Sam Hoppen

Is yards before contact an offensive line stat? Less than we treat it like one. I took a deep dive on a stat that we may have been reading wrong, using a couple of different modeling techniques to explain why. You can read it FREE on my Substack 🔗⤵️

How the game was won: Bills vs. Lions Josh Allen

How the game was won: Bills vs. Lions Josh Allen

TNF preview: Bills 🦬 vs. Lions 🦁 Should be a barnburner of a game tonight as the Bills christen their new stadium! The Bills' defense didn't get much pressure against Houston, but with Detroit's OL in shambles it gives them an opportunity to make Jared Goff uncomfortable.

TNF preview: Bills 🦬 vs. Lions 🦁 Should be a barnburner of a game tonight as the Bills christen their new stadium! The Bills' defense didn't get much pressure against Houston, but with Detroit's OL in shambles it gives them an opportunity to make Jared Goff uncomfortable.

Posted on the other site just how efficient red zone scoring was last week, which certainly contributed to the above-average scoring in Week 1:

Grain of salt because it's the Raiders D, but the Dolphins had 4 explosive passes on Sunday, 2 of which came from Caleb Douglas. Malik Willis has been one of the most efficient downfield passers the past couple years so think they gotta attack that more to generate explosives.

Offensive and defensive success rates by down:

Updated to include MNF:

Running back and team high-value touches (HVT):

Breaking down team performance by various components, measured by total EPA (all components are measured in a way that positive EPA is better):

Offensive and defensive success rates by down:

EPA per drive team tiers

Updated to include MNF:

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates for NFL games in Week 1:

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates for NFL games in Week 1:

How the game was won: 49ers vs. Rams The 49ers had their way on offense for most of the night, but more impressive may have been their defensive performance. The 41% pressure rate that SF had last night was better than any single-game pressure rate they had last year.

I'm not sure how you can show such ease moving the ball on one drive and then as soon as you get stopped one (1) time realize gaining two yards would be impossible

Different continent, same conservative Kyle

Quick preview for tonight's game in Australia between the Rams and the 49ers! The 49ers' offense will be at full strength for the first time that anyone plays this daunting Rams defense. Excited to see what parts of the defense Shanahan targets and how effective they'll be!

How the game was won: Seahawks vs. Patriots Turnovers end up being the difference in a game where both teams showed plenty of inconsistency.

football

Word on the street is we've got an NFL game tonight?? So, here's my matchup preview for our Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks! Will be fascinated to see how New England handles Seattle's pass rush tonight. Note: data is from 2025 season.

Week 1 NFL Composite Power Ratings! Sources: @espn.com (FPI) Robby Greerre (nfelo) @inpredict.bsky.social (Inpredictable) Kevin Cole (Unexpected Points) @ftnfantasy.com/@aaronschatz.com (DVOA) @profootballfocus.bsky.social (PFF)

Word on the street is we've got an NFL game tonight?? So, here's my matchup preview for our Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks! Will be fascinated to see how New England handles Seattle's pass rush tonight. Note: data is from 2025 season.

Just like that, my division preview series is done! Saving the NFC West for last, I covered: 🔴 How the Cardinals find success without competing 🟡 Why the 49ers are legit contenders 🔱 What keeps the Seahawks from repeating 🐏 The Rams' super team with super aspirations 🔗⤵️

My penultimate division preview is here as I cover the NFC East: 🔵 Why I'm not buying into the Giants hype 🪖 How Jayden Daniels has covered up Washington's flaws 🤠 If the Cowboys' defense can live up to its billing 🦅 The Eagles' enigmatic offense 🔗⤵️

Measuring pass-rush win rate for defensive ends on pass rush reps split between plays in which they were and were not stunting: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

Measuring pass-rush win rate for defensive ends on pass rush reps split between plays in which they were and were not stunting: Data via @sumersports.bsky.social

Some Friday reading for you all - my NFC South division preview! I wrote about: 🐈‍⬛ Deciding on Bryce Young's future ⚜️ The Saints on the rise 🐦‍⬛ Speculation on how the Falcons will defend anyone 🏴‍☠️ A perfectly fine and average Bucs team 🔗⤵️