Sam Huckstep

Really useful research, relevant to the many policymakers that say 'how can our aid reduce emigration?' 'On average, we find no evidence that irrigation offsets the effect of drought [shocks] on migration intentions': irrigation may enable migration for some while replacing it for others. BUT...

... 'one result shows where irrigation does help. When we measure drought exposure cumulatively over the preceding five years – capturing sustained rather than one-off stress – irrigation clearly dampens the migration response.' ''This suggests that irrigation is better thought of as insurance...

Remittances are a huge & increasingly important financial flow. Remittances to LMICs are larger than FDI and ODA combined! But there's a data gap on bilateral remittance flows. To fill the gap, @mclem.org and I have updated the modelling done by the World Bank's remittances unit, now disbanded.

Remittance flows to low-income countries are relatively subdued. This is likely to be because low-income countries' citizens struggle to access migration opportunities to high-income countries.

Remittances are a huge & increasingly important financial flow. Remittances to LMICs are larger than FDI and ODA combined! But there's a data gap on bilateral remittance flows. To fill the gap, @mclem.org and I have updated the modelling done by the World Bank's remittances unit, now disbanded.

For 59 countries, remittances were worth more than 5% of GNI. As aid budgets shrink and investment flows remain volatile, remittances are becoming an ever larger share of the external finance reaching poorer countries.

Remittances are a huge & increasingly important financial flow. Remittances to LMICs are larger than FDI and ODA combined! But there's a data gap on bilateral remittance flows. To fill the gap, @mclem.org and I have updated the modelling done by the World Bank's remittances unit, now disbanded.

A really interesting article on UK coastal erosion and its implications. The UK has a lot to learn from other countries on this. 'The scale of the threat from coastal erosion means “we are going to have to shift to more of an acceptance of not intervening any more and enabling retreat”'.

Although the Climate Change Committee has noted it will need to be. Insurance also won't be much help: 'Unlike flood damage... there is no UK insurance product for coastal erosion because insurers treat coastal retreat as a “virtual certainty”... rather than an accidental risk.'

A really interesting article on UK coastal erosion and its implications. The UK has a lot to learn from other countries on this. 'The scale of the threat from coastal erosion means “we are going to have to shift to more of an acceptance of not intervening any more and enabling retreat”'.

Driven by aid cuts to UNHCR and others, there is a growing goal of increased refugee self-reliance. It has been proposed that this can (at least in part) be achieved by increasing refugees' access to remote work. A new Guardian article suggests this probably won't be happening in the age of AI.

'Jobs such as transcription, data entry, translation and web research have declined by about 50% since 2022... Growth of popular AI tools coincided with a measurable drop in many of the tech jobs promoted as paths to refugee self-sufficiency.'

Interesting from @therestpolitics.bsky.social interview w/ Shabana Mahmood on, basically, immigration & industrial policy: “Since I’ve been in the Home Office, the sheer number of requests I get from colleagues across government, other departments, ‘Can I have ten visas over here for welders’... "

“I’m like, you’re telling me that we can’t find ten welders in Britain? It’s become a lever that is easy to pull.” Asked whether cabinet ministers were literally phoning her to ask for visas for ten welders, Mahmood replied: “I have a conversation like that at least once every week or two...

I've never before attended a Mass at which there was a standing ovation at the end of the homily. I was very impressed by Cardinal McElroy. A blistering rebuke of the Trump administration's treatment of migrants and refugees, delivered with gentleness.

An excellent article in the FT. On climate adaptation: 'The choice is not between paying or not paying. It is between paying earlier for mitigation and adaptation, or paying more later for disaster relief, reconstruction, food insecurity and displaced populations.' But...

... They are also poorer, which means domestic savings are typically insufficient to finance the investment needed to curb emissions and adapt to climate change.' And just as climate finance is inadequate, loan financing is becoming less attainable as rates rise.

An excellent article in the FT. On climate adaptation: 'The choice is not between paying or not paying. It is between paying earlier for mitigation and adaptation, or paying more later for disaster relief, reconstruction, food insecurity and displaced populations.' But...

Thailand, hosting the 29th ASEAN Labour Ministers' Meeting later this month, have put out an interesting press statement. (Interesting, that is, by the standards of what is the important but undeniably boring policy area of skills recognition):

It will also pilot the ASEAN Digital Skills Passport, aimed at giving workers a recognized record of their skills and qualifications that travels with them across the region— helping workers adapt to changing industries while [helping] employers... to identify candidates with the right skill sets'

Thailand, hosting the 29th ASEAN Labour Ministers' Meeting later this month, have put out an interesting press statement. (Interesting, that is, by the standards of what is the important but undeniably boring policy area of skills recognition):

'The meeting will address workforce challenges shared across the region— including the transition to digital and green economies and the changing workforce needs brought on by aging societies...' Very good: these are key areas, to which skills policy needs to respond.

Interesting graph on apprenticeship applications from a new paper by @rwi.bsky.social. 'Green' occupations demonstrate much more resilient interest among applicants than non-green. But apprenticeship applications have cratered across the board- hard to see how Germany produces the workers needed.

Paper:

Useful new European Labour Authority report on labour shortages and surpluses in Europe in 2025. Among other things, 'the observed growth in both employment in green occupations and green skills requirements underlines a widening skills gap...

A bracing new report by the UK engineering skills charity Engenuity finds that skill gaps in the UK's manufacturing and engineering sectors cost an annual total of... £5.2 billion. That's a pretty mammoth sum, but includes only firm-level impact. It doesn't include second-order effects, eg. fiscal.

Late to this, but interesting to see that Germany became the leading provider of ODA in 2025. www.oecd.org/en/data/insi...