed for regional differences in the climate factors that informed predictions, though drought and temperature were the most common climate factors affecting WNV between regions. Here's how monthly drought affects WNV in the upcoming season across regions (red = more WNV):

Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

When we use these relationships to inform our forecasts, we were able to see nationwide forecast improvements of ~22% over a benchmark forecast! This varied by region, as you can see here:

Ryan Harp
@ryanharp.bsky.social

May as well make my first post a new job announcement: I've begun a new position as an applied climate scientist with the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership! I'm excited to continue researching climate and health and build climate resilience in Minnesota and the Midwest! 🌎🌦️🏥

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